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Monday, Feb. 14, 2005

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  In a soul-searching speech to Labour Party loyalists, Blair acknowledged that the war had strained his relationship with the party and the country.

"And now you, the British people, have to sit down and decide whether you want this relationship to continue," Blair said.

The government is widely forecast to win re-election in national polls expected in May, and most analysts agree there is little chance Blair will not serve another term.

In the latest poll last week, his Labour Party had actually stretched its lead over the main opposition Conservatives to 41 percent versus 32 percent, enough to secure re-election with a strong majority in the House of Commons. Labour was up 3 percentage points from a poll earlier this year while the Conservatives were down 1 percentage point.

But party strategists fear electoral apathy, coupled with protest votes over the war, could erode the government's majority in the House of Commons, or, in the worst-case scenario, hand a victory to the opposition.

The election is an important personal test for Blair, whose credibility was badly dented by the war and accusations that his government exaggerated the threat posed by Saddam Hussein.

'Committment and Belief'

"I understand why some people feel angry, not just over Iraq but many of the difficult decisions we have made. And as ever, a lot is about me," said Blair, addressing Labour's spring conference.

"I'm still the same person. Older, a little wiser, I hope. But still with the same commitment and belief. And I believe together we still make the best team for Britain and its future. I have the same passion and hunger as when I first walked through the door of 10 Downing Street."

Blair was once regarded as the party's most prized electoral asset. A charismatic and dynamic leader, he helped catapult Labour to power in 1997, ending 18 years of Conservative rule.

The government was re-elected in another landslide in 2001, buoyed by economic success and pledging further investment in Britain's schools, hospitals and public transport.

But the divisive Iraq war has overshadowed most of the government's second term and eroded public faith in Blair's judgment. His popularity has been further dented by his close relationship with President Bush and the perception that he slavishly follows Washington's foreign policy without exerting any real influence.

But many analysts believe Blair has weathered the worst of the Iraq storm. His personal ratings have improved markedly from last year's slump and the successful elections in Iraq have provided some vindication for the war.

His speech Sunday was notably different in tone to his conference address in 2003, when Blair defiantly faced down his critics and defended his forthright leadership style. This time, he was conciliatory.

"In this second term, in particular after September 11th, events have sometimes taken me far from home. But no matter how far, I have never forgotten the top line of my job spec is to work for Britain and the British people. They are the boss, always will be," he said.

The date of the election has not been announced, but Britain's main political parties already have moved into election mode. During the three-day conference in Gateshead, northern England, ministers set out the key themes of Labour's campaign, pledging economic stability, to improve Britain's schools and childcare facilities, and crack down on crime and illegal immigration.

Blair has said that if re-elected to a third term, he intends to serve the full five years but will not seek a fourth term. There are no term limits in Britain.

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