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U.N. Predicts Declines in Population Growth Rates
NewsMax Wires
Friday, Nov. 12, 2004
The U.N. Population Division has just released its occasional crystal
ball predictions about global population growth. This report attempts to
project fertility rates and global population well into the future. The
report itself admits their work is mostly "guesses." After all, in this
report they look three hundred years into the future. What is unique about
this report is that it is the first U.N. report to look so far into the
future and it predicts that over the next three hundred years world
population will experience substantial aging and eventual decline.
As a measure of its inexactitude, "World Population to 2300," is also
the most recent in a series of these U.N. reports to reduce previous
previous predictions. Their 1996 report expected between 7.6 billion and
11.1 billion people by 2050, while the next report in 1998 lowered this
projection to between 7.3 billion and 10.7 billion. Likewise, the 2002
report revised the 2000 report downward from 9.3 billion to 8.9 billion.
The new report continues the 2002 projection beyond the year 2050, and
says that "world population growth beyond 2050, at least for the following
250 years, is expected to be minimal." The report's "medium scenario"
predicts a decline to 8.4 billion by 2200 after a peak of 9.2 billion in
2075.
Global population is expected to decline because many countries will
sustain a long-term growth rate below the so-called replacement level
fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, which a country needs to
maintain its population. The report predicts that developed countries will
continue below replacement fertility for about 100 years and then rise
again to replacement levels, though there is no real evidence for this
prediction. The report expects that Europe, where "fertility falls to its
lowest point" in the world, will shrink from its current 728 million to
538 million by 2100. By 2045-2050, "139 countries will have total
fertility under 2.0."
One of the most alarming predictions in the report is that the world
population will experience a massive aging. Decreased fertility will
shrivel the proportion of children in the world population from 30% to 16%
by 2100. This, together with increased life expectancy, will cause the
median age to rise from 26 years in 2000 to 50 years in 2300, and the
proportion of those aged 65 or over will rocket from 7% in 2000 to 32% in
2300.
The report also projects a great increase in population of the very old
(those aged 80 or older). Even by 2100 their population should rise to
eleven times the number in 2000, and by 2300 they will be 17% of the
population, contrasted with the current 1%.
The aging of the population will mean that on average, there will be
more than one 'dependent' per person of working age, and the report
suggests that countries will need to adapt their institutions and
economies. One possible change is that the retirement age may need to be
increased far beyond where most nations place it.
Copyright 2004 - C-FAM (Catholic Family & Human Rights Institute).
Permission granted for unlimited use. Credit required.
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