Jon E. Dougherty
Monday, May 17, 2004

But that is becoming increasingly difficult because insurgencies taking place are reportedly being fueled by outside forces.

Ilan Berman of the American Foreign Policy Council says outside influences and warring factions -- from Iran to Syria to terror groups Hezbollah and Hamas -- are filtering into Iraq and mingling with insurgent factions there to create a worsening security situation.

Long-term stability in Iraq, he argues in a recent op-ed in the New York Post, requires addressing the issue of external influence, and unequivocally demonstrating to foreign players that their troublemaking carries consequences.

"We certainly believe, and have indications, there are foreign fighters involved" in Iraq, a senior military official with Central Command, which is in charge of operations in Iraq, told NewsMax.

The military official could not provide details about nationalities and whether neighboring countries were officially sponsoring the additional resistance encountered by U.S. forces.

Sphere of Influence

However, U.S. intelligence agencies say, Iran -- a country labeled by President Bush as an "axis of evil" supporting terrorism and instability throughout the world -- has a sphere of influence over such groups as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad, the BBC reported last summer.

And, as Berman said, some of those groups have filtered into Iraq. The groups have even been charged with harboring al-Qaeda members.

"Iran has got a very active and professional propaganda apparatus that's putting in high-quality television and radio programs into Iraq, and they . . . malign," Patrick Clawson, an Iran-watcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the British news agency.

"They spread malicious and inaccurate rumors designed to make U.S. forces look like they're insensitive to Islam, and that's not helpful."

The Jamestown Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, says getting confirmation of which groups are fighting alongside Iraqi insurgents has been "frustrating," and as such have been difficult to verify.

"For example," the foundation said in the July 17, 2003 issue of "Chechnya Weekly," a weekly publication discussing that region's ongoing problems, "vague reports have been circulating for months about the alleged presence of Chechen fighters alongside militants from Syria and other Arab countries in combat against U.S. troops in Iraq."

The publication said a U.S. commander had claimed Chechens had been killed by American forces in the fighting, but "Chechnya Weekly has repeatedly asked the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon for more information, without success."

Still, Jamestown analysts said British Prime Minister Tony Blair "has personally repeated the vague reports about Chechen fighters in Iraq and has treated them as if they were established fact."

Consequences

As Berman said, involvement in Iraq by outside governments or groups will likely carry consequences in the long run. Indeed, the administration may already be in the process of doling out consequences to those who are suspected of contributing to the growing chaos in Iraq.

Though approved by Congress last fall, President Bush waited until May 11 to impose sanctions on Syria, for allegedly building weapons of mass destruction and for allowing Islamic fighters to maintain safe harbor in Syria and to cross over into Iraq to fight U.S. forces.

The sanctions ban all U.S. exports to Syria except food and medicine and they forbid direct flights between Syria and the United States.

Syria hosts Palestinian militant groups such as Islamic Jihad, but Syrian President Bashir Assad said last week he would not expel anyone.

Assad claimed his country is doing what it can to control its vast border with Iraq. He also argues the country is not seeking WMD. But Middle East Newsline reported in its May 13 online issue that China had sent technological and diplomatic delegations to Damascus in recent months in an effort to boost the Arab nation's missile capabilities.

Also Libya, which recently has improved its relations with the United States, announced Thursday it would no longer engage in military trade with Syria, Iran and North Korea -- the latter also an "axis of evil" nation.

Costs

The introduction of outside forces has led to an escalation of violence in Iraq causing an increase in U.S. combat operations. That has led to a substantial increase in the cost of Iraq operations -- far and away above any estimates previously cited by the administration.

"Given current events, the cost of the war is going to be higher and the duration is going to be longer, if we hold to the administration's objectives of trying to create a democratic Iraq," Andrew Krepinevich, a former Pentagon aide who is now executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, told USA Today.

Growing unrest "is going to extend the time horizon over which we'll need to be involved in stabilizing Iraq," he said.

Andrew Cordesman, a former Defense Department official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adds that Bush administration war planners were "decoupled from reality" when they made initial projections.

"The truth of the matter is ... we have seen a whole group of factors come together to raise our costs," Cordesman told the paper.

Analysts have broken down those costs.

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