High Turnout Means Kerry Victory

High Turnout Means Kerry Victory

John LeBoutillier
Monday, Nov. 1, 2004

Beginning last spring I wrote of the theory of the Passion Differential - the difference between the anti-Bush forces and the pro-Bush forces.

I added that the Democratic nominee was basically irrelevant to this race; that the anti-Bushies were creating a wave of support and all the Democratic nominee had to do was to climb aboard an imaginary surfboard and “ride that wave” to victory.

Well, we are now a day before the biggest election since the epic 1980 battle between the failed presidency of Jimmy Carter and the electoral tidal wave ushered in by his challenger, Ronald Reagan.

What is going to happen tomorrow?

A tsunami of new voters, young voters, recently registered-by-the-Democrat Party-and-George Soros voters, minority voters and unhappy-with-the direction-of-the-country voters is going to swell the voting lines all day tomorrow.

We are going to have an unprecedented turnout - the largest ever - and that is not good news for the GOP and President Bush.

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The higher the turnout - and some estimate upward of 120 million voters - the better it is for Kerry because those new voters are coming to vote against President Bush.

How do we know this?

Early Voting numbers are at an all-time high. In Florida people are willing to wait 3 1/2 hours to vote on a Sunday!

Absentee ballot applications are at an all-time high.

There is unprecedented interest and passion across the board for this election. All polls ask that question - and over 70% of voters this year claim to be paying “a lot of attention” to the race.

Viewership for all 3 debates was substantially higher than for the 3 debates 4 years ago.

The Democrats, ACT and their labor pals have a better get-out-the-vote operation than Bush and the GOP do.

Polling of those who have already voted in Florida is decidedly anti-Bush; the same in Iowa where Kerry is leading 56-39 among those who have already voted.

Yes, early voting polls could be an aberration; but that is doubtful.

Plus the best pollster - John Zogby, who was the only correct pollster 4 years ago - now shows a Kerry surge in the Battleground states (except Ohio). Zogby predicts a Kerry victory tomorrow.

What indications to look for tomorrow?

Cable TV will have cameras positioned in key precincts around the country. If we see lines literally around the block, we will know that indeed the huge turnout is underway. And if it is, the race may not even be that close.

Exit polling will be done by the 5 TV networks - and the results will seep out by late afternoon (they always do).

Prediction: the anti-Bushies will defeat the pro-Bushies tomorrow night by 3 points in the popular vote and will garner over 280 electoral votes.

John Kerry - sitting atop the surfboard on this anti-Bush wave - will be the President-Elect.