John LeBoutillier
Thursday, June 26, 2003

A re-elect number is the number in a poll of respondents who say they would definitely vote to re-elect an incumbent – regardless of the opponent.

The accepted rule in politics is any incumbent with a re-elect number under 50 percent is in trouble.

G.W. Bush's 42 percent re-elect is exactly the same as his father's in June 1991. And, of course, his father went on to suffer a humiliating defeat with only 37 percent of the vote in a three-way race against Democrat Bill Clinton and third-party candidate Ross Perot.

The Bush White House feels – despite the worrisome 42 percent number – that things are lining up nicely for re-election in November 2004. Here is their view:

1) Saddam has been vanquished. Bush won the war.

2) The War on Terror will be the backdrop of the 2004 election and Bush is strong in the national security area.

3) The economy is rallying, albeit slowly.

4) The GOP has moved positively on a prescription drug benefit as a part of Medicare.

5) The Democratic field is weak. The White House salivates at the thought of running against many of the present field of Democratic presidential candidates.

The White House feels that they have co-opted the Democrats' best issues and control the agenda for 2004.

If that is so, others ask, then why the 42 percent? Why not 52 percent?

Good questions!

Here are some potential trouble spots ahead for the Bush White House:

1) The economy does not rebound. Instead, the so-called 'jobless recession' becomes the dominant campaign issue. (Recently NBC News showed the states Bush narrowly won in 2000 that have suffered job losses since then. This could be a major campaign issue in 2004.) Remember that it is the perception of the economy that counts.

2) Another major terrorist attack occurs here inside the United States. Such an attack – and it is awful to think of such events as political fodder – could be used to undercut the main Bush issue: his handling of national security.

3) Iraq spirals out of control and a fundamentalist Shiite Islamic revolution seizes control over the southern half of Iraq – precisely where most of the oil is. Under this scenario, Bush's war against Saddam – without major allies in the Arab world – will be seen as a tragic error.

4) Some unexpected event – always a possibility – totally shakes up the 2004 race. 9/11 helped Bush; another event may enhance his stature – or undo it.

5) The nation is split 50-50 these days. Thus any one of the above could tip things either way.

President Reagan also had a weak re-elect number 18 months before his huge 1984 landslide. Then, as now, we were coming out of a recession. BY the summer of 1984 it was Morning in America; the economy was humming along and Mondale wanted to raise taxes. Reagan won a huge election victory.

G.W. Bush is poised to repeat that outcome, despite lingering fears that, instead, he might repeat his father's.

John LeBoutillier, a former U.S. congressman, is an author and columnist. E-mail him at lebout@newsmax.com.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
2004 Elections
George W. Bush

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