Dave Eberhart, Newsmax
Monday, Feb. 3, 2003

Conjecture about a possible new American approach to N. Korea was spawned by a broad remark by President Bush during his recent joint press conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair: "After September the 11th, the doctrine of containment just doesn't hold any water, as far as I'm concerned."

The President’s remark has been interpreted as applying beyond Iraq’s Saddam Hussein.

Over the weekend, Dr. Mohamed El Baradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, concluded ominously that only "weeks and months" could remain before N. Korea began converting its stores of nuclear fuel into weapons.

According to the Times, a senior U.S. official involved in gauging potential military responses to N. Korea’s reprocessing of nuclear fuel, disclosed, "We've been talking about a lot of very ugly scenarios that could play out in the next few weeks."

"What happens if they set off a nuclear test?" the expert asked. "If they launch another missile test? If they demand food, with a threat of using weapons?"

So far, however, the official Pentagon line on the reinforcements has been low key. Defense officials have said that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has been considering the move over the last several days but has reached no final decision.

"These are deterrent-type forces that would be put in place," a Defense Department official emphasized to the Times. The official added that the administration's policy of diplomacy-first had not changed. Another Pentagon official styled consideration of Adm. Fargo’s request "very careful, prudent planning."

In the meantime, Pentagon watchers opine that if the Japan-based carrier Kitty Hawk is deployed to the Persian Gulf in aid of a U.S.-led military intervention, the volatile Korean peninsula would be left lacking a full military compliment.

There is also conjecture reported by the Times that the naval and air reinforcements may indeed be ready assistance in case President Bush decides to order a pre-emptive strike against the nuclear complex at Yongbyon, N. Korea.

U.S. intelligence continues to record via satellite photographs unexplained and suspicious activity at the complex. However, the White House insists that it is premature to conclude that the North was racing to produce nuclear weapons.

Although the White House has been studiously avoiding provoking alarm over the North's activities, there have been clear warnings issued to the communist dictatorship. "Any steps toward beginning reprocessing would be yet another provocative action by North Korea intended to intimidate and blackmail the international community," Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer said.

Just what action may be provoked is another matter.

Condoleezza Rice, Bush’s National Security Advisor, has cautioned that when it comes to punishing an errant N. Korea, there are heady issues. Even a surgical attack on the offending N. Korean nuclear complex could provoke an attack by the North on Seoul, the South Korean capital. Such a crisis could result in hundreds-of-thousands of casualties, the advisor has warned.

The latest manifestation of the White House’s cautious, go-slow approach was a statement over the weekend by an administration official that it would welcome involving the U.N. Security Council in the issues with N. Korea. However, at the same time, there was a proviso that the U.N. action would be limited to a resolution -- without the immediate prospect for economic sanctions.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:

North Korea

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