John LeBoutillier
Monday, Apr. 12, 2004

As Iraq deteriorates and the 9/11 ‘political asset' turns into a political liability for G.W. Bush, his standing with the American voter is declining at a time he had hoped to tear Kerry apart as the spineless leftist he truly is.

Suddenly, 2004 looks like 1992 for yet another President Bush: the perception of a weak economy (contrary to facts and data) combined with investigations and devastating revelations have greatly weakened his re-election prospects.

The new Newsweek poll shows what has happened:

In a head-to-head match-up, Kerry now beats Bush 50 percent – 43 percent

With Ralph Nader factored in - and please remember that he is not even going to be on the ballot this time in many states - Kerry still wins: 46 percent – 42 percent with Nader getting 4 percent.

On the crucial ‘right track - wrong track' question: a whopping 59 percent of the American people believe our country is now headed in the wrong direction; only 33 percent believe it is headed in the right direction.

Incumbent presidents are in deep trouble when a majority of the voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Please keep in mind that Bush's fall and Kerry's rise have happened during the time of Bush's biggest political advantage. This post-primary lull for Kerry - when his campaign is virtually broke while Bush's campaign is bombarding the airwaves with effective attack ads - was the time of most vulnerability for Kerry.

And what has happened?

Kerry has moved ahead - despite Bush's money advantages!

Bush has not just shot himself in his foot, he has taken out a Russian-made AK-47 and literally blown off both his legs.

A few reminders:

1) He ticks off his base with his idiotic immigration proposal - aimed at wooing the Hispanic vote but instead angering everyone across the political spectrum.

2) He further angers his base with excessive Federal spending including increases for the NEA and his unpopular, Kennedyesque - and now dropped - Mars Mission.

3) He bets it all on Iraq - based on the claim that WMD is there - and then backtracks. But now that Iraq is falling apart, the American people are perplexed. Why are we still losing our men? What are we now fighting for? Where is this all headed? Have we actually made things worse? Will it ever end?

4) The Bush White House has mis-handled the 9/11 Commission from Day One: they opposed it and stalled it. Then they were forced by the families to agree to it anyway. And each step of the way - getting documents, meeting the President, getting Condi Rice to testify under oath in public, and the just-released August 6, 2001 PDB - the White House has delayed and then given in.

The result? All of this 9/11 information is coming out in the height of the campaign season instead of two years ago when Bush was riding high and no one was even running against him. They have totally mismanaged the 9/11 investigation.

Bush has counted on his $170 million fund raising program to ruin Kerry between March and the beginning of the fall campaign. His campaign is saturating the airwaves in the 19 battleground states with ads pointing out what a flip-flopping lefty Kerry is (he is!).

But despite that, Bush is actually losing ground to Kerry!

Kerry has been skiing, had shoulder surgery and basically disappeared. Yet he now has gone ahead of Bush.

Conclusion: Bush sinks or swims with Iraq and his entire handing of what was supposedly his strong suit - foreign and defense policy. But so far these are becoming his liabilities - and they even trample on last week's good job news.

To win this election, Bush will have to do a lot more than merely attack Kerry's liberal record. The fact that the most liberal senator is beating Bush tells you just how weak Bush is right now.

November?

Bush can still win but only if Iraq is no longer in flames and Bush is seen as totally on top of the terror threat.

That means he needs to solve a lot of problems in the coming weeks and get the focus back on ‘good times' rather than reacting to the deteriorating situation. Plus his penchant for secrecy is just killing his credibility. Despite the Bush Family's attempt to make G.W. Bush into the Son of Reagan, he is very much looking like the Son of Bush 41. And 2004 looks more like 1992 when Bush 41 got creamed by a lefty - Clinton - than 1984 when a popular conservative Republican President Reagan in the midst of an economic recovery powered by tax cuts swept to re-election against a lefty Democrat, Mondale, who was a duplicate of John Kerry.

John LeBoutillier, a former U.S. congressman, is an author and columnist. E-mail John Leboutillier.