LOS ANGELES -- The most interesting thing about the race to fill a vacant U.S. House seat in California is not the likely winner.
The GOP candidate, former car dealer John Campbell, is so confident of victory in Tuesday's special election that he already has an airline ticket to Washington.
But the campaign for one of the most secure Republican districts in the nation has spotlighted an issue that could play out in congressional races across the country next year: illegal immigration.
In a district that is less than a two-hour drive to Mexico, the candidacy of Jim Gilchrist, a founder of the Minuteman Project civilian border patrols, is being driven by outrage over weak border security and the tide of illegal immigration.
A closer-than-expected finish could push immigration policy to the forefront as candidates gear up for midterm congressional races next year and, later, the 2008 presidential contest.
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"This is one of the biggest cultural divides in the Republican Party," said Democratic consultant Bill Carrick. Gilchrist, a former Republican running as a candidate for the American Independent Party, "is openly challenging the president on this issue."
The House seat in the conservative, coastal district was held for 17 years by Rep. Christopher Cox (news, bio, voting record), who left earlier this year to become President Bush's choice to head the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Campbell is reliably conservative on issues such as abortion, spending and taxes, but he breaks from the president when it comes to the administration's guest-worker plan.
Bush wants to catch more foreigners crossing the border while increasing the number of temporary work visas for those who will take jobs that Americans are unwilling to fill.
"We've got to control these borders first, then we can talk about a guest-worker program," said Campbell spokesman Jim Terry.
Gilchrist, in making immigration the centerpiece of his campaign, describes Campbell as too accommodating on the issue. He advocates sending thousands more guards to patrol borders.
Gilchrist's supporters are hoping a better-than-expected showing will help enlist congressional candidates in border states where immigration could be a dominant issue.
Whether he wins or loses, Gilchrist said, he has made a point by tapping into frustration over illegal immigration that will have a growing political effect nationwide.
"I will not be arrogant and say, 'Look I'm going to win,'" Gilchrist said. "The real priceless commodity is grass-roots support" that will carry on.
Three other candidates are on the ballot: Democrat Steve Young, an attorney; Libertarian Bruce Cohen, a real estate broker; and high school teacher Bea Tiritilli, 42, the Green Party candidate.