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Thursday, Aug. 1, 2002

"I do not regard his as a massive force. But I think that it is incredibly dangerous to be dismissive of Iraq's capabilities," Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

'Body Bags'

"It is easy to send people home unharmed. It is far harder to send them home in body bags because we do not have enough force to engage Saddam Hussein properly. That would be a disaster," Cordesman said.

The grim remarks came during the first of two days of hearings to consider the appropriate U.S. policy against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and determine if he poses an immediate threat to American interests.

President Bush has labeled Iraq part of the "axis of evil" that includes Iran and North Korea. These countries, the White House says, could supply weapons of mass destruction to terrorists.

Bush has called for the eventual ouster of Hussein and demanded that Iraq permit U.N. arms inspectors back into the country.

Amid numerous news reports quoting unidentified "sources" claiming there are plans to invade Iraq, congressional leaders said Wednesday that it was vital to bring the discussion of war into public view.

'Informed Consent'

"The decision to go to war can never be taken lightly. I believe that a foreign policy, especially one that involves the use of force, cannot be sustained in America without the informed consent of the American people," said Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., chairman of the committee.

Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., however, scoffed that it would be foolish for the U.S. to give Hussein the advantage of airing details of any plans to attack him, Fox News Channel reported Wednesday night.

The senators spent more than three hours questioning a panel of three experts on Iraqi military capability. The primary concern, they said, was to determine if the threat posed by Hussein was sufficient to justify a pre-emptive strike against Iraq, which would be the first such attack in recent American history.

All Agree: Better Now Than Later

The experts differed on the exact composition of the Iraqi nuclear, chemical, and biological arsenal, and none said they believed Hussein had developed a nuclear bomb. But all agreed that it would be better to act now than wait until he got stronger.

Ambassador Richard Butler, the former chief of U.N. weapons inspections in Iraq, stressed the shortcomings of the U.S. policy of containment. He said that, because of a lack of enforcement, weapons of mass destruction continue to exist in Iraq, and that more weapons technology continues to flow in, largely through Syria.

"It is essential to recognize that the claim made by Saddam's representatives, that Iraq has no weapons of mass destruction, is false. Everyone concerned, from Iraq's neighbors, to the U.N. Security Council and Secretary General of the U.N., is being lied to," he said.

Details of Bioweapons

Butler said despite years of attempted international weapons inspection, Iraq still has an array of biological weapons and missiles tipped with anthrax. It also retains some chemical weapon technology from before the Gulf War. A lack of fissionable material, said Butler, is the only thing that keeps Iraq from developing a bomb.

"We do not know and never have known fully the quantity and quality of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. Its policies of concealment ensured this. We do know that it has had such weapons, has used them, and remains at work on them," he said.

Khidir Hamza, a former chief scientist in Iraq's nuclear program, stressed that "regime change" would be the only real way to reduce the threat from Iraq. Before his 1994 defection, Hamza cited a German intelligence report stating that Iraq had more than one ton of slightly enriched uranium - enough to generate enough bomb-grade uranium for three nuclear weapons by 2005.

But Cordesman, the most cautious of the speakers, stressed that intelligence reports available to the public are notoriously false. And with the Iraqi dictator's skill at concealing weapons, it will likely never be possible to know exactly what Hussein has and if and when he is willing to use it.

'Our First Pre-emptive War'

"We have to be prepared for the fact that if we do this, it will in many ways be our first pre-emptive war. We will not have a clear smoking gun. There will not be a central cause," he said.

Cordesman stressed throughout his remarks that quick, surgical strikes against the Iraqi leader would be extremely dangerous. Cornered, Hussein would be most likely to use whatever weapons of mass destruction he has accumulated.

He said that he believed the U.S. needed a major military expeditionary force of the type it used to drive Iraq out of Kuwait in 1991.

At that time, the U.S. led a coalition of nations including France, England, Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which fielded 500,000 troops. This time around, Cordesman warned, some of that support would not be available.

Some 'Allies'

"I think we will have the support of our British government. Most of our NATO allies will at best be reluctant, and will seek, if anything, to delay [the strike] through use of the U.N.," he said.

Cordesman also stressed the importance of regional allies if the attack is to proceed successfully. He singled out the need for Turkish air bases and the use of Saudi Arabian airspace, as well as cooperation from Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

Support for Terrorists

The senators asked if Hussein might provide weapons of mass destruction to terrorists, who would use them against the U.S. mainland. The experts said that though Hussein supported terrorists, there was little, if any, evidence, that such weapons transfers had taken place.

As the senators sought to determine if the level of threat could justify an immediate U.S. invasion, Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., asked the panel members if they felt that the American mainland was immediately at risk.

The panelists agreed that Hussein still lacked the capability to strike America. But Cordesman warned, "There's this to keep in mind: Things are going to get worse, not better."

Copyright 2002 by United Press International.

All rights reserved.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
Bioterrorism
Bush Administration
Middle East
Saddam Hussein/Iraq
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