Col. Stanislav Lunev
Wednesday, July 24, 2002

According to official Russian statistics, the population of Russia dropped from 148 million in 1992 to 145 million in 2000 and continues to decline. Were it not for the return of ethnic Russians from other former Soviet republics, Russian population losses would be even greater. This trend projects a Russian population of less than 100 million by 2050.

Deaths of working-age males, now double what they were in the 1960s, have contributed most to declining life expectancy, which is now below that of Guatemala, Iraq, Morocco and the Philippines. Even more astounding is that Russian male life expectancy is now 13 years lower than that of Russian females, whose life expectancy is eight years below that of American women.

Russian women do not want to give birth to children because they do not see any bright future for them in present-day Russia, whose leaders are taking this country back to its so-called "glorious totalitarian past."

Also, there is an even more alarming development threatening Russia's demographic future: Drugs, especially cocaine, are being used by more and more Russians each year.

As Moscow admitted recently, Russia has become the world's newest center for drug trafficking and the international drug syndicates, and at present close to 3 million Russians use drugs regularly. In large cities this data is much more frightening. In Kaliningrad, for example, close to 30 percent of the population of this city of 2 million Russians are drug addicts.

According to Interpol estimates, Russia is becoming a major market for Colombian drug cartels, whose traffickers have been able to secure total control of the market. No fewer than 40 tons of Colombian cocaine are shipped annually to ports in the former Soviet Union, and only 5 percent of this drug is discovered by authorities.

Narco-trafficking profits, divided between the Colombian drug lords and Russian crime syndicates, have been estimated at $600 million annually.

Another major reason for rising Russian mortality is alcohol consumption and binge drinking. An anti-alcohol campaign, orchestrated in the mid-1980s, was carried out badly, and its attempt to curb alcohol use was exceedingly unpopular until two phenomena occurred: Alcohol consumption and mortality soared hand-in-hand.

During this campaign, local alcohol (primarily vodka) production was reduced and prices were raised. An increase in natural wine production promoted by the state failed, and vineyards with hundreds of years of tradition behind them were destroyed and have not been restored.

The Russian media blamed these disasters on a failed and still-declining Russian health care system, if it can even be called a system. Funding has declined since the 1960s, and in the mid-1990s Russia was spending 4 cents per capita for every dollar that the U.S. was spending on health care. Russian doctors currently earn less than bus drivers.

There is no doubt that this is a disaster for a country with an aging population and a decline in working-age people. Of course this is Russia's domestic problem, and the Russians could solve it themselves if they had the desire and opportunity to do so.

This problem, however, has very important international consequences.

The dramatic decline in Russia's male population is a cause of serious concern for Western military experts, who believe that in the near future Russia's military will not have enough manpower, and demographic trends will mean a serious drop in military personnel.

These circumstances could undoubtedly force Moscow to rely on weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, for implementation of their goals and strategic intentions. In this case Russia's problems would no longer be exclusively a domestic concern.

Col. Stanislav Lunev is the highest-ranking Soviet military intelligence officer ever to defect from Russia. Read his gripping story, Through the Eyes of the Enemy.

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