John LeBoutillier
Thursday, May 20, 2004

President Bush's tumbling approval ratings have sent a chill throughout Capitol Hill - especially among worried incumbents in difficult races this fall.

With his approval rating approaching that of his father's at the same stage of the re-election race in 1992, this President Bush journeys up to the Hill today to try to calm down a nervous GOP and explain the latest plan on how to handle the clearly deteriorating Iraq situation.

Yesterday's spat between Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert and Senator John McCain over ‘sacrifice' and who knows what about patriotism is a clear sign that tempers are fraying.

McCain has called on the GOP to rescind the last two tax cuts to pay for the Iraq war. He says there needs to be "a shared sense of sacrifice in a war."

Hastert, with Majority Leader Tom Delay standing next to him, blasted McCain - who spent almost 6 years as a POW in Hanoi - and said he ought to go to Bethesda Naval Hospital and Walter Reade Army Hospital to see "real sacrifice - the wounded soldiers out there."

What in the world is the Speaker thinking?

He is giving McCain just the opening he is looking for to jump on Kerry's ticket.

Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, a McCain ally, is also growing more critical of the Bush White House. He calls Bush, "a very isolated President."

Mississippi Senator Trent Lott is calling for the return of former White House aide Karen Hughes - as if one staffer can change public opinion of a President.

Indeed, there is a Perfect Storm of bad events that is taking Bush into the Danger Zone for November:

1. Iraq is a total mess. Is it ‘winnable' any longer? What defines a ‘win'? Or is it descending into total chaos?

Some conservatives are now coming out and voicing their total disgust for the whole adventure.

And more and more people just want "to get out of Iraq."

Bush has lost the initiative on this signature issue of his presidency. It appears he, too, has no idea what to do over there.

2. Soaring gas prices are souring everyone on everything. This ‘hidden tax' is undermining any earlier optimism about the economy. Inflation is creeping back into the cost of most goods because of it.

3. The result? People - overwhelmingly - want a "new direction" and "someone new" in November. That, of course, is bad news for the Bush-Cheney Campaign.

Thus they might have to resort to the politics of personal destruction and hope they can find enough dirt on Kerry to destroy him after the July Democratic Convention.

This is risky strategy: it assumes that there is something to find that hasn't already been found by any of Kerry's many opponents over the years. And it also opens a rebuttal from the Kerry forces.

And, anyway, most voters dismiss ‘dirt-digging' late in campaigns.

No, the best course for Bush is this: somehow calm down Iraq - quickly -and get gas prices to begin dropping - soon.

If he does, he has a chance.

If not, he may be another Jimmy Carter.

John LeBoutillier, a former U.S. congressman, is an author and columnist. E-mail John Leboutillier.