Christopher Ruddy
Thursday, Aug. 28, 2003

He thinks his enemies are the “right wing” and hard-core Republicans, but it is his Democrat brethren who will deliver to him the coup de grace on recall day – to help elect an even more radical Democrat, Cruz Bustamante.

The “vast left-wing conspiracy” is at work, and Davis may be the only one who doesn’t see them coming.

On Tuesday, California’s AFL-CIO, the state’s most influential unions representing 2.1 million members, voted, as expected, to back Davis’ campaign for a “no” vote on the recall.

But the union came out and squarely endorsed Lt. Gov. Bustamante for the ballot’s second question, which asks who should replace Davis if the recall vote passes.

The union had previously opposed any senior Democrat taking part in the ballot’s second question.

Bustamante put his name into the contest, despite the objections of Davis.

Bustamante has claimed, with a straight face, that he supports a “no” to the recall. He says he placed his name into contention only as insurance, just in case the recall passes.

His thinking sounds reasonable. But he may have also outfoxed the state’s most notorious fox, Gray Davis.

After spending a week here, it has become clear to me that the Democrats, who were at first furious with the recall election, may end up in the catbird seat after all.

With a recall vote all but certain to pass, only one serious Democrat is running against a field of 134 others, including three well-known or well-funded Republicans.

This election may serve as a paradigm for the “divide and conquer” strategy. There is no question that the Democrats can muster about 35 percent of the vote – between unions, minorities, state employees and the like. A Republican in this splintered field, even Arnold Schwarzenegger, will be hard pressed to beat that base number.

So this is why the Democrats are laughing. They will replace a liberal Democrat with one even more liberal.

Vote for Me: I'll Tax You Even More!

Bustamante even began his campaign by promising more than $8 billion in news taxes to pay for the state’s multibillion-dollar deficit. This means no cuts in social programs, no state employees laid off, no cuts in welfare.

Usually politicians don’t begin campaigns calling for tax increases. But Bustamante is a clever cat. He knows that by making such promises he locks in the Democrat base vote, which depends on government largesse.

By making such pledges, Bustamante goes beyond even Davis’ pandering.

Here is the irony that Davis must face: The voters who will help to pass the recall will be liberal Democrats.

Let me explain:

Right now, support for the recall has been waning. After Davis’ “blame the right wing” speech last week, opposition to the recall has grown. The Los Angeles Times' latest poll shows just 50 percent favor the recall, 45 percent opposed and 5 percent undecided.

But Davis will be hard pressed to get 51 percent who oppose the recall. He couldn’t even manage to get 51 percent in his recent re-election (he pulled 48 percent).

Add to that the Bustamante’s stealth strategy.

Davis has turned off so many Democrats for one reason or another that some would like to see him go.

If Bustamante’s poll numbers remain strong, you can expect that many hard-core leftist Democrats will vote for the recall and for Bustamante.

Bustamante, who could become the state’s first Mexican-American governor in the modern era, will no doubt motivate a large number of the state’s Hispanic population to vote in this special election.

Hispanics compose almost one-third of the state’s population, more than 10 million people. They are heavily Democrat. Political experts here in California tell me they have no doubt that many of these potential Davis voters will eventually “defect” and vote for the recall in hopes of electing Bustamante, one of their own.

Meanwhile, Davis’ strategy from the beginning has been disastrous.

He ignored the recall effort and dismissed it. He then refused to select a potential successor, in an attempt to have the state’s Democrat party go of the cliff with him. Bustamante filled the vacuum.

Rather than admit to mistakes, Davis has focused on blaming the “right wing.” This has given him a momentary blip in the polls, but it won’t carry him.

Had Davis been smart he would have appealed to all voters – Republicans, Democrats and independents - as to the fairness of the recall.

An election had taken less than a year ago, and he won. He is not guilty of malfeasance or corruption, and any less of a standard would fly in the face of the idea of fair play cherished by most Americans, so he could argue.

A smart Davis would have also selected his successor for the second ballot question and picked a person who would not have motivated voters to vote for the recall, as the Mexican-American Bustamante most certainly will.

Instead of thinking straight, Davis has been talking to the Clintons and using the same strategy they employed during Monicagate and impeachment, Hillary’s “vast right-wing conspiracy” one.

Davis has even woven his own intricate conspiracy theory to explain the California recall – linking it such disparate items as Florida's 2000 election crisis and Texas' reapportionment controversy.

But Davis' problems are much different than Bill Clinton's, and this is why his conspiracy strategy won’t work.

For starters, Davis is a different person than Clinton, and he is faced with a much different situation.

Clinton was president with a high approval rating leading a nation whose economy was brimming - with global peace.

Even after Monica and impeachment, the public had little interest in rocking the boat. The Clintons never had to talk of a “right-wing conspiracy.” They still would have kept power. Sadly, such were the times.

The same is not true for Davis. He is not as affable as Clinton, and his ratings are at all-time low. Unlike Clinton, Davis leads a state in crisis.

Worse still, his potential successor, Cruz Bustamante, is a liberal Democrat who projects a positive, likable image and who will have many supporters on the far left secretly rooting for him.

The lessons here are several. One, be honest and admit your mistakes. Two, appeal to fair play. Three, avoid the Clintons’ advice. Four, never, ever trust your lieutenant!

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:

California Governors Race

DNC

Editor's note:
Arnold fans – check out the new Terminator for Governor T-shirts – Click Here