John LeBoutillier
Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004

1) Friday's Labor Department announcement that a paltry 32,000 new jobs were created in July is a devastating blow to the Bush re-election effort. Analysts had been predicting that upward of 215,000 new jobs would be created. (Compounding this problem was the downward revisions on job creation in May and June.)

A cornerstone of the Bush campaign was the claim that "we have turned the corner" economically and we are on the right path. But these new numbers undercut that claim and give powerful new ammunition to the Kerry campaign.

2) The corresponding 300-plus point drop in the Dow Jones Thursday and Friday also points out the fragile nature of today's markets. Worry about the "recovery" still motivates traders.

Politically this drop could not come at a worse time, as a big chunk of today's Bush voters are members of the 'investor class.' Thus, economic troubles such as these cut right into Bush's base. If they feel it in their portfolios, their intensity to support Bush may drop off a bit while Kerry's supporters are white-hot with the desire to remove Bush from office at all cost.

3) The rising prices of gasoline are a big factor in this new layer of malaise, fear and sluggishness. Consumers have only so much money to spend; extra money spent at the pump means less money spent elsewhere. And that means companies worry about spending on expansion and thus they do not hire new American workers. The classic definition of a vicious cycle.

Can't you just see Kerry teeing off on Bush and Cheney in the debates? "Mr. President, with all due respect, you and the vice president were oilmen with contacts worldwide in the oil industry. Why are you letting the Saudi royal family gouge average Americans? And if they are going to do that during an election year, what will they do after the election?"

Frank Luntz’s Cincinnati focus group two weeks ago went "off the charts" when Kerry attacked the Saudi royal family. Look for this to be brought up a lot in the coming weeks and especially in the debates.

Summary: Politically - not morally - Kerry is in a much, much stronger position today than Bush is. He has virtually everything going for him: Iraq remains a net negative politically, oil prices are way too high, the markets are nervous, the electorate is 'sour' and 60-40 for a "change in the White House."

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Bush's attempts so far - to the tune of over $80 million - to paint Kerry as a flip-flopping lefty haven't done enough to make him 'un-electable' the way his father's staff tore Michael Dukakis apart back in 1988.

Kerry - just like Bill Clinton - has been running for president since he was a teenager and met President John F. Kennedy. He has devoted everything he has to one thing only: becoming president.

He is so close now that he can smell it.

George W. Bush, on the other hand, is today caught in a vortex of bad news and the inability to control events to his advantage. He is really in a tough spot.

Can he still win? Yes, of course. But he is now so weakened that he needs to rely not on his own skills but on a huge mistake by the other side.

Kerry is no Al Gore. He is not going to sigh, roll his eyes and make up huge fabrications in the debates. Instead, he is going to be relentlessly on the attack.

Kerry is ahead in every way right now. True, there are still three months to go. But the trends are all pro-Kerry.