Phil Brennan, NewsMax.com
Saturday, Oct. 19, 2002

That’s the warning being sounded by University of Haifa's professor Arnon Sofer. He says there is now a demographic balance in the number of Jews and non-Jews in the region from the Jordan River to the coast and running the length of Israel from north to south.

"Today, there are 5 million Jews and 5 million non-Jews. The latter figure is composed of 4.5 million Arabs and the remainder non-Jewish immigrants, mainly from the former Soviet Union, and foreign workers," he told the Jerusalem Post.

By the year 2020, he forecasts about 6.4 million Jews, based on population growth and an average 50,000 Jewish immigrants a year. He expects the Arab population to reach around 8.5 million, in addition to 1 million non-Jews of other origins.

Sofer isn’t alone in his predictions. Noting that immigration has been the main source of population increases in Israel, demographic experts told Britain's Times that the Jewish population of Israel has been roughly constant at around 80 percent over the past 20 years, with the Arab population at just under 20 percent.

If immigration dries up, and it has slowed, the balance may shift with potentially dangerous consequences. During the 1990s, between 100,000 and 200,000 Jews left Russia for Israel each year. In 2001, fewer than 50,000 Jews went to Israel from the rest of the world combined.

In addition, the birth rate among Arabs is much higher than that of Israeli Jews, according to Population Resource Center. In 2000, total fertility rates (TFR) in the Gaza Strip were the highest in the world at 7.4 births a woman. The TFR in Palestine (5.9) was almost twice as high as in Israel (3.0), reflected in their respective rates of natural increase (3.7 percent annually versus 1.6 percent).

Similar trends can be seen within Israel: Jewish women have a TFR of 2.7 compared with 4.8 for Arab women.

Sofer told the Israeli Knesset foreign affairs and defense committee that by 2020, Jews will account for only 42 percent of the population in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. Alongside a Jewish population of 6.4 million, he says, there will be 3 million Arabs and non-Jews inside Israel's 1967 boundaries, plus 3.3 million Palestinians in the West Bank and 2.5 million in Gaza, he predicted.

'Our Country Is Finished'

"I am very concerned. If this is the process, and the problem is not dealt with, our country is finished in 17 years, and there will be a collapse," he said. At present, according to Ha'aretz newspaper, Jews are in a slight majority, with 50.5 percent of the population.

The birth rate among Israel’s Arabs is creating pressure on the government to take exraordinary measures. Brian Whitaker of Britain’s Guardian reports that talk of the "problem" caused by Arab population growth has been mainly confined to Israel's far right, though, according to the Egyptian newspaper, al-Ahram Weekly, a number of Israeli strategic planners, former army generals and scholars met privately in Hertzlya a few months ago to discuss "adequate solutions for dealing with the demographic threat."

Solutions being proposed, the Guardian writes, "include birth control, forced emigration [through economic pressure] and population 'transfer' - a new euphemism for what in the Balkans became known as "ethnic cleansing."

'Racism'

Isam Makhoul, an Arab member of Knesset (parliament), said: "Here, in a state that claims to be the only democracy in the Middle East, we see dignified lawmakers candidly discussing ways and means to curb the birth rate of a given segment of society on the grounds that they don't have the right race and religion. It's racism. It's disgusting."

Declines in birth rates are a worldwide phenomenon. A Rand Corp. study has reported: "Between 1950 and 1970, fertility rates in the United States dropped from 3.7 children per woman to 1.9; they have risen slightly since then to around 2.0. Fertility decreases in many other industrialized countries were even more pronounced.

"Recently, many developing countries, including Mexico, China, and India, have undergone a similar transition. Though birth rates in many parts of the developing world remain higher than in the industrial world - and populations have continued to grow - the decline in birth rates has generally been faster and steeper than that which occurred earlier in the United States.

"Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East are the only major regions of the world where average fertility rates and family sizes have not fallen dramatically."

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:

Israel

Middle East

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