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Why bin Laden Can't Be Caught Massoud AnsariOsama bin Laden is alive and well and continues to find refuge in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
A flurry of interest at the time of the second anniversary of 9/11 suggested that Pakistan was serious about capturing the world's most-wanted terrorist. Hundreds of Pakistani army regulars, backed by over two dozen Cobra helicopters, swarmed through the tribal areas. The movement of the battle-ready jawans of the Pak army in the areas bordering Afghanistan once again fueled speculation of a major operation under way to capture the al-Qaeda chief and his remnants. U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Nancy Powell said that bin Laden might be hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan, and Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat also claimed that the noose was tightening around bin Laden after the arrest of key al-Qaeda operatives. The September search operation ended once again without capturing any of the al-Qaeda ringleaders, and bin Laden and his deputy Al-Zawahiri surprised the world when they released a new videotape to the Arab TV channel Al-Jazeera. Wearing Afghani caps and holding walking sticks in their hands, both leaders were seen walking in rough, green mountains. The audio message accompanying the video but separate from it said the war is not yet over and the U.S. has seen just a tiny segment of it. "They will see the real show soon," the message said.
Last Seen
The experts on the terrorist organization have yet to figure out either where this video could have been filmed or bin Laden's whereabouts, but the last time the Saudi billionaire was spotted was on Dec. 8, 2001, in the Tora Bora caves in the Spin Ghar Mountains of eastern Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban regime. He is believed to have made video recordings for over an hour in these mountains, to be used as a motivational guide for his forces. He disappeared during the U.S. air strikes in the region soon afterward and is nowhere to be found since then. U.S. soldiers and their Pakistani counterparts have made at least several dozen attempts to capture him "dead or alive" following leads from captured al-Qaeda militants, but to no avail. Pakistani security officials admit that most of the time they have been given fake leads about the presence of bin Laden. "Whether fake or real, if there is a tip we had to follow it," says one security official. These security experts believe that the fall of Taliban and the continuous hunt for the al-Qaeda militants have smashed their terrorist network, but evidence over the past few months suggests that the tentacles of al-Qaeda are still active and have begun regrouping under the command of bin Laden, their 'guru'. These security experts fear that the original goals of the war on terror have been sidelined as Washington has poured men and resources into Iraq, first to overthrow Saddam Hussein and now to track him down.
That the U.S. is more interested in Iraq than hunting down al-Qaeda can be gauged from the fact that there are about 160,000 U.S. service personnel stationed in Iraq while only 11,500 are stationed in Afghanistan. "Not only the fact [that] the attention to track down these militants has been loosened or more concentration has been given to control Iraq, [but also] the al-Qaeda chief got some space to re-energize himself, and that is the reason that he once again has started guiding his network," says a security expert. He said that several hand-written messages seized recently and intercepted electronic messages, apparently from bin Laden, clearly indicate he is still actively leading his network. Those who are familiar with the terrorist organization's network believe that one reason the U.S. has failed to squeeze out correct information about bin Laden's whereabouts or to completely smash the network is the fact that al-Qaeda is working on a need-to-know basis.
"They only pass on information to individuals when it is necessary, and most of the time they are using either coded verbal messages or written scripts when deemed necessary," says Ikram ul-Majeed Seghal, a Pakistani defense analyst. These experts said one reason for intelligence agencies' failure to track down the al-Qaeda chief or the remnants of his organization is the fact that most of its cadres are highly motivated and are volunteers. "Many of them have said goodbye to their cushy lives, and it's highly impossible for these agencies to penetrate or to break them by offering them some money or other incentive," says another expert.
He said most of the lower and middle cadres of al-Qaeda are simply conveyed bin Laden's messages either through lookouts or coded electronic messages or handwritten notes, and they have hardly a clue to his whereabouts. "This is [what] they do to minimize the threat of being tracked down," the expert contends. Al-Qaeda insiders said even in Afghanistan, where they had a free hand, the Arab militants had always worked like a well-organized corporation and had departmentalized every aspect.
"They had separated fighters and trainers from those who were into planning, while [having] different sections that used to deal with logistics or the financial aspects of the organization," says an al-Qaeda insider who has worked closely with Arabs in Afghanistan and has requested not to be named. According to him, Abu Zubaydah, who was arrested in the Pakistani city of Faisalabad in March 2002, was actually the man in charge of transporting the Arabs to and from Afghanistan. "He was a great planner and had the network and resources and had managed to shift more than 70 percent of Arab warriors to their respective countries or to their safe houses outside Afghanistan just before the fall of Taliban," he said.
He said most of these Arabs are safely hiding in their various countries and are just waiting for the right time to carry on with their mission. "These member of al-Qaeda are now spread all over the world and can become deadly any time, also for the fact that all of them are ideologically motivated and are highly trained," he said. Taliban insiders said there had been thousands of Arabs coming and going throughout the '80s, but after bin Laden was given sanctuary by Taliban militia, some 15,000 Arabs came and obtained training in militancy. "There were people from so many others nationalities who were trained during [the] Taliban regime, but the Arabs used to undergo the toughest of the military exercises," said the al-Qaeda insider. According to him, these Arabs had established their network to the extent that after the fall of Taliban, they not only offered safe passage to the Pashtun members of the Taliban regime but also arranged safe houses for many of them. These insiders said the al-Qaeda operatives had initially planned to hide bin Laden, Dr. Al-Zawahiri and other important elements of the ranks in Farghona Valley in Uzbekistan, but they had to drop the plan after Juma Namangani, leader of the Islamic Union Movement, was wounded while fighting U.S. soldiers in Kunduz, Afghanistan, in November 2001. He is believed to have been injured seriously and succumbed to his wounds.
"Because of Juma's death they changed the plans to proceed to Farghona Valley and instead opted [for] other plans to hide their leaders," says a source. After Juma's death, bin Laden had no option but to sneak into Pakistan, where he was provided sanctuary in the tribal regions. "They finally chose the tribal regions in [the] north of Pakistan not for the reason that they were familiar with the terrain, but people in these areas had supported [the] conservative Taliban regime, have cultural affinity with them, and had fought together for years during Russian invasions of Afghanistan," says a source. Experts on the subject say if you look at a map it’s easy to realize that bin Laden could go nowhere except into Pakistani tribal regions if he was last in Tora Bora just before the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. "He knew that Taliban had lost control in Afghanistan and [the country] had been taken over by the U.S. and Northern Alliance, and he [could] never choose to go inside Afghanistan. The only option left for him was to cross to Pakistani tribal regions and that he did," says a source. According to intelligence sources, bin Laden escaped from Tora Bora with a few dozen of his trusted fighters through the Tira Valley, which is considered to be the most inaccessible part of Pakistan's tribal belt and is populated by fiercely independent tribesmen traditionally hostile to Pakistan. The area is home to Pashtun tribes, who answer to no law except the word of the local warlord. "Despite the fact that thousands of soldiers of [the] Pakistan army have entered into these tribal areas, ... these areas can still provide a safe sanctuary to the Saudi billionaire and his aides because of its social milieu and culture," says a Peshawer-based journalist. Some of the experts, Pakistani security officials and leading defense analysts believe that bin Laden, his deputy and the remnants of al-Qaeda cannot hide themselves for long in these tribal areas, for the reason that it is not easy for them to keep their 'sanctuary' a secret. "He [bin Laden] might have entered [the] Pakistan tribal belts in the beginning, but as far as I can analyze, he might have moved to bigger cities long, long ago," says Ikram Seighal. And if he has entered Pakistan, he could be anywhere in Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi or any other big city, Seighal said. He could have slipped into the major cities in a truck or similar transport in which his movement could not be suspected. "The equation is simple," Seighal said; it is much easier to be safe in a large city for a longer period than living in smaller towns or villages, where word of mouth can spread like wildfire. But contrary to this perception, other experts believe that it is not very difficult for Arabs to hide in these areas without being identified. Some of the experts even suggest that bin Laden is still hiding in the Pakistani northern tribal areas, which stretch the length of the mountain ranges that mark Pakistan's approximately 1,500-mile border with Afghanistan. "Arabs had lived in Afghanistan and had been coming and going since [the] early '80s through these tribal belts; they have not only picked up the local dialects ... they also look like locals due to the color of their skin," says a local journalist in Quetta. According to him, many of these Arabs have even married local women, and if you meet them, it would be difficult even for the locals to figure out if the person they are meeting is a local or an Arab. These experts said that in any case, these Arabs are there to hide themselves. While the authorities have failed to arrest the Saudi billionaire, security experts believe there is a danger that the longer he remains at large, the bolder and stronger the surviving al-Qaeda elements will feel. Massoud Ansari is a free-lance reporter in Karachi, Pakistan. He is also a senior reporter for Newsline, one of the leading newsmagazines in Pakistan.
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics: Editor's note:
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