John LeBoutillier
Monday, Dec. 1, 2003

Back in the summer, the nation was consumed with a still-slow economy, a raging controversy over a White House leak about a CIA agent, no WMD found in Iraq and the entire mess surrounding Ambassador Joseph Wilson's trip to Niger.

Underlying this summer of discontent was the steady drip-drip-drip of U.S. military casualties in Iraq coupled with several devastating car bombings in Baghdad.

All of this combined to lower President G.W. Bush's poll ratings to the lowest of his presidency. His crucial 're-elect number' was under 50 percent, a worrisome sign for any incumbent.

Now, as we head toward Christmas, things have changed – radically. Let us examine Mr. Bush's improving fortunes.

1) The crucial factor in any election is the underlying perception of the economy. Up until a month ago, the American people were expressing sourness and negativity about jobs and the economy.

But that has started to change with the steady flow of positive economic data and the apparent creation of new jobs. True, we have a long, long way to go to get enough new jobs back into the system, but the general mood of most people is good and positive.

This, more than anything else, is why Mr. Bush is smiling these days. When people feel good about their jobs, their IRAs, their family's jobs and the future, then their unhappiness with an incumbent president is reduced.

Right now Mr. Bush has that going in his direction for the first time since he took office.

2) Iraq: This is the other major factor that could undo the Bush campaign. If the deaths of GIs continue through next November, then Team Bush will be in trouble. But they are taking steps now to reduce the chances of that killing continuing.

By next summer the day-to-day police work will be transferred to new Iraqi troops; U.S. soldiers will be safely garrisoned on their bases out of harm's way. And June will hopefully see some sort of transfer of political sovereignty to a new Iraqi government.

If Team Bush can eliminate the killings of U.S. soldiers, then the ancillary issues such as "Where are the WMDs?" and "Where is Saddam?" will not rise to sufficient stature to cause Mr. Bush to be voted out of office.

3) Prescription Drugs for Medicare recipients: Yes, Mr. Bush can take credit for doing something no other president – Republican or Democrat – has done: Give this new benefit to some seniors.

The chattering political class says this is a huge victory for President Bush. And it may very well be. But there is a deep underlying cynicism among seniors. It is too early to tell if they are happy over this bill or not.

Don't be surprised if this drug benefit "political victory" turns out to be a political negative.

4) Gay marriage: This divisive and contentious issue gives the Bush White House just what it wants: a 'wedge' social issue. If former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is the Democrat nominee, then he is the perfect target for the Bush campaign. As governor, Dr. Dean signed into law a 'civil union' law and is on record as favoring the concept of gay marriage.

Team Bush will take this and use it the same way the 1988 Bush campaign ruined Gov. Michael Dukakis over his membership in the ACLU.

Conservatives – some of whom are growing unhappy with Mr. Bush's profligate spending – will rally to the GOP side over this gay marriage issue.

Summary: President Bush looks to be a good shape going into 2004. Sure, a lot can happen in the next 11 months. A new terror attack inside the U.S., a new scandal, an economic slowdown or something entirely unexpected can completely upset the apple cart.

But wouldn't you rather be running the Bush campaign today than anyone else's?

Editor's note:
If you love George Bush – you’ll love NewsMax’s "Bush Collection" – Check it out – Click here Now

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
2004 Elections
George W. Bush
Saddam Hussein/Iraq