Dick Morris
Monday, June 17, 2002

I predict that this decade Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party nominee for president. While she may run in 2004, the likelihood is that she will make her bid in 2008.

Hillary begins with several playing field advantages. First, she enters the Democratic primaries with the solid support of blacks and feminists and strong backing from Hispanics and liberals.

In the Democratic Party, it is difficult to miss with that combination.

Another advantage she'll have is that in 2008 there will be a Republican primary at the same time as the Democratic contests.

With Bush likely to be re-elected in 2004, 2008 will see strong contests for the nominations in both parties. Why should this matter?

Because it means that the Independent voters will be divided between the two party primaries, just as they were in 2000.

If neither Bradley nor McCain had run and the Independents could have concentrated in either party's primary, neither Gore nor Bush would have been nominated. It was only because the Independent vote was divided that the favorite of the party's orthodox wing won in each case.

In 2008, they will be divided again, giving Hillary a strong edge.

And the general election?

Don't count her out. Most presidents run out of gas in their second terms. Count 'em – none have succeeded since Teddy Roosevelt.

Woodrow Wilson? The League of Nations dragged him down.

FDR? Court packing cost him any power he held over Congress in his second term, he couldn't get anything passed.

Truman? Korea made him impotent politically.

Eisenhower? Two recessions drained him of power and led to a huge off-year Democratic win in 1958.

LBJ? Vietnam.

Nixon? Watergate.

Reagan? Iran-Contra. He lost the Senate in 1988.

Clinton? Impeachment.

History shows that second terms just don't work.

By Bush's second term, the war on terror will be running on fumes as the U.S. will have ousted Saddam, conquered al-Qaeda and, for the moment, neutralized the domestic threat.

Bush doesn't really have a domestic agenda other than his tax cuts. So look for Bush to run out of momentum as 2008 nears.

All of these factors favor Hillary for a 2008 presidential run. At that time she will present an activist, if liberal, alternative – one that will be welcomed by the Democratic Party.

Read first article in series: Bush Stands on Principle.

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