Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Thursday, Sept. 26, 2002

Now, evidently, it is time to ask the current administration to "Stop coddling Putin!"

The "internal reasons" are the same as in 1997; in addition, Russia has been transformed into a country controlled by the FSB/KGB – i.e., mafia of mafias. However, "foreign policy factors" are now incomparably greater.

Major Events of June-September 2002

Beginning in September 2001, Vladimir Putin has played "America’s ally" – at least for those in American political and business circles who are inclined to self-delusion and look at Russia through rose-colored glasses.

However, now again we see that Moscow has returned to its old ways. The author proposes two major reasons for this return:

1. In the beginning of June, Putin twice held talks with Jiang Zemin, in Astana (the capital of Kazakhstan) and Petersburg; almost simultaneously, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov visited China. In August, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov held very important negotiations in Beijing with Chinese supreme leaders. This resulted in significant upgrading of the Chinese-Russian alliance and – naturally – in the deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations.

2. The dramatic rise of oil prices, in April-September 2002, gave Kremlin new chances for survival. Instantly, the behavior of Moscow became – in the typical New Russian manner – extremely impudent.

More concretely:

1) Russia greatly expanded military supplies to China; in January-August 2002, the two countries concluded weapons supply contracts – including the most advanced missile destroyers, diesel-electric submarines, SU-30 fighters, air-defense missile systems and military helicopters – for an estimated $7 billion. This figure doesn’t include new agreements for the development of a new generation of space, aircraft and nuclear technology.

Without a doubt, these new contracts could have, as soon as 2005-2006, very bad consequences for Taiwan, Japan and U.S. troops stationed in East Asia and the Western Pacific.

2) At the end of July and the beginning of August, Russia and Iran reached an agreement prescribing (a) rapid finalization of the construction of Iran’s first nuclear station in Bushehr, (b) construction of six more nuclear reactors, with very heavy assistance from the Russian Ministry of Nuclear Energy (Minatom), in Iran.

According to Western experts, this "peaceful cooperation" greatly facilitates development of Iran’s program of nuclear weapons. The Kremlin and Minatom ignored the protests of the U.S. administration.

3) In mid-August, Moscow and Baghdad reached preliminary agreement on unprecedented large-scale economic cooperation – about $40 billion. After the agreement, Moscow took a hard line, adamantly opposing any military action against Iraq.

On Sept. 15-21, President Bush called Putin several times and held talks in the White House with "two Ivanovs" (Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov) soliciting them for support against Iraq, with no results. Mildly speaking, this was very unpleasant.

4) During August and the first half of September, Russia’s Defense Ministry and Foreign Ministry made a series of tough anti-Georgian statements, using as a pretext "the presence of Chechen terrorists in the Pankisi Gorge" (a small valley in Georgia bordering Russia). In the beginning of September, Russian bombers made a strike in Georgian territory.

And on Sept. 11, Putin himself threatened Georgia with a heavy military strike if the Georgian government didn’t meet Russia’s demands. Again, Washington protested, again with no results.

The REAL Reason

By the way, almost nobody knows the REAL reason for Moscow’s saber-rattling.

On Sept. 16, after five years of negotiations, British Petroleum and other prominent Western companies started construction of an oil pipeline from Baku (capital of Azerbaijan) to Ceihan (a seaport on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey). When this project is finished in 2006, a large flow of oil will go from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, bypassing Russia, to the world market.

This is absolutely unacceptable to Moscow, which intends to control – directly or indirectly – the huge hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian basin and all of Central Asia. That’s why Moscow intends to strike Georgia, completely destabilizing the situation in this troubled republic, and undermine the Baku-Ceihan project.

In addition, the Kremlin continues to support, to the maximum degree possible, all the anti-American regimes and movements around the world – in North Korea, Palestine, Venezuela, etc.

Major Conclusions

Let’s look at the major goals of the Putin regime, which are now more evident than ever.

1) Keep oil prices, both short- and mid-term, at the present high level or even increase them above $30 per barrel.

Generally, that’s why Russia is against any military action against Iraq: If Saddam were "out," the situation in the Middle East would become more stable and world oil prices would return to $20-25 per barrel. This is unacceptable to Moscow!

This also explains the "neutral" (de facto supporting Arafat and Palestinian extremists) position of Moscow in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This conflict also inflates world oil prices.

One could counter that Russia has increased its oil exports, thus improving the world oil balance, and recently even sent several hundred thousand tons of oil directly to the U.S.

But Iraq sends, also directly to the U.S., 15 million tons of oil annually. Does this mean anything?

2) Maximize export of weapons and dual technologies, including nuclear ones. These exports – to China, the "axis of evil" and other "countries of concern" – are measured in many billions of dollars. And the U.S. has to increase greatly its military and home-security expenses – just to properly respond to the new threats.

Every dollar of Russian export of weapon and dual technology results in several dollars of additional expenses for America!

3) In all ways, Moscow crosses the U.S. and its close allies. And this is not occasional. Gleb Pavlovsky and other Putin strategists don’t hide the fact that the Kremlin is interested in the geopolitical defeat of America, the diminishing of its global role and, as a result, the recovery of Russia’s "old glory," up to retaining the superpower status of the USSR. Who will dare deny this evident fact now?

There is a term in geopolitics: "ontological [basic] enemy." The ontological enemies of America are limited officially now to the "axis of evil." But what about the Putin regime?

Brief Recommendations

1) It is necessary to recognize, as soon as possible, that Putin’s regime is no ally of America, and that the U.S. will get nothing except new troubles in this "alliance" with Putin. Let’s "get real” – enough of illusions!

2) America should prepare to respond in the toughest way possible if Putin attacks Georgia. This aggression, if it takes place, should result in the crushing defeat of Putin’s regime.

3) One could say, "This will help the Communist opposition in Russia." The recent events – the governor elections in the Krasnoyarsk region, the vote in the Russian Duma over the Referendum law, etc. – show that Communist and nationalist opposition in Russia is extremely weak or even irrelevant. Moreover, this so-called opposition is merely a tool Putin uses to scare the West and to get new financial and political concessions from Western countries.

However, there IS a real opposition to Moscow – in Russia’s peripheral regions. And this opposition should eventually become an object of great interest and attention.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

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