U.N. Forecasts World Economic Growth
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Thursday, Jan. 15, 2004
UNITED NATIONS - After three years of slow growth, the global economy will surge by 3 1/2 percent this year with the United States and China leading the way, the United Nations predicted Wednesday.
But the U.N. economists warned that the generation of new jobs and imbalances in the global economy pose threats. The report urged the major powers to focus on the problem of unemployment rather than cutting inflation.
After global economic growth of less than 2 percent in 2001 and 2002, and setbacks early last year caused by the prospects of war in Iraq and the SARS outbreak, "economic growth in an increasing number of countries shifted to a measurably higher gear in the second half of the year," the report said.
It said the global economy grew by 2 1/2 percent in 2003, a rate that would increase to 3 1/2 percent this year.
"The United States remains the locomotive of growth in the developed economics," the U.N. economists said, citing strong consumer spending. They said improving corporate profits and higher stock market prices "have laid foundations for further growth of business investment and for an improvement of employment into 2004."
China's rapid rise as a major importer as well as an export powerhouse have increased its "weight" in the world economy and its role in the current recovery, the report said.
After a decade of stagnation, the Japanese economy has improved, led by business investment and an acceleration in exports to other Asian economies, the U.N. economists said.
Many analysts have concluded "this is the first time the Japanese recovery is based on China - so that China is actually becoming the locomotive of Japan in a very significant change with respect to the past," Undersecretary-General for Economic Affairs Jose Antonio Ocampo told a news conference launching the report.
The report said average economic growth in south and east Asia should increase to 6 1/4 percent this year and 4 percent in the western part of the continent.
European growth remains subdued, but signs of a modest upturn are emerging and 2 percent growth is forecast. Latin America is expected to achieve growth of 3 1/2 percent, and Africa's growth may top 4 percent. Russia will continue to be the economic engine for growth in the former Soviet empire will should increase by more than 4 percent, the report said.
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