Such a massive operation two and a half years after 9/11 demonstrates that the U.S. and our allied intelligence agencies still have not penetrated the terror networks to prevent future attacks.

The idea that the terrorist groups are a ragtag bunch of anarchists is nonsense. They are clever and well organized. They pick and choose their targets.

The bombings not only influenced Spanish elections but also turned a U.S. ally against us and sent serious ripples across Europe. The terror operation achieved this not by happenstance, but through a level of thinking and sophistication that should be alarming.

A terror attack just a week earlier might have caused the bombings to backfire against the terrorists. And had the bombings been too close to the Spanish election – say, two days before – they also might have helped the governing party.

As with 9/11, the attack took place on a Tuesday. The terrorists are well aware of the news cycle and that they get more press with spectacular attacks early in the week. This is why Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are always “red” days in New York and Washington.

Americans have been lulled into a false sense of security. Many Americans actually believe that we have prevented al-Qaeda from attacking us on U.S. soil.

The FBI and other agencies may have foiled some plots, but if al-Qaeda really wanted to launch attacks, even on a small scale, it could have done so a long time ago.

Think about the terror wreaked by snipers Muhammad and Malvo. Or what a single suicide bomber could do here, as they regularly do in Israel.

These acts have not happened yet in the U.S. only because al-Qaeda and its backers think it unwise.

The terrorists watch the U.S. polls. They realize this election is shaping up to be very tight.

They know that a Democrat in the White House is far better than another term of George Bush. They want Kerry to win. They are emboldened after their huge victory in Spain.

But they also know America is not Spain. A terrorist act too big or too close to the election would most certainly backfire against them and help re-elect President Bush.

Americans in immediate crisis have always supported their president.

But if the terrorists strike from now until Labor Day – well before election season officially begins – they may well help the Democrats.

Here’s why:

President Bush and his administration have consistently stated that America is safer because of his war on terror, including America’s invasion and occupation of Iraq.

The Democrats, increasingly, have stated that America is not safe, that Bush has ignored homeland defense, and that the war in Iraq was either a diversion or an outright mistake.

Consider what happens if the terrorists launch a spectacular attack or attacks here in the U.S. in the next few months.

I can almost write the Kerry playbook.

At first Kerry and the Democrats will “rally ’round the flag” and there will be no criticism of the president.

But that will last only a short while, and many of Kerry’s surrogates will soon – within a week of the attack – be out of the box saying, “We told you so ... Iraq was a mistake ... Bush’s policies failed ... We are not safe,” etc.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Republican John McCain, who strongly supported the war against Iraq, ccomes out swinging against Bush, arguing that the war should not have precluded more emphasis on homeland defense.

No doubt the Democrats’ constant theme for months will be “Bush failed, America is not safer.”

The good news is that if there are terror attacks this year, they likely will not employ weapons of mass destruction, such as a dirty nuke going off in New York or Washington.

An attack too horrific will help Bush and prove Bush’s point that WMD pose an enormous threat.

Even if we did not find WMD in Iraq, the American people will realize that his worry was justified and his policies are working as we hold countries like Libya, North Korea and Iran accountable.

If George Bush is re-elected, the gloves will be off.

He is feared by more powerful enemies than al-Qaeda. Countries such as North Korea and Iran have been playing a delay game, waiting until after the 2004 election.

These rogue states know they made tremendous gains during the previous Democratic administration and they can expect the same if Kerry wins.

So, if Bush wins, we could see two scenarios: Rogue states might become desperate, and attacks against the U.S. will be vociferous and concerted; or we may see these states capitulate the way Libya has.

If John Kerry is inaugurated, he has already promised to move this war from the Pentagon to the Justice Department. All the bad guys will breathe a huge sigh of relief, and they will have years to regroup and grow in power.

Since the terror axis wants Kerry, there probably would not be any serious attacks on U.S. soil for some time after his inauguration. But this will be the quiet before the storm, and the next set of attacks in the years to come will make 9/11 look like a July Fourth fireworks display.

Final Thoughts

Of course, much of what I suggest is based on conjecture.

However, if you believe, as I do, that the terrorists are not crazy but are rational actors and that rogue states play a greater role in their activities than we are told, then things may unfold as I suggest.

Editor's note: