John LeBoutillier
Monday, Feb. 9, 2004

Issues – also crucial to a campaign – are not the subject here; skills as a presidential candidate are. It is now clear that John Kerry will be this year's Democratoc Party presidential nominee. So, let us examine a Bush-Kerry race.

Baseball's greatest talent evaluator was St. Louis Cardinal and Brooklyn Dodger general manager Branch Rickey. He taught his scouts to grade aspiring players on five baseball skills: 1) hit; 2) hit with power; 3) run; 4) field; 5) throw. Any player who combined these skills was a sure-fire major leaguer. To this day, baseball people salivate when they find a "five-tool" player.

Similarly, in elective politics, there are five attributes that, when combined, almost guarantee that a candidate will rise to the political "major leagues" known as the presidency:

1) Fire in the belly. This overriding hunger borders on the obsessive. Virtually all successful political candidates, no matter how well they disguise it, would "walk over their mothers" to win, as Nixon White House aide Charles Colson once put it.

2) Self-discipline. The ability to rein in one's own worst instincts, habits and weaknesses. Both President Clinton and Speaker Newt Gingrich ruined their legacies through a lack of personal self-discipline. The speaker couldn't keep his mouth shut; the president couldn't keep his fly shut.

3) Authoritative presence. Especially in the television era, candidates must project an air of gravitas and weight. Dan Quayle's "deer in the headlights" look undercut anything he said or did.

4) Raising money. All successful candidates find a way to raise enough money to win. Some, like JFK, merely ask their fathers to pay. Others spend years developing a network of donors; others cultivate special interests. However they do it, winning candidates always come up with "the mother's milk of politics."

5) Communicating a positive vision. Derided by President George H.W. Bush as "that vision thing," it is this singular ability that elevated presidents Kennedy, Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt into the political Hall of Fame. The skill to speak in a way that inspires voters is invaluable – and very rare. (No wonder so many campaigns today resort to "negative campaigning"; their candidates are incapable of painting with voice and words a believable picture of a better future.)

With these Five Tools in mind, let us examine the now-certain November match-up of President George W. Bush versus Sen. John F. Kerry.

1) Fire in the belly: This is not an issue with either man. G.W. Bush has already proven that he has that fire – especially during the 2000 Florida recount. And Kerry has been dying to run for president since he came home from Vietnam 35 years ago.

G.W. Bush is haunted by his father's defeat for re-election in 1992. Nothing motivates him more than restoring the Bush family name by being re-elected. (Oddly, in 1992 then-President George H.W. Bush did not have the fire in the belly for his own re-election. He seemed strangely passive and laconic. Many in his family believe he was sick that year with the thyroid condition Graves' Disease.)

Yesterday's "Meet the Press" appearance clearly showed that Mr. Bush is hungry and will fight like hell to win this year's election.

2) Self-discipline: This was already the undoing this year of former front-runner Howard Dean. His inability to keep his often-volatile temper in check culminated in the career-defining Iowa "Scream."

This is a key quality for a good candidate. G.W. Bush showed in 2000 that he could keep his temper in check and stay "on message" so as not to 'step on his spin of the day.' In an era of 'media cycles,' it is vital that the candidate stick to his script. Bush did it well in 2000 – and so far this year, Kerry is doing it well too.

In yet another example of this self-discipline, President Bush carefully stuck to his script on "Meet the Press." He did not allow himself to fall into any traps set by Tim Russert.

3) Authoritative presence: This is one of Kerry's strengths. He looks presidential to many observers. He is tall, thin and overly serious. Thus, to some, he commands respect and appears authoritative. Howard Dean failed miserably on this test.

President Bush is, after all, the president of the United States, so it is hard to question his presence. But often opponents have a problem measuring up to a president – especially when they appear side-by-side at the presidential debates. Kerry will dwarf the president by at least 5 inches. And Kerry's sonorous speaking style connotes a level of seriousness that many want in the Oval Office.

4) Raising money: No one has ever – EVER – raised as much money as the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign. Kerry's key to fund-raising? He married it!

5) Communicating a positive vision: This is the gold standard that makes candidates into leaders. G.W. Bush on occasion has risen to a level where he inspired people. His post-9/11 performance was excellent. But lately he has fallen flat.

His State of the Union address was a flop, and his initiatives – especially on immigration and Mars – were greeted with yawns and cynicism. He seems devoid of positive vision – other than the notion of going back to the moon. More is required than merely saying "I have a vision," which is what the president said several times on "Meet the Press."

Kerry, too, is relying on negative feelings toward Bush. What positive or uplifting thought or vision has anyone ever heard come out of Kerry's mouth?

The key to this race may be which one of these two men can rise about their boring, plodding speaking styles and find a chord that connects them with people. Reagan and JFK could do it.

Can either of these two do it?

Next: Kerry's Veep Short List

John LeBoutillier, a former U.S. congressman, is an author and columnist. E-mail John Leboutillier.

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