John LeBoutillier
Thursday, Jan. 30, 2003

Previously reluctant allies are falling into line, and the momentum of military deployments makes war an almost certainty in the next two months.

Unless.

Unless Saddam and his sons and closest cronies are somehow removed from power - either by fleeing into exile or dispatched by a coup or by assassins.

And the unknown factor in all of this is Russia. Iraq has long been a client state of the Soviet Union. Moscow's military trained the senior Iraqi military leaders. And Russia has extensive business contracts for oil and military supplies with Baghdad. After all, who do you think resupplied Iraq after the Gulf War? And who cavalierly would bypass U.N. sanctions to do illegal business with Iraq?

Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want to see the American flag flying all over Iraq - especially over those invaluable oil fields. Such an American triumph would cost Moscow billions in previously signed contracts - and American access to Iraqi oil would cheapen the value of Russia's huge oil reserves.

Here is what may happen:

For the next few weeks, while we continue our troop deployment, we will be trying to assemble a diplomatic coalition to wage this war. Putin will be wooed - and will be watching carefully. Meanwhile, you can be assured he has a fallback plan to protect Russian interests in Iraq.

Tip-off to Imminent War

When the U.N. recalls the inspectors and removes them from Iraq, that will mean the war is about to begin.

When Putin sees that, he will move. He has two simple options:

1) Use his sway with Saddam to convince him to pack up - immediately - and go into safe exile with his illegally stolen billions safely stashed in foreign bank accounts.

2) If Saddam refuses to go, then Putin's ruthless special agents may kill Saddam and his sons - making it look like a coup.

3) A new Iraqi leader, secretly loyal to Moscow but seemingly "clean" to the world, will take over - all before a U.S. invasion.

This way Bush can triumphantly bring the troops home with his long-sought "coonskin," Saddam's scalp, which he thinks will help him get re-elected, unlike his father in '92 - while Russia and the Arabs can happily watch the 300,000 GIs leave the region without an invasion.

This result will be eerily like what Bush I did in Panama. We went in there to capture Manuel Noriega on the pretense that he was running illegal drugs into the U.S.

Indeed, we captured him and brought him to trial in Florida. He is in prison in the Sunshine State.

But guess what?

As even the Bush administration's DEA admits, Panama today - and right after Noriega's removal, too - is an even bigger source of illegal drugs than when Noriega ran it.

Iraq - after Saddam - may be just as bad or even worse.

All because of Russia's interests and intentions.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
Bush Administration
Russia
Saddam Hussein/Iraq
Editor's note:
Saddam Hussein’s race to make a nuclear bomb