Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Friday, Sept. 6, 2002

On April 26, 2002, the Chinese newspaper Renmin Ribao devoted a special article to the emerging complexities in U.S.-Saudi relations (major thesis only):

"Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz warned U.S. President George W. Bush about the risks the U.S. faces if it continues with a Middle East policy widely perceived in the Arab world as favoring Israel, during a five-hour meeting at Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas – two hours longer than the original plan."

In May-July, Renmin Ribao and other leading Beijing newspapers and magazines, as well as Xinhua news agency, published additional messages of the same kind, stressing "growing pains" in U.S.-Saudi relations.

In August, when the prospect of U.S. action against Iraq became really serious, the flow of such messages in the Beijing media increased greatly. Particularly, on Aug. 8, all the Beijing papers reprinted the statement of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud that Saudi Arabia will not give the U.S. access to bases in the kingdom for an attack on Saddam Hussein. And on Aug. 20-22, Renmin Ribao, Guangming Ribao, and the China Daily published a series of articles supporting the Saudi side in its dispute with Washington. Following are quotes from two of them.

China Daily, Aug. 20 – The U.S. is increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia to force internal changes and a softer line on Iraq and the Palestinians. This includes filing of a multi-trillion-dollar lawsuit by relatives of the Sept. 11 attack victims against Saudi Islamic organizations and three top royals, as well as the statement of Rand Corp. executive Laurent Murawiec, who branded Saudi Arabia a U.S. enemy.

Saudi papers and local diplomats responded harshly, calling this a "pressure campaign" and claiming that Saudi Arabia won't give up.

Particularly, after the filing of the U.S. lawsuit, major Saudi papers angrily considered this as financial and political blackmail aimed at undermining the kingdom's economic strength and called for a lawsuit to be brought against Washington.

Renmin Ribao, Aug. 22 – Saudi Arabia and the U.S., which have long been strategic allies, have been at odds in the past months. Relations soured recently as relatives of victims of the Sept. 11 terror attacks sued Saudi Arabia for financing terrorist organizations, and the Rand Corp., a think tank of the U.S. government, branded Saudi Arabia as the "kernel of evil" in the Middle East.

Despite repeated proclamations by the Bush administration that the strategic and traditional ties between the two sides remain as stable and strong as ever, U.S. security departments have arrested several Saudis living in the U.S. and frozen their bank accounts. At the same time, the U.S. media launched an unprecedented campaign against Saudi Arabia. As a result, Saudis living in America complained about unfair treatment in public places and many of them chose to leave. …

What is happening in America angered Saudis who believe that the Sept. 11 terror attacks are the outcome of Washington's long-standing support for Israel and its hostile policies toward Islamic countries. Anti-U.S. sentiment in Saudi Arabia boiled over in March and April into street protests, in open defiance of a ban on demonstrations, after Israeli troops occupied Palestinian-held West Bank cities.

What will become of the Saudi-U.S. ties? Will the two countries become enemies? Saudi Arabia has enormous influence in the Arab/Islamic world, as it provides large amounts of aid to the poor nations in the region. … Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest oil producers with a daily output of 11 million barrels of crude oil, exports to the U.S. 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. … Sixty percent of the current Saudi overseas investments of some 750 billion U.S. dollars go to the U.S., creating about 1.4 million jobs for Americans. … Still, the Saudi-U.S. alliance is witnessing downturn. …

The U.S., the self-styled mouthpiece and defender of so-called Western "democracy, freedom and human rights," is actively promoting around the globe Western values, thus running afoul of Saudi Arabia's Islamic culture. After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the U.S., which is supposed not to quarrel publicly with Riyadh in view of its fundamental interests in Saudi Arabia, went out of its way to condemn the latter for enforcing Islamic laws and rejecting modernization and Western civilization. Disputes over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the issue of Iraq have further worsened the subtle relationship between Washington and Riyadh. … (end of quote)

Such open support of the Saudi position by a CPC (Communist Party of China) mouthpiece should not be underestimated.

Oil Background

On Aug. 16, the Beijing-based Jingji Ribao (Economic Daily), a "legend" in the Chinese business world, published the article "Broad prospects of cooperation between China and Gulf countries: by 2010, 95 percent of China's imported oil will come from the Middle East" (very briefly; comments in parentheses).

Persian Gulf oil and gas deposits reached 474 billion barrels and 25.6 trillion cubic meters, respectively 45.8 percent and 16.5 percent of the world's deposits. The Gulf countries accumulated financial resources of several trillion dollars, their total foreign investment surpassed $1 trillion.

At the same time, the booming Chinese economy relies on rapidly expanding imports of oil and oil products; 51 percent of this import originates in Gulf countries. This dependence will become stronger in the future. Despite the prospect of significant oil imports from Russia and Indonesia, probably by 2010, 95 percent of Chinese crude oil imports will come from the Middle East.

China's trade with Gulf countries (evidently, excluding Iran) increased from $5 billion in 1995 to $10.12 billion in 2000. China's export to these countries – UAE, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia – expanded from $2.6 billion in 1999 to $3.67 billion in 2000. This trade additionally expanded in 2001-2002.

Saudi Arabia became a major investor in China. This country constructed two large oil refineries. (In particular, ExxonMobil, jointly with China Petrochemical Corp. (SINOPEC) and Saudi Arabia's Aramco Overseas Co., are going to construct, in Quanzhou city of southeastern Fujian province, a petrochemical complex, processing 8 million tons of Saudi crude oil and producing 600,000 tons of ethylene, 450,000 tons of polyethylene and 300,000 tons of polypropylene annually. The Saudi side will provide $750 million of the total $3 billion investment.)

In the coming years, China should expand its economic, financial and technological exchange with the Gulf countries. Growing imports of hydrocarbons will be accompanied by expansion of Chinese electronics, other finished goods and software deliveries to the Gulf. (end of quotation)

Indeed, economic relations between China and the Gulf countries are on the rise.

'Weapon Background' and Final Conclusions

On Aug. 12-13, Shijie Ribao (World Journal, the most popular Chinese-language paper in the U.S.) published two messages regarding the Chinese weapon trade in the Middle East.

1) According to informed sources in Ankara, China continuously increases exports of the most destructive weapons to such Middle East countries as Egypt, Iran, Libya, Syria and … Saudi Arabia. This includes non-conventional weaponry.

2) During the last 10 years, Saudi Arabia imported from China 120 units of DF-3 ballistic missiles with a 3,500 km range, capable of carrying nuclear, chemical and biological warheads. They are located mostly in the El-Solayil and Al-Jofar military bases, respectively 500 km and 100 km from Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh. (end of messages)

Supply of Chinese weapons to Iran and upgrade of the Iraqi air-defense system by the leading Chinese electronics company Huawei Technologies are well known. Chinese sales of long-range missiles to Saudi Arabia as well as deliveries of artillery systems to Kuwait until recently didn't attract special attention.

Preliminary conclusions could be as follows:

1) China used the U.S. problems with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries – the 9-11 strikes, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, forthcoming U.S. action against Iraq – to "fill the freed niche" instantly, i.e., to increase its geopolitical and economic presence in this key zone of the world. There is no doubt that China will continue in the same direction.

2) In the coming years, China will spare no efforts to improve political relations with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and UAE. Beijing intends to use "new relations" with these countries for dramatic increase of oil and gas imports, attracting huge investment from the Persian Gulf and, simultaneously, expanding its presence in the rich local weapons market.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

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