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Monday, July 26, 2004

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  "Seventy-five percent of this week is that he will keep you safe, and 25 percent is that he is a man of conviction," one senior Kerry aide explained.

"The country does not need to be won over to the fact that it wants change," added veteran Democratic pollster Stanley B. Greenberg. "It needs to be won over to the fact that Kerry is the person who can lead that change."

Democratic strategists are fretting that many voters have received much of their limited information on Kerry from Bush TV commercials portraying him as a flip-flopper on the issues.

"Voters feel comfortable that Kerry is smart and experienced, but when you start going beyond that, the only thing that emerges is that he has a personality that seems distant, and some sense he straddles on issues," Democratic pollster Peter Hart told the Times. "Many of the positive elements of his story are just not known."

Kenneth Goldstein, a University of Wisconsin political scientist, opined that the Democratic convention represents "Kerry's last best chance" to tell his personal story.

"If Kerry does not convey a story with swing voters that … provides a partial shield for what is going to be an onslaught by Bush … it gives Bush an opportunity to complete the job of defining Kerry and chipping away at his support," added Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio.

At least one senior GOP strategist, however, sees the tactic to play down Bush and emphasize Kerry as a sign of weakness:

"Kerry is weak and they have to deal with that weakness. Part of that is the Bush campaign ads [attacking Kerry], but that ain't most of it. It is that people are looking at him and saying, 'Massachusetts liberal, flip-flopper.' So I think they are sitting there saying 'We have a real problem and we have to deal with it.' "

In any event, the convention in Boston may provide less of a venue to showcase candidate Kerry than in previous years.

According to the Times report, the broadcast networks will air three hours from each convention — the least on record.

And there’s catching up to do – as far as candidate Kerry is concerned. Surveys and focus groups consistently show that many Americans still don't know much about Kerry.

Case-in-point: a Times Poll last week found that one-third of registered voters said they didn't know Kerry well enough to decide whether he would be a better president than Bush.

During the three key network coverage hours at the convention, Democrats hope to highlight his domestic and foreign agenda, as well as flesh the candidate out.

Aiding in the effort will be daughters Alexandra and Vanessa, stepson Chris Heinz and the senator's wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, and colleagues such as Sen. Joseph R. Biden, D-Del.

In the end, however, the task of humanizing Kerry will fall on his own shoulders.

"The acceptance speech is the ballgame," said Democratic media consultant Mandy Grunwald, who helped plan the 1992 convention for Clinton. "That is the moment voters tune in and make a judgment."

Editor's note: