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Friday, April 11, 2003

Among the leaders of France, Germany and Russia, the position of French President Jacques Chirac may be the most delicate, as he faces the brunt of U.S. criticism for defying Washington and growing post-war doubts even within his own party.

The three countries are eager to profit from the war they opposed. And the Bush administration wants to let them. It has opposed a move in Congress to exclude Germany, France, Russia and the terrorist nation of Syria from reconstruction contracts.

Tellingly, as Moscow and Washington seek to patch up their differences, aided by the good relationship between presidents Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush, Chirac and Bush have not spoken since February, according to French news reports.

Analysts such as Philippe Moreau Defarges wonder if the appeasement coalition will find enough common ground in times of peace.

'Artificial Coalition'

"It will be a very difficult meeting," predicted Defarges, a multilateral expert at French Institute of International Relations, in Paris. "This coalition between Paris, Berlin and Moscow was really an artificial coalition.

"It's clear Russia and Mr. Putin will want to play its own game and reconcile with the United States, particularly because of Iraq and the oil contracts," he said. "The German chancellor is not a very strong man, and he will also try to reconcile with Washington at the end of the day. So the French position is a very difficult one."

But faced with an avalanche of media snapshots of jubilant Iraqis, and the surprisingly swift success of coalition forces, the situations of Russian and German leaders aren't easy either.

In statements this week, all three leaders have claimed satisfaction in the dismantling of their business and military partner Saddam Hussein, even as they stood by their anti-war stances.

Putin Furious

Putin in particular was caught off guard by the coalition's rapid victory, according to a French radio report, and is furious at military advisers who counseled him otherwise.

Besides discussing an increasingly unlikely U.N. leadership in Iraq's post-war reconstruction, Chirac, Putin and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder may also tackle U.S. calls for European peacekeeping and other assistance for Iraq.

France and Russia, in particular, have been asked to forgive Baghdad's sizable debts.

Moscow's initial reaction to the debt write-off request has been cool, Russian news services reported. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov today said only that Moscow had not been formally requested to cancel Baghdad's bilateral debt, estimated at between $7 billion and $8 billion, the Itar Tass news agency reported.

"If U.S. officials have a certain logic, this logic should apply to all countries," a Russian diplomat said, according to Russia's Interfax news agency.

The Russian meeting comes as France was again singled out for U.S. criticism for its recalcitrant stance. On Thursday, Deputy Secretary for Defense Paul Wolfowitz suggested Paris was looking out for its own interests internationally, and had "created a big problem" holding up Turkish aid at NATO.

Even at home, where Chirac still retains widespread support for opposing the Iraq war, dissenters are emerging, particularly within his own UMP party.

"We must stop pursuing an ideological war with the United States around the international legality of this war, and not close ourselves off in a culture of niet," said UMP lawmaker Pierre Lellouche, during a Thursday debate at the National Assembly.

France's conservative Le Figaro newspaper echoed that warning in its own editorial today, which urged France to re-establish "relations of confidence" with London and Washington.

'Lost All Grip on Reality'

"The trilateral summit in St. Petersburg appears as a diversion," the newspaper wrote. "In prolonging the Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis, born from opposition to the war in Iraq, it strongly appears to be a reunion of the peace camp, which has lost all grip on reality."

Recent surveys show many French continue to oppose the Iraq conflict, even after the Iraqis rejoiced at their liberation by the U.S.-led coalition. But a poll published today also showed the majority supported the downfall of Saddam's regime.

"I have the impression that the dominant sentiment among French will continue to be that France was right to oppose the war," said Etienne Schweisguth, a researcher at Center for the Study of French Political Life. "But it's certain this view will be expressed with less vehemence and certainty than in the past."

'Very Difficult for France'

The next few months "will be very difficult for France on the global level," Defarges predicted. "But even at the global level the United States has a lot of things to do, and France will not be its main preoccupation after the Iraq war.

"In a way," Defarges said, "that's lucky for France."

Copyright 2003 by United Press International.

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