Tiana Perez, NewsMax.com

Venezuela's Oil Crisis Bubbles

Feb. 18: Juan Fernandez, president of PDVSA’s Workers’ Association and strike leader, warned that production forecasts for the recently militarized state-owned company for the year to come do no exceed 2 million barrels a day, amounting to 65 percent of pre-strike volumes.

The president of PDVSA, former guerrilla leader Ali Rodríguez Araque, agreed on lower production forecasts for 2003.

Rodríguez rejected JPMorgan’s projections that PDVSA would reach 80 percent of capacity toward the end of 2003, assuring that the reactivation of refineries would be carried on “carefully”. He stated, however, that gasoline production would satisfy internal demand by the second week of March.

While production is restored, Rodríguez plans to continue importing gasoline and declined to comment on the quantities to be bought from foreign producers.

Skeptics believe that President Hugo Chavez’s tactic to further oppress the already weakened business sectors will include restricting internal gasoline supply while sustaining exports.

PDVSA is at the brink of defaulting on third-party obligations, such as the recently gasoline import contracts entered into by Chavez during the two-month strike that reduced oil production to 150,000 barrels a day, as well as on fees to the government.

In an attempt to weather the increased risks caused by the political significance of PDVSA, used as a tool by the opposition, the government is considering the sale of Citgo, a U.S. gasoline distribution firm, wholly owned by PDVSA. Citgo’s direct affiliation with the state-oil company renders its sale sensitive; the company’s president declared "the sale of any PDVSA affiliated company is not under consideration at this moment in time. However, as soon as the due diligence process ends, the sale of assets within and outside of the country might become a point to consider” (www.eluniversal, Feb. 17). The future of the company is in danger not only due to the possible sale of its parts, but also due to the massive layoffs amounting to 11,917 to date, mostly due to political reasons. It is hard to believe that the new users, who have not been trained within the oil sector, will be able to operate the remains of the company.

PDVSA workers’ protests continue in Caracas daily. Fernandez said the demonstrations would continue until an electoral solution to the president’s term is reached.

Dealing With Colombian Leftists' Terrorism

Feb. 14: The bodies of an American and a Colombian found amid the wreckage of U.S. government plane had bullet wounds, an official with the Colombian attorney general's office said today. The plane crash-landed in a southwestern province of Colombia controlled by the leftist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

The plane disappeared Thursday carrying Interior Minister of Social Protection Juan Luis Londoño and four Americans. The incident is attributed to FARC, the largest guerrilla group active in the country. The Marxist terrorist group, founded in the early 1960s, has also declared itself responsible for the explosion that killed 35 people and wounded 173 at Club Nogal, an elite meeting spot in the center of Bogotá.

The U.N. Security Council has approved Resolution 1373 with regard to the situation Colombia, dictating zero tolerance for terrorists. President Uribe had requested that FARC, National Liberation Army (ELN) and the paramilitary groups be given international terrorist status. This resolution would commit member countries to freeze terrorist accounts and impede free circulation limiting the number of countries that could provide political asylum.

The U.N. Security Council declared "in conformity with resolution 1373, it is imminent that member countries cooperate with Colombian authorities to show their support in the Colombian government’s effort to locate and try the organizers of the terrorists who committed the terrorist assault” (www.elnacional.com, Feb. 14).

Chavez's Plan to Stay in Power

Feb. 12: President Hugo Chavez has promised “jail time to the coup-plotters, boycotters and worker mafias” that incited the general strike halting Venezuela’s oil industry for two months.

He called on judges and prosecutors to apply all the force of the law and insisted on expanding the Supreme Court's membership, once controlled by him.

Recent messages reveal his plans of land redistribution, the blacklisting of a number of companies to exclude these from the limited sale of dollars after the implementation of foreign exchange controls Thursday, as well as the end of the “Dolce Vita” for those who sabotage his Bolivarian revolution.

Chavez uses a four-hour TV space every Sunday called “Hello, President” to air his messages and recently celebrated his 548th broadcasted hour.

Foreign-exchange controls promise to devastate the business sector after Chavez’s declaration that dollars would be sold only for “vital areas of development” (www.talcualgital.com, Feb. 10), citing as an example the expected governmental support for agriculture. Chavez plans to assign 70 percent of Venezuela's territory to his supporters.

He has announced that not “one dollar will be sold to the coup-plotters” (globovision, Feb. 6), as he calls businessmen. Businesses have started to close foreseeing the lack of dollars to import raw materials and components.

The Ministry of Labor has warned that fraudulent bankruptcies would be investigated in view of the law that prohibits companies to fire workers, passed last May.

The gasoline crisis, a major hindrance to the business sector, is being partially solved through imports. The government made the unlikely promise that 200,000 barrels would be released by today, satisfying 72 percent of internal demand.

Venezuelans, however, are still making eight-hour lines to pump gas.

Oil exports have been re-established to half of the pre-strike volumes in spite of the 9,000 oil workers fired to date whom Chavez plans to put on trial on the charges of sabotaging the economy.

He has also announced the granting of concessions to Chevron-Texaco and the Norwegian company Statoil to research gas fields in exchange for $1 billion, possibly paving the way for independence from PDVSA’s contributions.

The next step for Chavez’s government will be to shut down several TV stations once the media-restricting “Law of Contents” is passed by parliament. The law would violate all international treaties entered into by the Venezuelan government on freedom of speech.

So far, the law states that user committees will censor indecent material, but also information that can incite to disrespect the institutions.

Talks between the government and the opposition have reached a stalemate. The Group of Friends, composed of Brazil, the U.S., Chile, Mexico, Spain and Portugal, has expressed its irritation due to Chavez’s victorious tone.

The opposition’s request is still to push for the amendment of the constitution to reduce the president’s period from six to four years. The government, however, does not consider this as an option and has recently placed all future decisions on a soon-to-be elected National Electoral Committee after being declared invalid by the government as it voted in favor of a non-binding referendum last month, as well as on the Supreme Courts of Justice.

The expansion of the Supreme Court and the new election of the Electoral Committee need to be approved by parliament, in large support of Chavez.

The course that the Venezuelan crisis will take heavily depends on the outcomes of both electoral procedures and on the response by the opposition, which is unquestionably radicalized.

Peru’s Corruption and Crisis in Human Rights

Feb. 11: Peru’s parliament recommended Monday that the Peruvian supreme court introduce an extradition request to the Japanese government demanding that former President Alberto Fujimori’s status of political refugee be suspended on the grounds of torture.

Journalist Fabián Salazar declared he was tortured by the agents of the intelligence service on May 24, 2000.

Fujimori, of Japanese descent, has been living in exile in Japan since 2001 as he fled from Peru amid a corruption scandal that toppled his presidency.

Germany, the first country to challenge his status as a political refugee, has accused him of crimes related to abusive, dictatorial and despotic exercise of power. His 10-year presidential period was marked by the dismantling of Maoist terrorist group Shining Path, as well as by radical measures such as the “auto coup d’etat” that in dissolving the Peruvian Congress allowed him to rule by decree. Shining Path terrorists killed roughly 30,000 Peruvians as they carried on a campaign of car bombings, political assassinations and mass murder of the peasant community. About 600,000 civilians were displaced as a consequence of the forced recruiting of followers, led by now-imprisoned guerrilla chief Abigail Guzman.

The extradition request project comes as part of a Human Rights Watch campaign in favor of just trials for Shining Path terrorists jump-started by the parents of American citizen Lori Berenson, arrested in 1995 for collaboration with the terrorist group.

Hooded judges at military tribunals tried 900 terrorists during the 1990s, a measure taken to carry out the long-sought trials. Most judges refused to pass verdicts in view of guerrilla reprisals. Berenson, too, was tried at a military court that sentenced her to life imprisonment and later on at a civilian tribunal that passed a verdict of 20 years of imprisonment.

Following suit, the Constitutional Tribunal of Peru ruled on Jan. 3 against unconstitutional measures taken by Fujimori’s government to try the terrorists. The tribunal alleged neglect of “a just process, respect of fundamental human rights, assumption of innocence, as well as of the guarantee of a competent, independent and impartial tribunal,” according to a high commissioner (www.elcomercio.com.pe, Feb. 8).

Peruvians, however, are less concerned with Fujimori’s disrespect for international human rights standards now that the country finally enjoys peace after 20 years of guerrilla warfare, as much as with the corruption scandals that involve him and his collaborators.

Recent polls suggest that 8 out of 10 Peruvians are skeptical of their judicial system (www.elcomercio.com.pe). Feb. 18, however, will mark the start of a trial against former Interior Minister Montesinos, who was captured by FBI agents in Venezuela in June 2001.

Montesinos, whose recordings of all governmental dealings unleashed the corruption crisis, is expected to provide important clues during the next few months.

Bush Helps Colombia Fight Terrorism

Feb. 7: One year after the halting of peace talks between former President Pastrana’s government and Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC), President Uribe Velez is negotiating the handoff of politicians and military officers kidnapped by FARC, the largest guerrilla group active in the country.

The Marxist terrorist group asks to have a number of rebels released from jail in exchange. President Uribe has agreed to the handoff on condition that the U.N. is present and the rebels do not stay in Colombia once they are freed.

Archbishop Luis Augusto Castro said "negotiations are at an advanced stage but details need to be kept secret as to not raise false expectations or interrupt the process” (www.eluniversal.com, Feb. 6).

Simultaneously, Uribe has received strong backing by the U.S. government to dismantle the terrorist groups. President Bush included $$574.6 million in his 2004 budget for the fight against terrorism in Colombia.

The primary purpose of the aid package will be to destroy illicit cocaine leaf and poppy plantations, estimated to provide the guerrilla with US$8 million a month. According to the State Department, the guerrillas keep 494,210 acres of coke leaf plantations and 24,710 acres of poppy seed fields (El Tiempo, Feb. 3).

The project includes resumption of an above-ground intervention plan halted in 1995 as a consequence of the accidental crash of a Peruvian military plane into a commercial plain that killed a U.S. missionary. An additional US$10 million is being sought by the Pentagon to assist Colombian refugees.

Colombia’s Justice Minister, Marta Lucia Ramirez, has announced that the government’s plan to fight terrorism is being tested in the eastern province of Arauca, where two foreign journalists on assignment to the Los Angeles Times were released Saturday by National Liberation Army (ELN), a Cuban-inspired guerrilla group.

Arauca’s mountainous 1,375-mile border with Venezuela serves as an escape way to Colombian guerrillas sought by the armed forces.

Ramirez declared that government officials were trying to seek more cooperation from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, but acknowledged that "it has so far been very difficult” (El Tiempo, Feb. 1).

The strategy to eliminate the guerrillas includes a three-month siege in Arauca. The declaration of a state of emergency allows the government to take political, military and taxation measures that would otherwise not be granted.

Chavez: 'Our Time to Attack'

Feb. 5: As the strike against leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez loses power, he and his backers are growing bolder.

Supporters injured four people Tuesday when they opened fire on the offices of Caracas' opposition mayor. The attack marred the government's commemoration of the 11th anniversary of a failed coup led by Chavez.

Venezuelans gathered Sunday in close to 3,000 improvised voting centers around the country to hand in their signatures in support of ousting Chavez. Albis Munoz, representative of the main opposition body, stated “nearly 4 million participated in support of the Alternative Referendum,” banned by the government on the grounds that time constraints would not allow for its implementation.

The non-binding referendum envisioned by the constitution is only a survey on the president’s popularity. El Universal quoted Munoz as saying, “The number of people who signed yesterday surpasses the number of votes in his favor during the 1998 election that brought him to power,” clearly showing the general sentiment in Venezuela.

The consultative Alternative Referendum was expanded to include 10 issues, including the amendment of articles related to free speech, presidential and congressional terms, the annulment of 49 presidential economic decrees, as well as the request to have striking oil workers who were recently fired by Chavez return to their jobs.

The main opposition body assures that the signatures will not be dated once the government and the opposition resolve the stalemate and has consented to have the signatures used for whichever decision is reached by the roundtable discussions mediated by the Group of Friends, which includes Chile, Mexico, Brazil, Spain and Portugal. Sunday was also an important day for the government, whose supporters chose to stay at home and watch the president’s seven-hour program broadcast through the government’s channel.

Chavez referred to his victory over the alternative referendum, which he deemed illegal, and stated “there will be no safeguard this year. They will have to take care of their own defense. Adversaries to the nation, the coup plotters, the terrorists, fascists, shield yourselves as it is our time to attack. Do not come asking for mercy as we are attacking in all respects.”

The Next NAFTA: Free Trade Area of the Americas

Feb. 3: Next November, Miami will host the VIII Free Trade Ministerial, including countries from Canada to Chile, paving the way for the Free Trade Area of the Americas. The FTAA, envisioned to be completed by 2005, eliminating tariffs between the 34 member countries, seeks to create a free trade area of 800 million consumers, drastically surpassing the biggest common market, the European Union with 370 million.

The campaign to bring the Permanent Secretariat of the FTAA to Miami is lead by Gov. Jeb Bush, who recently appointed Ambassador Charles Cobb to lead Florida’s FTAA efforts. The governor remarked during a press conference Friday that “bringing the secretariat to Miami would relate the Americas to the American experience.”

The FTAA would provide for an increase in exports to Latin America of US$200 billion over the next 10 years. The treaty is comparable to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which includes Mexico, Canada and the U.S., and has brought an annual gain in savings between US$1,260 and US$2,040 for an average American family of four, according to the U.S. Trade Representative Office.

A major benefit of the FTAA will be its ability to create jobs nationally and internationally as domestic and Foreign Direct Investment increase. In the case of Central and South America job creation is not only a means of fostering growth, but also a tool to shift labor away from drug manufacturing, inextricably tied to terrorist movements that continue to plague the region.

The belief behind the FTAA is that as economies improve, the accomplishment of important reforms such as the rule of law, increased transparency, human rights and anti-corruption initiatives is more attainable.

Talks between these 34 countries have triggered worldwide protests from the anti-globalization and anti-American groups since they began in 1994. The supporters of the anti-trade movement travel the world to protest against the “neo-liberal” policies being negotiated at the World Trade Organization (WTO), G-8 and G-7 summits, which they assure serves the rich countries’ "imperialistic" attempt to take over the poor.

Demonstrations often turn violent, resulting in the burning of the American flag, as seen in Seattle during the annual WTO meeting held in 1999, including deaths, as was the case in Genoa during a G-8 summit.

Additionally, leftist Brazilian President Inacio “Lula” da Silva's initiative to try to negotiate as a block, rather than unilaterally to increase the chances of better conditions for Latin America’s major markets, may polarize negotiations thus adding to the difficulties of the extensive agreement.

Many fear that the 2005 deadline might not be met, postponing the development of the Americas toward a much-awaited common market.

Marxist Mayhem in Colombia

Jan. 31: One of the three main terrorist groups operating in Colombia, Cuban-inspired National Liberation Army (ELN), kidnapped Ruth Morris and Scott Dalton, L.A. Times journalists on assignment in the eastern province of Arauca.

ELN announced Tuesday that the two would be freed only after International Red Cross and other amnesty organizations gave due attention to their version of the facts. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, however, refused today to meet the Marxists' demands to halt military offensives during the handoff.

Foreign reporters used to work under tacit protection by the terrorist groups allowing them to freely report events. No more.

Under increased pressures from Uribe, who won the elections with a majority of 53 percent in May 2002 due to his clear determination to attack guerrilla groups, Colombia’s terrorists see themselves threatened from the side of the government, their suppliers and other collaborators, and are responding accordingly.

Coca leaf and poppy farmers now have the alternative to substitute their crops with legal products under the U.S.-sponsored Plan Colombia, possibly paving the way for a permanent success of the coordinated crackdown on the guerrillas.

President Uribe’s hard-line policy against the Colombian guerrillas comes as a radical shift from former President Pastrana’s strategy to negotiate with Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a Marxist guerrilla movement that has taken ownership of drug-trafficking operations, thus becoming the establishment among the guerrilla groups.

National Liberation Army (ELN), which surged as a competing movement to FARC in 1965 and whose model is the Cuban revolution, has lately been said to be working in conjunction with FARC in an effort to ally against the enemy, the government.

Third in the landscape are the ultra-radical right-wing paramilitary forces, Colombian United Self-defense (AUC), which gained significance during the 1980s and was organized by the farmers themselves to form an armed opposition to the guerrillas in view of the ineffectiveness of the government to eradicate terrorism.

As a matter of fact, FARC’s foremost condition during negotiations with former Pastrana had usually been the elimination of AUC. The current government, however, has proposed dialogues of peace in an effort to demobilize the paramilitaries, to which AUC has agreed as of Dec. 1, 2002.

Moreover, the paramilitaries have been granted judicial benefits as of last Wednesday that only the guerrillas used to have. Such benefits include the termination of legal procedures and the conditional suspension of execution for those who confess.

The tactical move by the Colombian government is possibly designed to detangle the sources of violence and have the paramilitary forces represented by AUC cooperate in dismantling FARC and ELN.

The eastern province of Arauca, core of guerrilla warfare, has become the center of attention by the central government, which has suspended the collection of oil royalties by the provincial government after allegations that FARC works in conjunction with local authorities.

It is a common practice that businessmen pay fees to the guerrillas to secure protection for their companies, but it seems that local authorities have sided with the guerrillas in accepting bribes to follow through with business.

Meanwhile, 60 specially trained U.S. military officials have arrived into the province to aid President Uribe’s administration and Special Forces in combating the issue.

Uribe, whose public support reaches about 70 percent, according to unofficial polls, has so far been well received by the Colombian population in spite of the increase in violence not only in the provinces but also in the capital, Bogota, which guerrilla groups had usually kept out of.

It seems that the Colombian population is taking the retaliation by the guerrilla groups as a necessary toll to finally give a permanent end to violence.

Lula's Double Play

Jan. 29: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva received praise in Washington for the first measures taken by his recently elected government. As John B. Taylor, under secretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department stated, "We're all already quite encouraged by the economic leadership that President Lula and his economic team have shown."[1]

Lula’s campaign of ending hunger, fighting corruption and dealing with drug trafficking was also well received.

Lula, a former union leader, had spread fears throughout the hemisphere and financial markets during his campaign for the presidency. His populist rhetoric and anti-American position were not well received by Washington, which fearing a Castro-Chavez-Lula “Axis of Evil” hped for the diplomatic evolution of Brazil’s president.

Since Lula was named president on Jan. 1, his policies have included raising interest rates to halt inflation rather than the deficit-increasing and job-creating policies announced during his campaign.

The U.S. will now become the largest importer of Brazilian products with a volume of US$15.5 billion. However, he remains critical of the U.S. and condemns its protectionist measures, a main point to tackle during the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA).

Brazil and the U.S. co-chair the FTAA negotiation process, which will eliminate tariffs between 34 countries in the Americas, including Canada and the Caribbean. The treaty is expected to be launched in 2005 and bring the about a US$25 billion increase in export revenues. However, Lula said in a joint press conference with French President Jacques Chirac during his trip to Paris last Tuesday, "We can't accept American protectionism as a prerequisite to our participation in a free trade agreement."[2]

Chirac said Lula complained about the highly subsidized U.S. agricultural sector, remarking that, “the U.S. spends more on subsidizing its farmers than the EU.”[3] Lula announced that he would be working extensively with the EU representing Mercosur, a trading block composed of Argentina, Brasil, Paraguay and Uruguay, including associate members Chile and Bolivia, to expand Brazilian exports in an attempt to reduce dependence from U.S. markets.

At the press conference, he also agreed with the Franco-German axis’ stance toward war in Iraq, following the slogan that carried him to the presidency, “Lula Peace and Love.”

Along the same lines, Lula, who is pursuing an international campaign for the “hearts and minds” of the world, is also scheduled to meet with German President Gerhard Schroeder this week. He mentioned that the relationship between Brazil and Europe was sometimes more sentimental than economic and that “in these four years, an immense effort would be made to transform this relationship into a more daring and economically deeper matter.”[4]

Lula was the only president who attended both the World Economic Forum, a pro-free-trade gathering that took place in Davos, Switzerland, as well as the World Social Forum, an anti-globalization event that started three years ago with a clear anti-American stance.

His message at Davos was for free markets and trade with promises to attack poverty and hunger. This, of course, spurred criticism among his left-wing supporters, many belonging to his Worker’s Party, to which he replied, “A good coach is not one who begins winning but ends winning the game.”[5]

[1]: Miami Herald, Jan. 28
[2, 3]: Wall Street Journal, Jan. 28
[4]: El Universal, Jan. 28
[5]: Financial Times, Jan. 27

Chavez Accused of Terrorism, Crimes Against Humanity

Jan. 28: Spanish lawyer Luis Garcia Perulles has confirmed that a complaint has been filed at the National Spanish Council against president of Venezuela Hugo Chavez alleging crimes against humanity, violation of human rights and terrorism.

The action has come as a result of the death of José Antonio Gamallo, a Spanish citizen who was transported to Spain after having been seriously wounded during the protests that preceded the attempted coup on April 11, 2001.

The massive protest attended by more than 1 million people in the center of Caracas left a death toll of 17, leading to a trial and hearings at the National Assembly that lasted for more than one month. Lawyers representing the dead protesters did not accomplish more than a political discussion at the National Assembly despite having presented video proofs of Chavez backers and members of the government shooting at the peaceful crowd.

The hearings, which had as their high point the disclosure of recorded phone conversations by senior military officials between the president and members of the armed forces at Miraflores, the presidential palace, show that Chavez had ordered to unleash the “Plan Avila” on the morning before senior military officials asked him to resign.

The “Plan Avila” is a contingency plan designed to suppress civilians and foresees the seizure of the street by tanks and the armed forces. Gen. Rosendo, who was put in charge of the plan and one of the disclosers of this information at the National Assembly, considered the plan an unjustifiable atrocity toward the unarmed protesters and did not proceed to carry it on.

Following the inability of the Venezuelan judicial system to resolve the case, the lawyers representing Gamallo have taken the complaint to the international arena.

"The Venezuelan State is doing everything possible to obstruct the approval of judicial decisions,”[1] said Garcia, one of the lawyers, in reference to the proceedings caused by the events on April 11th.

He assured that the filing of the complaint accusing the government of terrorist activities before the Spanish judicial authorities was based on evidence about the redirection of funds to terrorist groups’ accounts. Garcia explained that his evidence included audiovisual material that would be evaluated by the assigned judge.

When consulted about the judicial proceedings that will be launched in Spain, Venezuelan Vice President José Vicente Rangel declared "this shows gross ignorance about what a state of law is. It is important to exhaust all national judicial resources before an international action is started. Secondly, I think it reveals a complete lack of imagination and sense of responsibility.”[2]

He charged that the ones who should be put on trial were those who sabottaged the oil industry, disrupted two months ago with the beginning of the general strike against President Chavez's rule.

PDVSA, the state oil company, remains occupied by military forces and is operating with 5,000 employees less, who had left their posts and left their posts as a protest against an increased politization of the company. Meanwhile, oil exports have been restored to about one-third of usual daily production of 3.1 million barrels.

[1]: www.globovision.com, Jan. 28
[2]: El Universal, Jan. 28

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