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Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2004

"It's an enormous victory, a huge turnaround," Kerry told The Associated Press. "We were written off for months, and plugged on and showed people the determination we have to defeat President Bush."

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark were in a distant race for third as early returns trickled in from across the Granite State. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut was fifth, his candidacy in peril.

After trooping through coffee shops, country stores and living rooms of Iowa and New Hampshire, the candidates now move to the cold realities of a national campaign: airport rallies and multimillion-dollar ad buys in seven state holding contests next Tuesday.

With 87 percent of the precincts reporting, Kerry had 39 percent, Dean 26 percent, Clark 12 percent, Edwards 12 percent and Lieberman 9 percent.

Dean, former five-term governor of Vermont, hoped a solid finish would help him rebound from a disastrous third place in Iowa eight days ago.

"It looks like we are going to finish a solid second," Dean told supporters.

Edwards, who finished a surprise second in Iowa, predicted he would finish in the double digits, an improvement over his standing in polls before Iowa. He's staking his candidacy on South Carolina, a centerpiece of next week's contests. "Beyond South Carolina, I don't want to make any predictions," he said.

An AP analysis of the delegate count showed Kerry winning 14 delegates and Dean capturing eight, while Edwards and Clark appeared to finish below the 15 percent vote threshold needed to win any delegates.

His eye warily cast toward the fall, Bush planned a trip to New Hampshire to counter criticism heaped his way during the Democrat race. He used a similar tactic after Iowa's caucuses, scheduling his State of the Union address one day after that contest.

It has been a topsy-turvy race, with Dean leading New Hampshire polls by 25 percentage points when the year began, Kerry seizing a similar lead after Iowa and Dean gaining a bit of ground after an 11th-hour political overhaul.

In a race that has been hard on front-runners, Kerry said he was ready for the role.

"I've been in public life for a long time, and I have been in tough races before and have been scrutinized," he said. "I'm ready to lead our party to victory."

But the front-runner's mantle could prove as weighty as it was for Dean. Rivals were already sharpening their knives: Republicans calling him a Massachusetts liberal and Democrats accusing him of equivocating on the Iraq war and accomplishing little in the Senate.

About 200,000 voters participated in the Democrat primary, easily eclipsing the record 170,000 turnout in 1992 when Paul Tsongas defeated Bill Clinton, then governor of Arkansas. Voters in the primary were evenly split between Democrats and independents. A third of the independents backed Kerry, a fourth backed Dean, and the rest were split among Edwards, Clark and Lieberman.

Kerry More Electable Than Dean

Surveys of New Hampshire voters showed Kerry's support was broad-based with equally strong support among women and men, all age groups. His support was slightly higher among those whose financial situations have gotten worse in the last four years.

Kerry dominated among those who decided whom they would back in the last week, getting the support of half of those voters. By a 2-to-1 margin, voters said they backed Kerry because they think he can defeat President Bush.

"After tonight, this is a national campaign for delegates, and that's why we're going to be competing everywhere," said Mark Mellman, one of Kerry's pollster.

Dean ran strongly among liberals, war opponents, those angry at Bush, and those who thought the most important candidate quality was standing up for what they believe. He lagged behind Kerry among voters who most wanted a candidate who could beat Bush and a candidate who had the most experience.

The exit poll was conducted for The Associated Press by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International.

Less than a month ago, Dean had an edge in national polls and visions of cementing his front-runner status with a sweep of the initial contests. But a spate of missteps led to a third-place finish in Iowa, where a shrill election-night speech underscored concerns about his temperament and judgment.

Though he recovered ground lost in Iowa, Dean still fell short by double-digits, less than he needed for a complete rebound or to erase doubts about his viability. He did manage about twice as many votes as Edwards or Clark.

Kerry, often a plodding and inelegant campaigner, found his rhythm as Dean lost his. A decorated Vietnam War lieutenant, Kerry cast himself as the Democrat antidote to Bush's advantages on terrorism and foreign policy. He warned Democrats that Dean's tax and foreign policy would "just kill us" in the fall.

In the desperate hours after Iowa's caucuses, Dean tried to soften his image and retool his message by billing himself as a straight-shooting fiscal conservative and social liberal. He questioned Kerry's judgment for opposing the 1991 Persian Gulf War and supporting Bush's 2002 war resolution.

The pair bickered to the end.

"I vote my conscience. Unlike Howard Dean, I've fought in a war, and I know the responsibilities of commander in chief, of how you send young men and women off to war," Kerry said.

Dean shot back by accusing Kerry and the other senators seeking the presidency of paying too much attention to information the Bush administration provided about Saddam Hussein's potential to deploy weapons of mass destruction.

"The question is how come the senators fell for the misleading information," said Dean, who rose to prominence in the race as an opponent of the Iraq war. "I didn't."

Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Al Sharpton were not factors.

A total of 269 pledged delegates are at stake Feb. 3 in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota and South Carolina. That is more than 12 percent of the 2,162 needed for the nomination, and far more than the 67 delegates claimed in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Michigan and Washington hold contests four days later, followed by Maine on Feb. 8, Virginia and Tennessee on Feb. 10, Wisconsin a week later, and a huge 10-state showdown March 2.

New Hampshire has a history of surprises.

Democrat Gary Hart came from behind to beat front-runner Walter Mondale in 1984. Four years later, Republican Bob Dole watched his lead disappear over the weekend as George H.W. Bush surged to victory.

The tables were turned on Bush when he sought re-election in 1992 and conservative Pat Buchanan scored a closer-than-expected second place. On the Democrat side, Bill Clinton survived allegations of an extramarital affair to finish second and proclaim himself the "Comeback Kid."

In 2000, George W. Bush held a narrow lead in polls over Sen. John McCain of Arizona, but the surveys had it wrong again: McCain beat Bush by 18 percentage points.

McCain returned to the site of his greatest political triumph Monday, campaigning for Bush at the behest of Vice President Dick Cheney. White House political advisers were worried that Democrat criticism of Bush would take its toll in New Hampshire, a swing state in the fall.

© 2003 Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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