Dr. Alexandr Nemets
Monday, Sept. 23, 2002

In mid-May 2002, the South China Morning Post and some other Hong Kong papers published a series of reports regarding the Varyag aircraft carrier that had just arrived in China. The reports can be compressed into the following:

The aircraft carrier, built by Nikolayev Shipyard in Ukraine, owned by a Hong Kong firm and initially intended to be used as a floating casino and hotel, came in May 2002 to Dalian Shipyard, one of the largest and most advanced in China, after being towed for 110 days by tugboats halfway around the world. The Varyag was bought for $20 million in 1998.

The ship is surrounded in Dalian with heavy security, which bars civilian access; police officers flank the shipyard entrance. This has fueled speculation that the Varyag is being used by the Chinese military in an attempt to build its first operational aircraft carrier.

Varyag no longer has the nuclear reactors that were installed by the Ukrainian state-run Generating Systems of Crimea. Presently 70 percent complete, Varyag weighs only 33,600 tons. Construction on this Kuznetzov-class carrier was started in 1985, but work ceased in 1992 after the Soviet Union's collapse and the ship's transfer to the Ukrainian government, which could not find the exorbitant $200 million to finish the construction. (end of messages)

After getting this information, the author came to the conclusion that (a) the probability of Varyag becoming PLAN's (PLA Navy's) first aircraft carrier could be estimated as about 70 percent, and (b) this project could be completed by 2006.

Negotiations between China and Ukraine regarding the Varyag purchase started in 1995.

On Dec. 29, 1995, the Moscow-based Segodnya newspaper (closed by order of President Putin in spring 2001) wrote:

"As expected, in 1996, China will buy from Ukraine the aircraft-carrying heavy cruiser Varyag, now 70 percent finished. Construction was terminated in 1992. Varyag has a full deadweight of 70,500 tons, a length of 304 meters, a maximal speed of 32 knots [about 58 km per hour]. Varyag could deploy up to 24 fighters with vertical landing/takeoff [VTOL], such as SU-25 UTG, SU-27 K, MiG-29L, and up to 42 naval combat helicopters, such as KA-29 and KA-31. In addition, a number of [cruise] missiles could be deployed from Varyag."

Almost simultaneously, discussions about acquiring the first Chinese aircraft carrier began among the PLA top brass. They soon spread throughout the entire Chinese society. For example, in 1998 the Beijing media claimed, based on the results of public polls, that "construction of Chinese aircraft carriers is one of the top desires of Chinese youth."

According to the Zhongguo Xinxi Bao newspaper (published by the China State Statistical Department) on Jan. 14, 2002, "a poll conducted in November 2001 and embracing over 4,200 people in Chinese cities gave the following answers to the question: 'What do you expect during the coming five years [2001-2005]?'" (The answers were given in descending order of support.)

#16. China will construct (from scratch or based on an imported platform) its first aircraft carrier: 23.2 percent supported.

During almost all of 2001, Varyag, together with its towing vessels, was "making the rounds" over the Black Sea, without getting Turkish permission to pass the Bosporus Strait. Finally, in January 2002, the huge vessel entered the Mediterranean Sea and started the long way to Dalian.

Aircraft Carrier, Not an Entertainment Vessel

At the end of August 2002, one of Moscow's opposition papers published a lengthy report from Nikolayev Shipyard. This included an interview with Ivan Vinnik, the construction chief of Varyag.

"Ivan Vinnik laid 4,000 km of cables in Varyag. He built 2,500 rooms under its major deck. Varyag alone, if finished and put into service, would be capable of controlling [balancing] the entire navy of Turkey.

"Now, having been sold cheaply to China, this ship will [establish] control over Taiwan. Varyag was finished for 60 percent, so it could deploy SU-series fighters for Black Sea operations. Soon, after a small upgrade, Varyag will enter [combat service in] the Yellow Sea."

Almost simultaneously, on Aug.23-24, the media of Taiwan and Hong Kong, and U.S.-based Chinese language papers published reports of the following kind:

It becomes more and more evident that the unfinished aircraft carrier Varyag won't be transformed – as it was initially supposed – into the world's largest casino and restaurant complex, but, to the contrary, will be re-equipped into PLA's first aircraft carrier.

Earlier, some Western experts, including those from Western embassies in Beijing, supposed that Varyag would be dissected, researched in detail by Chinese specialists and used for construction of the first PLA aircraft carrier "from scratch." Now it appears that Varyag will be used not as a "model" but as a platform to construct the carrier.

According to data obtained by U.S. spy satellites, Varyag, beginning from its arrival in Dalyan on May 14, has been visited by multiple high-ranking PLA officers, and no work aimed at transforming this vehicle into a commercial enterprise is taking place [so this project has been abandoned].

Some U.S. military experts consider that, in the case of conflict around Taiwan, the PLA will concentrate major strikes on the U.S. Navy, and Varyag could become "PLA's trump card" here. If China decided to build its first aircraft carrier "from scratch," it wouldn't be ready until 2010 [and PLA wants to get the carrier much earlier].

Finally, it became known, in the beginning of September, that China is engaged in talks with Russia about purchasing MiG-29M-E and MiG-29M-D fighters, the best modifications among MiG-29 series fighters. The reason is that these fighters have VTOL capabilities and can be deployed from an aircraft carrier. Some kinds of SU-30 series fighters also have this feature.

MiG-29M fighters could be based on the Chinese aircraft carrier [carriers] under construction now or – after repair and upgrading – on some old carriers earlier purchased by China in Russia [and Ukraine]. The MiG-29M-E and M-D models' maximum range is equal to 2,900 km and 3,500 km, respectively. They could carry missiles and bombs of total weight up to 4,000 kg. (end of reports)

Conclusions

Dalian Shipyard, the head enterprise of China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Group Corp., is indeed one of the largest and most advanced shipyards in China. Particularly, it is engaged in construction of civilian and naval vessels with the maximum, for China, deadweight, namely:

• Oil tankers of 300,000 tons deadweight; the first such tanker was finished at the end of 2001 and was transferred to an Iranian customer.

• Missile destroyers of Luhai and "improved Luhai" class, with 7,000- to 8,000-ton deadweight; another such destroyer reportedly was transferred to the PLA in July.

Taking into account all the data given above, it is possible to estimate the "Varyag as platform for PLA aircraft carrier" project probability now as 85 percent to 90 percent.

Of course, even Dalian Shipyard will have a problem making the huge engines for Varyag. However, this enterprise would easily invite hundreds of naval shipbuilding specialists from Ukrainian Nikolayev and Sevastopol cities, from Russian Petersburg, Severodvinsk and Khabarovsk, so there would be no problem after all.

It is supposed that the two Sovremenny destroyers and eight Kilo submarines newly ordered from Russia would enter PLA service at the beginning of 2006. Very probably, the upgraded Varyag will start its new service at the same time as the "core" of the newly created PLA aircraft carrier group. What will happen in 2006?

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

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Editor's note:
Find out the complete details of China's Military Buildup in "Bitter Legacy: NewsMax Reveals the Untold Story of the Clinton-Gore Years"