Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2003

For the past month, the author has been engaged in translating military books recently published in Beijing and articles from People’s Liberation Army (PLA) magazines. This is an explanation for my "silence."

The author initially intended to compose the second part of the article describing the Chinese "crawling" – or, more accurately, "leaping" – invasion into the eastern regions of Russia. The author has a lot of material on this subject and considers it his duty to publish this article. However, another theme became more urgent during the past month.

Military ‘Gifts’ From Russia

The material in Chinese military books and journals witnesses the fact that China's military-technological potential is following the lead of this country's rapidly growing economic potential. In particular, the Iraqi war gave the PLA new incentives for accelerated modernization. The following are excerpts from some of this material (comments are in parentheses).

Xiandai Junshi (Modern Military) magazine, 2003, #6:

"Along with multiple achievements in the Iraqi war, American forces suffered some setbacks. Among the launched long-range cruise missiles, four units greatly missed targets inside Iraq, two units fell in Turkey, and several units fell in Saudi Arabia. "Now it is evident that electronic interference can influence the flight of these missiles. Particularly, Russian-made cheap interference devices, which spoil the positioning signals of American GPS systems, could be the major factor here. Research and development of interference devices spoiling the signals of GPS systems could become [for China] a trend in the development of weapons capable of opposing non-contact operational weapons.

"The recognition system of American precision-guided weapons is also imperfect. American and British military aircraft often made mistakes in differentiating between ‘our side’ and the enemy. Using ‘confusing fake and real’ methods against these recognition systems also attracted the attention of world military specialists [primarily Chinese]." (end of quote)

PLA experts understood: The Russian-made GPS spoiling device, which probably doesn't cost more than $1,000 per unit, could effectively take out of service Tomahawk cruise missiles costing more than $1 million. And have no doubts on this account: China will get them. Let's suppose, in the case of the Taiwan Strait crisis, that America sends to this zone two or three aircraft carriers equipped with hundreds of Tomahawk missiles. Suddenly most of these missiles, as well as precision-guided "smart" bombs used by U.S. bombers, appear to be ineffective. A newly built Chinese complex system of GPS interference drives these bombs and missiles away from important military and infrastructure targets. Russian assistance would allow China to accomplish this project rapidly and inexpensively.

One more quotation, from the messages sent by international agencies from Moscow on Aug. 4:

"Rosoboronexport, the state-owned company responsible for up to 88 percent of all weapons sales, was due to sell $3.8 billion worth of arms this year. But with $2.7 billion clocked up in the first six months, that figure is likely to be exceeded by a big margin. If exports continue at their current pace, Moscow may this year match or even beat its post-Soviet record of the $4.8 billion registered in 2002." (end of quotation)

Around half of this quantity goes to China. In the event of a Taiwan Strait crisis – if Taiwan doesn't surrender in advance, scared by the Mainland’s might – the PLA will have more than enough modern fighters, submarines, air defense missile systems, cruise missiles, etc. That's in addition to electronic interference systems.

Several days ago the Beijing media announced that the first Chinese manned spacecraft will be launched in October. The project "921," initiated in January 1992, is close to successful completion; the share of Russian technology in this project is around 80 percent to 90 percent.

Doers this mean that China, in October 2003, will reach the level of the USSR in April 1961, when the Soviet Union’s first manned spacecraft was launched? No, China will have reached the world level of the second half of the 1990s. By the way, is there anything in the Soviet/Russian space technology inventory, both in its "civilian" and military parts, still unused by China? Not much.

In the modern high-tech war, the sharing of space technology is on a steep rise. PLA knows this and reacts correspondingly.

In January-August 2003, several Chinese-Russian high-tech parks, or S&T centers, have been established in Shenyang city in Liaoning province, Zhenjiang city in Jiangsu province, Harbin city in Heilongjiang province, etc. The total number of these parks in China apparently surpasses 10. The environment for the transfer of military and dual-use technology from Russia to China is becoming even more beneficial.

Military-technological and Political ‘Gifts’ From Russia

The Russian defense industry, however, has some new clients. Let's quote the PLA magazine once again. Xiandai Junshi (Modern Military), #7, 2003:

"The Iraq war has been militarily won but politically lost.

"America launched the war against U.N. decisions; this caused the malcontent of many U.N. members. This war, strictly opposed by NATO members France, Germany and Belgium, caused the split of NATO. The Iraqi war resulted in the growth of contradictions between America and Arab countries.

In addition to NATO splitting and European problems of American policy, after the Iraqi war the leaders of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, etc., visited Moscow and signed agreements with Russia for military and weapons cooperation. Indeed, after the Iraqi war, a dramatic acceleration in military competition took place in the world.

Many countries are afraid of America’s unilateral course. This could cause the reorganization of world political forces and result in the formation of a new multi-polar political structure. American victory in Iraq is turning into the "two-edged sword." (end of quotation)

First, let’s look at Southeast Asia. Even before the Iraqi war, China, basing on its rapidly rising economic potential, dramatically increased its economic influence and, consequently, political influence in this region. After the Iraqi war, this region established strong military-technological ties with Russia, which increases Moscow’s political influence in this zone.

Eventually, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam entered the sphere of Chinese-Russian alliance control. Yes, this alliance still exists, it is gaining force and, indeed, is becoming a real base for "reorganization of world political forces and … formation of a new multi-polar political structure."

The increased Chinese and Russian economic and political contacts with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Cuba and North Korea complete the picture.

The "great conference" in Beijing on Aug. 27-29, which was supposed to solve North Korea’s nuclear weapons problem, failed to solve any problems at all. A lot of Western politicians are disappointed. These nice guys, once again, didn't take into account the strong ties of Moscow, Beijing and Pyongyang, as well as their "joint tricks."

And Iran is close to producing its first nuclear device. Have no doubts, Moscow and Beijing will defend Tehran from any possible American action.

The Most Pleasant ‘Gifts’ From Russia

On Sept. 22, one of Moscow’s opposition papers published an article by Dr. Michail Delyagin, a recently resigned adviser to Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov. Dr. Delyagin is a very informed person, and some of his statements attract interest, particularly: "Russia, during the last several years, has been bathing in a ‘gold rain of oil dollars.’ However, none of Russia’s problems have been solved. ... Circumstances are for us. Americans are falling into one pool after another and help us this way. We are as lucky as only fools could be." (end of quote)

Definitely, America is "falling into one pool after another," and each time oil prices skyrocket. Russia effectively uses all the American mistakes; however, is Russia only "using" America’s mistakes – or also creating them? Is Moscow merely patiently waiting for America to fall into the pool or deliberately pushing America into it?

From September 2002 to March 2003, Russia did its best to delay the Iraqi war. And in March-April 2003, Moscow spared no effort to prevent Saddam’s defeat or at least to make the war last as long as possible. As a result, Moscow enjoyed one more "gold rain of oil dollars." In this case, Moscow definitely pushed America into the pool.

And what about 9/11? Are you sure, my readers, that Moscow had nothing to do with it? The author published many articles on this account, raised a lot of questions and didn't receive a a satisfactory answer for any of them.

Now President Bush intends to convince Russian President Putin to take part in Iraq’s "normalization and rebuilding." Let's suppose some Russian military units really do enter Iraq. How many FSB/KGB agents will they contain?

FSB/KGB had a lot of ties to Saddam’s circle. These ties could be activated and there will be one more pool for America to fall into. Moscow is not interested in Iraqi normalization, but only in high prices for oil.

I will be happy if this article helps America not to fall into that pool.

Finally, the author has begun distributing the book "Chinese-Russian Alliance," written jointly with his friend Dr. Thomas Torda, with the support of NewsMax.com. The table of contents is given below. Purchasing information is at the Web site http://excelenterprises1.tripod.com

Part I: Chronicle of the Alliance Revival

Chapter 1: Beijing and Moscow Reestablish a Strategic Relationship

Chapter 2: Central Asia, Ukraine, and Belarus Join the Alliance: Importance of the "Shanghai Five"

Chapter 3: China's Strategic Interest in Defense Technology and Oil & Gas from Siberia and the Russian Far East

Part II: Emergence of the New Russia and New China

Chapter 4: Russia: Great Degradation Under Yeltsin and Emergence of the Putin Regime

Chapter 5: China's Emerging Economic Power

Chapter 6: The Russian Army – Still a Threat to the West

Chapter 7: China Upgrades Its Military Potential with Russian Aid

Chapter 8: Why China Demands Taiwan, and Russia's Interest in the Issue

Part III: The Future of the Russian-Chinese Alliance – What the U.S. Can Do

Chapter 9: War Warnings – Statements of Chinese Leaders on Forthcoming Conflict

Chapter 10: How the U.S. Can Defuse the Increasingly Threatening Russian-Chinese Alliance

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics" and the newly published "Russian-Chinese Alliance." Visit Dr. Nemets' Web site at http://excelenterprises1.tripod.com.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
China/Taiwan
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Editor's note:
News flash: China and Russia are engaging in a massive military buildup – find out about this in "Bitter Legacy": Click here now