Iowa Poll: Kerry Surging
NewsMax.com
Monday, Nov. 1, 2004
With 27 percent of Iowa adults surveyed saying they had already voted, Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent -- among that group of early-bird voters -- reports the Des Moines Register.
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Things tighten up, however, in the "likely to vote" category: 48 percent of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot, support the Democratic candidate and 45 percent back the Republican incumbent.
The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
Meanwhile, six percent of likely voters remain undecided in the new Iowa Poll. Adding to the still volatile mix, there are the 5 percent of Bush supporters and the 4 percent of Kerry supporters who say they could still change their minds.
The Register furthermore reports that among likely voters, 47 percent disapprove of the president's overall job performance, and 45 percent approve.
In other results of the Iowa poll:
On Iraq, Bush leads Kerry 47 percent to 42 percent as the candidate who likely Iowa voters feel would have the best command of the situation.
Likely voters pick Kerry over Bush, 49 percent to 39 percent, as the candidate they trust to do a better job of increasing access to health care.
On the economy, the Democratic candidate outpolls the Republican incumbent, 48 percent to 43 percent.
Fifty-five percent say the country has gotten off on the wrong track; 39 percent say it's headed in the right direction.
More likely voters regard him as a strong leader and a likable person than they do the Massachusetts senator.
Just one percent of likely voters say they are casting their ballots for independent candidate Nader in Tuesday's election.
Bush and Kerry are running neck and neck among political independents, with each drawing the support of 45 percent among Iowans in this group of swing voters.
Kerry does a little better than Bush in holding down defections among members of their respective parties. Two percent of likely Democratic voters say they back Bush, while 6 percent of Republicans plan to vote for Kerry.
Bush outshines Kerry among likely male voters, 50 percent to 41 percent. Kerry does better among women, 54 percent to 41 percent.
Kerry is more appealing to senior citizens, drawing the support of 54 percent among those 65 or older. Bush does better among adults between the ages of 18 and 44, capturing the support of 54 percent in that age group. Those in the middle, ages 45 to 64, lean toward Kerry.
Bush runs stronger than Kerry in rural and metropolitan areas. Kerry does better than the president in smaller cities and towns.
Poorer and less educated Iowans tend to favor Kerry; the more affluent lean toward Bush.
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