The China Threat

The China Threat

Geoff Metcalf
Monday, Jan. 31, 2005

We are at war. It is a war against terrorism. We are fighting an enemy that is not a geographic eight-digit grid coordinate or a specific tin-pot dictator in a funny hat. It is a real and imminent threat to our national security and our way of life.

However, there is an axiom that crystallizes a looming ‘strategic' threat: "When you are up to your armpits in alligators, it is easy to forget that the original objective was to drain the swamp."

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We MUST continue to fight terror. We must kill the bad guys, destroy their financial and logistical lifelines, and we must win.

Traditionally, America has focused our force structure on ‘preparing for the last war'. Today, we seem locked into preparing for the current war. That is necessary, but potentially myopic.

Concurrent with developing a force structure and Table of Organization and Equipment best suited for fighting the war we have, we ALSO must contribute assets to strategic long-range threats. A growing fear is that we are not doing that sufficiently.

Steve Mosher is the author of "Hegemon," a book that very clearly details the real ‘China Threat'. Two detailed interviews I conducted with Mosher can be found at http://www.geoffmetcalf.com/qa/19656.html and http://www.geoffmetcalf.com/qa/22343.html.

Recently, two articles underscore the reality of that ‘China Threat'.

The Financial Times wrote about the Chinese IBM deal. (http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0c096060-70d4-11d9-b572-00000e2511c8.html)

Led by Duncan Hunter, chairman of the House Armed Services committee, the Republicans want a full review of whether the acquisition could endanger US security interests. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) – a secretive interagency group – is today expected to launch a rarely triggered 45- day investigation.

NewsMax ran a piece by Charles R. Smith about Russia offering long-range bombers to China (Long-range Bombers for Beijing).

Russia is now offering China one of its most advanced long-range bombers in service – the famed TU-22 "Backfire." As predicted by this reporter, Russia will use newly announced joint military exercises with China to showcase new weapons for sale, including the supersonic Backfire bomber. …
The proposed Backfire sale is but one example of a major war yet to come. One warning of many. The sleeping dragon is awake and we may have to face it in combat. The best way to guarantee such a war is to not prepare for it.

We cannot and should not divert focus from the immediate demands of fighting the war on terror. However, concurrently, it is imperative that we (Congress and the Pentagon) direct resources to develop and establish the necessary force structure and weapons systems necessary to deal with the probably China Threat down the road.

China continues to build its military and technology. The Clinton administration provided China with a 10-year boost in satellite technology (either as a bribe or gratuity), and the immediate result was China's move to create a Chinese GPS system separate and apart from the current U.S. global system.

‘Preparing the battlefield' is a martial basic. Once upon a time it consisted of archers attriting the enemy. Later it became artillery ‘softening' the enemy. Delivery systems have improved with laser designators and now GPS ‘smart bombs'.

In the future, ‘preparing the battlefield' will include disrupting command and control mechanisms. With two rival GPS systems in place, we can anticipate that prior to any tanks or missiles being deployed, phase one will consist of trying to take out satellites. ‘Preparation of the battlefield' isn't going to happen just ‘on the battlefield' but also in space.

As the Chinese build their military and technology, it is imperative that the U.S. develop systems and procedures for

Protecting our satellites
Disrupting or destroy enemy satellites

Smith observes that the recommended defense cuts in significant U.S. weapons systems is a big mistake … bureaucratic brain flatulence. In the wake of the Chinese acquisition of Backfire bombers, eliminating the F-22 and Navy carriers is beyond counterintuitive – it is flat-out dangerous.

China's Backfires are not wanted or needed to chill college dissidents or Internet bloggers. They are designed and intended to threaten the U.S., Japan and all regional threats to Chinese hegemony.

Some geopolitical Pollyanna-ism ‘assumes' that the Chicoms will be defeated by dissidents and the power of the Internet …"Knowledge is Power!" It is a nice thought/dream. But what if the hoped-for (prayed-for) popular uprising doesn't happen? What if the established oligarchy is successful in repressing dissent? What is Plan B?

Plan B had better be developing the weapons, systems and force structure to fight and win.

China recognizes it cannot defeat the U.S militarily NOW. However, it doesn't intend to pick a fight NOW. The Chinese (by their written word, plans and actions) are preparing for what they see as the inevitable future confrontation – a confrontation that will take place at a time when China IS prepared and the U.S. is not.

We cannot allow that to happen. Arguments to the contrary are suicidal.

Editor's note:

Tommy Franks' best-selling book "American Soldier" – FREE OFFER – Click Here Now

CIA Translation of Secret Chinese Military Manual – Details Here

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