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Iowa’s Mickelson: Dean Will Win By a Hair
Brandon Benson and Jon E. Dougherty, NewsMax.com
Saturday, Jan. 17, 2004
Few know Iowa like its leading conservative talk show host, Jan Mickelson.

As the Iowa Caucus vote nears, NewsMax.com sat down with the broadcaster whose popular morning show broadcasts on News Radio 1040, WHO, out of Des Moines.

WHO and its 50,000-watt blowtorch signal gives it a powerful voice across Iowa.

Ronald Reagan began his broadcasting career here, re-creating Chicago Cubs games for his listeners during the great depression years.

Mickelson, who has been with the AM Clear Channel giant since 1989, is an observer now to his fourth presidential race and has a bird’s eye seat for the quadrennial Iowa contest.

Dean is doing well in the state, Mickelson argues, because of the state’s “angry Left.” The radio host predicts the winner: “Dean by a hair.”

He says Democrats in Iowa are a "minority of the minority" – there are 577,461 registered Dems, compared with 622,540 registered Republicans and 783,285 registered Independents.

Despite having an edge on registration rolls, Republicans often lose in Iowa because the GOP offers up "poor candidates."

"Howard Dean is right that the activists are the ones who show up at the caucuses ... and the activists are the ones who are the least happy about stuff," Mickelson said. "Happy people don't change history and that's certainly the case here. Howard Dean is the angry man who appeals to the angry left."

Another factor is the high number of people dependent on government assistance.

"You’ve got farmers that are on welfare. You’ve got a huge senior population on welfare. And you’ve got a huge amount of government employees on welfare," said Mickelson. "And the party that appeals to the recipients of OPM [other people's money] are ... I hate to be so blunt about it, but the DNC should be renamed 'OPM' ..."

Dean, Gephardt Fear Him

Mickelson says so far the only Democratic candidates who have appeared on his show are Sen. John Kerry of Mass., Sen. John Edwards of N.C., and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Conn.

"Those are the only ones who will come on the program. The rest of them have been warned to stay away," he said.

He says Dean's campaign is being run by "Harkinistas," a reference to Democratic Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, a four-term liberal lawmaker who narrowly defeated Republican Greg Ganske in the last election.

"Harkin refuses to come on with me and he has advised Dean not to. It’s probably smart on their part not to. It might be good politics," says Mickelson.

"That’s just another example of those guys appealing to special interest. They’re not really interested in reaching average, mainstream Iowans; only to activate their base, and in the case of Howard Dean that’s the Harkinistas - the alleged progressives, the secular left."

Asked which of the Democrats he'd like to see win the nomination, Mickelson jokes, "Al Sharpton."

"Actually I don’t have a horse in this race. I didn’t vote for Bush either. I’m a small 'D' ... disenfranchised," he said.

The veteran talk host noted the Des Moines Register's endorsement of Sen. Edwards was an immediate boost to the North Carolinian's efforts in the state, crediting the paper with saving the candidate's bacon.

The endorsement resulted in an "instant spike of support for Edwards after they endorsed him," said Mickelson. "He had a last minute spurt of energy after the Register invited people to reconsider. He was fading fast and the Register revived his candidacy."

He went on to say the paper's endorsement is one of a candidate's best friends when campaigning in the state.

"The labor endorsements of Gephardt [are] the only thing that has him in the race," said Mickelson. "If he won in Iowa or came in strong in second, Gephardt wouldn’t be able to translate that anywhere else in the country. If he wins, and it’s a possibility, but if he wins that will be the only place he does."

Mickelson said the Dean campaign has been able to tap into the state's hardcore Leftist Democrats, which has resulted in enthusiastic activism and support.

Dean "activates his activists," he said. "There’s about a third of the Democratic Party that are hardcore socialists, progressive, secular that hate George Bush with humongous passion. They hate the war and the social agenda that he represents, . . . They consider George Bush an illegitimate President and they hate him.”

Mickelson says Dean has also managed to tap into the state's human campaign resources – new and existing – in order to surge ahead in the polls.

"They do extremely well with the younger generation that is computer literate," he continued. "A Web site design guy helped get Howard Dean’s site up and attracted all that money by appealing to that core constituency of that heavy duty leftist progressives, the pro-abortion lobby, the pro-gay lobby, the peace lobby and he’s been able to successfully capture that coalition."

Mickelson said other candidates likely didn't have much hope of winning Iowa.

Of Dennis Kucinich, he made a prediction: "He’s coming on strong. Yeah, he can move from a half a percent all the way up to a percent."

"The Communist Party of America on their Web site a few weeks ago said that they were not going to field a candidate this year because they were adequately represented by Kucinich," Mickelson said.

Hillary the Superstar

The talk host said he believes the "superstar" of the party at the present time is a Democrat who says she isn't running – Sen. Hillary Clinton, of New York.

"Among the Democratic Party she’s the superstar. She’s the gorilla in the jungle," he said.

But, added Mickelson, while "she’s a huge fundraiser," a recent poll "showed that she would get beat by [former New York City Mayor Rudy] Giuliani ... if they ran head to head."

"But her book was a bestseller. She is the 'Yoda' of the Democratic Party," he said, discounting statements by Clinton indicating she isn't running for president this year.

"She is running. She’s always running. She’s a politician. It’s just which office and when? Politicians ... if they’re not running, they’re dying. There’s just no way around it. You have to be continually in campaign mode nowadays," Mickelson said.

Bush Vulnerable

Regarding President Bush's chances in Iowa – a state he narrowly lost in 2000 – Mickelson believes a few variables may again make the race close in 2004.

"Bush at the present takes two steps forward and one step back. He has really blown it on the immigration issue. On the economic issue he is not making nearly as much noise as he should," the talk host said.

So I’d say he’s very vulnerable. I think he could be another one-term Bush. His dad had a better approval rating at one point after the war at 73 percent and he lost. He lost to a third-rate politician from Arkansas."

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