Barry Farber
Friday, March 5, 2004

John has never been known to stagger from alcohol. John, who represented Long Island in Congress, was staggering from what he had just heard on the other side of the room from Arnaud de Borchgrave.

“Arnaud de Borchgrave just told me exactly where Osama bin Laden is,” said John.

Arnaud is one of the most urbane, distinguished and effective journalists and combat correspondents in the world. He’d flown in that very morning from Jordan, where he’d been King Abdullah’s guest for dinner the night before. The day before that he’d been with high Pakistani officials in Karachi who apparently – and with little gee-whiz in their voices – had told him where bin Laden was.

Bin Laden, according to John according to Arnaud according to those well-plugged-in Pakistanis, was in that wild mountainous country in north Pakistan hard by the Afghanistan border where the locals love Osama, hate almost everybody else, have a get-lost-or-else attitude toward the Pakistani government, and would not just turn you down but also kill you if you offered them a billion dollars in gold bullion to betray bin Laden’s precise whereabouts.

So, knowing where bin Laden was turned out to be a little like knowing where your diamond ring was if it fell off your finger and came visibly to rest on the third rail of the New York City subway.

(Congressman Leboutillier recently reminded me that Arnaud had told the relevant American officials precisely which warlord Osama was embedded with. So far as is known, no follow-up by our side was ever attempted.)

Fast-forward to mid-December, when Saddam Hussein was captured. America’s ex-Secretary of State Madeline Albright staggered – likewise with no alcohol – Mort Kondracke with a remark she made while visiting Fox News’s New York headquarters for an interview. She said that she supposed George Bush might have bin Laden too, already captured, examined and de-loused, and planned to tote him out conveniently closer to voting time in November.

With what scorn and vehemence we all denounced such a suggestion!

There have been subsequent developments. Without apologizing to Ms. Albright, I retract my scorn and my vehemence.

The Iranian state news service has reported, citing Pakistani sources, that Osama has indeed been captured and will be rolled out for international verification and display at a time of maximum advantage to President Bush’s re-election effort.

The Pakistani sources have denied the story.

In late February, the mischief-making Sunday Telegraph in London claimed that Osama bin Laden has been found and is surrounded by U.S. Special Forces right up there where Arnaud pinpointed him over a year ago.

Osama is said by the Telegraph to be penned in with about 50 of his fanatical bodyguards. This is not the kind of neighborhood where a Pakistani police patrol can knock on a front door and say, “We have a search warrant which includes your basement and attic.” Fierce snow storms howl down from the mountain peaks. Donkeys are the only transport.

Meanwhile, the U. S. military is sounding almost carelessly confident. “We know we’re going to get him and we’re closing in and it’s only a matter of time.” One U. S. military spokesman came flat out and said we’d have Osama BY THE END OF THE YEAR!

That kind of cockiness sets you up for a global-size dunce cap if you don’t deliver. Would the American military bet the farm on an “only a matter of time” position so soon after taking a similar position on weapons of mass destruction – and not yet delivering?

Reckless and unrequited confidence is not usually followed by still more reckless and unrequited confidence. And that suggests that maybe their confidence about Osama’s capture is not so reckless.

Does somebody know something we don’t?

Mix it all together. Arnaud’s report over a year ago that he knew where bin Laden was. The Iranian report that America already HAD bin Laden and was waiting for the most politically advantageous moment to reveal it. Then the Pakistani denials. Then the London Telegraph’s report that bin Laden was surrounded and ripe for the plucking in that precise area pinpointed by Arnaud de Borchgrave. And finally a spokesman for the U.S. military stepping all the way forward and proclaiming, “We’ll have him by the end of the year.”

The election is near the end of the year. Would the Bush team invite such a dangerous riptide of ridicule if election time comes and still no bin Laden?

Do I believe we have bin Laden in a cubicle under Fort Knox with hair and beard shampooed and ready for prime time?

No.

What I MIGHT believe, however, is something like this.

Thanks to the horrendous nuclear Wal-Mart embarrassment Pakistan suffered at the hands of Dr. Qadeer Khan, those northern territories that were heretofore off limits to even Pakistani scrutiny are now wide open to American penetration, with genuine Pakistani help.

And with a little help from heretofore unforthcoming friends, we have – or we BELIEVE we have – Osama bin Laden in the hands of those who’ve agreed to hold him for us and turn him over at a time of our choosing.

President Clinton once quibbled over the definition of “is.” May I now quibble over the definition of “us”?

I find it thoroughly believable at this point that “friends of ours” have Osama bin Laden under arrest in or near the northern Pakistani town of Quetta.

And, to make it nice and clean, we’re going to leave it that way for a while.

Why?

Fundamental Islamists wouldn’t understand. It’s an election thing.

When “we” decide to send in Special Forces to make The Grab it will be, obviously, closer to the 2004 election than right this minute. And therefore more advantageous to Bush’s re-election campaign.

As Oliver North said about Iranian payments for the Israeli-supplied weapons to the anti-communist Contra forces in Nicaragua: “Neat!”

And it’ll look so clean. WE didn’t hold Osama all those extra months. His PAKISTANI FRIENDS did!

We Americans “caught” him “as soon as we could.” And we let it be known as soon as we caught him. And what does the world make of bagging bin Laden so close to election time? Yes. Nice coincidence for Bush!

And if it’s done well, most Americans will rule President Bush safe on first, second, third and home.

But wait a minute. Didn’t Pakistan deny those Iranian reports that Osama had been captured way back in late February 2004?

Sure. So what?

The first thing they teach you in journalism school is NOT “man-bites-dog is what’s news.” That was a long time ago.

The first lesson today is “Never believe ANYTHING until it’s officially denied!”

Editor's note:
Gerald Posner reveals how Bill Clinton could have prevented 9/11 – click here for details

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