Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda
Friday, June 7, 2002

At the beginning of April 1997, then-Defense Minister of Russia Col.-Gen. Igor Rodionov went for a weeklong visit to China. He met the top brass of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) at the Chinese Defense Ministry, visited several PLA bases and camps in Northern and Northeast China, and had at least two lengthy conversations with Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

Two weeks later, Jiang Zemin went to a summit in Moscow. And it appeared that the visit of Gen. Rodionov to China was, in reality, devoted to preparations for several large-scale weapons supply contracts aimed at modernizing the PLA Air Force, navy and air-defense troops and jointly totaling several billion dollars. Signing contracts in Moscow opened a new stage both in Sino-Russian military-technological cooperation and PLA modernization.

A similar case: In October 1998, Russian Defense Minister Marshal Igor Sergeev visited Beijing. This became a prelude to the visit of Jiang Zemin, in November 1998, to Moscow and Novosibirsk, and the conclusion of new large military-technology transfer agreements.

From mid-1999 to mid-2001, each of several visits of Chinese Defense Minister Chi Haotian and First Deputy Chairman of Central Military Commission Zhang Wannian to Russia inevitably resulted within a month or two in new contracts of several dozen SU-30 ground fighters, new battalions of S-300 and Tor-M1 air-defense systems, additional submarines and destroyers, etc. for delivery to China.

That's why the visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to Beijing on May 31-June 2, 2002, just a week before a new Jiang-Putin summit in St. Petersburg, cannot be underestimated.

Official Report

According to Russia's ITAR-TASS News Agency, on May 31, Defense Minster Sergei Ivanov arrived in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders on bilateral relations in the political and military fields. Ivanov said he would brief China's leaders on the Russia-U.S. summit and the NATO cooperation document.

Ivanov planned to see President Jiang and Prime Minister Zhu Rongji to discuss strategic cooperation, international and regional security, cooperation in the struggle against international terrorism, separatism, religious extremism, organized crime and weapons non-proliferation.

Their talks were supposed to focus on worsening relations between India and Pakistan and the situation in Afghanistan. Ivanov also intended to meet China's Defense Minister Chi Haotian.

On the same day, the Moscow-based Agentstvo Voyennykh Novostey (Military News Agency) provided more specific information:

Sergei Ivanov is in Beijing for talks concentrating on the outlook for defense cooperation and arms trade between Russia and China. Ivanov's visit started on May 31 with a meeting with President Jiang Zemin. At the closed-door meeting Ivanov is expected to brief the Chinese leader on the Russian-U.S. summit in Moscow, the understandings on strategic stability reached there and new relationships with NATO. Ivanov is to meet with Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji the same day in the afternoon. A session of the Russian-Chinese mixed commission on military-technical cooperation is scheduled for June 1. Ivanov has recently become co-chairman of this commission on behalf of Russia. Also on June 1, Ivanov will negotiate with his Chinese counterpart Chi Haotian

1) The Russian Defense Minister's visit to Beijing seeks to reassure Chinese leaders that military and political collaboration between Moscow and Washington will not harm Russian-Chinese relations.

Immediately on his arrival in Beijing, Sergey Ivanov made it absolutely clear that Russia is ready to continue its friendship with China. "We have very close ties, and not only in the military sphere but in the economic and trade spheres, too. As far as military cooperation is concerned, I am visiting China in two capacities here: that of a co-chairman of the Russian-Chinese commission for military and technical cooperation and that of the Defense Minister. I will have a lot of meetings."

2) Although all information is secret and classified, it is known that China's share in the export of Russian arms stands at 40 percent at present and will be maintained at this level in the foreseeable future.

Still, the main topic of Ivanov's talks in China is not arms sales, but also an "explanation" of the military and political ties between Russia and NATO and the U.S. Sergey Ivanov is trying to persuade Chinese leader Jiang that despite Russia's agreements with the U.S. and NATO, Moscow will always support China's right to claim Taiwan.

Issues of strategic stability are in the same league. It is known for certain that both China and Russia are maintaining their previous (negative) attitude toward Washington's withdrawal from the ABM Treaty.

Comments from the Chinese, particularly the report of the Beijing-based China News Agency on May 31, are valuable.

To sum up:

Jiang Zemin, Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, said while meeting Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov that China is willing to make a concerted effort with Russia to further develop a bilateral strategic cooperative partnership.

Jiang Zemin emphasized that China and Russia are big influential countries in the world and are close neighbors and friends. Establishing and maintaining the Sino-Russian strategic cooperative partnership is a very wise choice for the leaders of both countries. This partnership has enjoyed smooth progress, resulting in prominent successes.

Zemin further said:

Our mutual trust in political affairs has been increasingly deepened, especially after the two countries signed the "Sino-Russian Good-Neighborly Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation" in 2001. This treaty guarantees that the peoples of the two countries will maintain their friendly relations generation after generation and will never become enemies.

Ivanov said:

The Russian government is expecting President Jiang Zemin's attendance at the meeting of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in St. Petersburg next month. Russia places importance on developing friendly cooperative relations with China and hopes to advance closer cooperation between our two countries' militaries. The development of relations between our two countries' armed forces is beneficial to the development of bilateral ties and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the meeting of Sergei Ivanov with Premier Zhu Rongji on May 31 had the same environment of close friendship (alliance).

Zhu told Ivanov that close Sino-Russian relations conform to the fundamental interest of the two nations. He said that the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation signed last year provided for an expansion of the two countries' trust and economic and trade cooperation; China is ready to promote the new all-round development of these friendly relations.

Ivanov said that Russia and China maintain good relations in all fields, and furthering the cooperation between the two countries will benefit both; Russia will make more efforts in this regard. (end of report)

Just one day was enough to smash the naïve hopes of some Western politicians who feel that U.S.-Russian rapprochement is the direct way to Chinese-Russian alienation. "The smart calf sucks from two cows," they say in Russia. Friendly advances to America and the development of an alliance with China are not contradictory, from the Kremlin's point of view.

Sino-Russian Weapons Trade Will Grow, Expand and Flourish

On May 31 (a truly significant day), Moscow-based Interfax Agency published a statement of Konstantin Makiyenko, deputy director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (the same person who used to comment on the development of Chinese-Russian military-technological cooperation, since at least spring 1997).

"Improvement of Russian diplomatic relations with the West will not affect its military and technical cooperation with China," Makiyenko said, adding that China had always been the most stable and capacious market for Russian arms and military equipment. The expert expressed his belief that China would be the leader in procuring Russian-made arms in the short and medium terms.

Makiyenko stressed that the PLA was procuring cutting-edge (Russian) arms and assets for all the service branches with the exception of the ground forces. He listed the following major items of the Sino-Russian weapons trade (additional information from the article of Svetlana Babayeva and Dmitriy Safonov – "We Do Not Want to Arm the Chinese," published in Izvestiya on May 31 – is given in parentheses):

1. More than 100 SU-27SK, SU-27UKB and SU-30MKK fighters had been procured by the Chinese side by 2001 (volume of deliveries of Su-27 and Su-30 aircraft to China is estimated at $5.8 billion); this number does not include aircraft kits bought to assemble fighters in China itself.

2. Two destroyers of Project 956E (Sovremennyy-class) and four diesel submarines of Projects 877EKM and 636 were procured by the Chinese side. The Chinese navy has placed an order for two more destroyers of Project 956EM, boasting more powerful fire assets than their predecessors.

   China would also buy eight Russian-made Kilo-type submarines of fitted with "super-advanced" Klub-S missiles. (On May 3, 2002, Rosoboroneksport, the Russian state-owned weapons export monopoly, concluded a contract for delivery to the Chinese navy of eight Kilo diesel submarines equipped with the Klub missile system (that is another $1.5 billion).

3. Air defense assets bought by Beijing include 27 Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems and some eight battalions of S-300PMU and S-300PMU1 missiles. According to unofficial information, some additional contracts for S-300PMU and, possibly, the most advanced S-300PMU2 Favorit anti-aircraft missile systems were signed with the Chinese side recently.

4. The total value of unfulfilled contracts on the listed items (even without the eight Kilo submarines) amounts to $4 billion. In addition to this, Russian experts are engaged in developing separate units and subsystems that are to be mounted on assets developed in China. In particular, deliveries of radars and engines for J-10 and J-8-IIM fighters are under way.

5. Russia can satisfy requests of the Chinese side to be provided access to more sophisticated assets such as Kursk-type multifunctional nuclear submarines of Project 949A and Shchuka-B-type submarines of Project 9712, as well as TU-22M3 Backfire long-range bombers, MIG-31 Foxhound interceptors, heavy aircraft carriers, missile cruisers, etc.

   (In the future, China is interested in jointly developing arms systems and military equipment and also in acquiring licenses for independent production. For instance, it hopes to receive a license for the production of the Mi-28 helicopter or at least its components, radio-electronic stations, and individual elements of guided aviation weapons, and also aircraft engines.) (end of Makiyenko statement and "Izvestiya" article)

Without doubt, Sergei Ivanov's visit will have unpleasant consequences for us.

New data about this visit, as well as the Petersburg summit, will be forthcoming.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

You may contact Dr. Torda at ThomasJTorda@cs.com.

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