Phil Brennan
Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2002

Profilers, ex-feds, local police agencies and a crew of experts of all kinds have been all over the lot trying to come up with an answer to the question: Who's the sniper? Most profilers have concentrated on the theory that the killer is a homegrown homicidal maniac. Dealing with foreign terrorists, you see, is out of their area of expertise, such as it is.

What if they're wrong? What if this is al-Qaeda in action, fulfilling Osama bin Laden's pledge to bring terror to the heart of the U.S. homeland and the American people?

By the time you read this the killer may be in custody, or even dead. He may indeed be that homegrown homicidal maniac the profilers say he is, but the possibility of this kind of terrorist attack being launched by our enemies ought to be seriously considered and, indeed, uppermost in our minds as we move further into the unfamiliar bramble patch of an international war against unseen foes.

If this is the case, it is terrorism on the cheap: The cost to al-Qaeda amounts to the price of bullets – a couple of dollars – and gasoline.

If last year's anthrax attacks were the work of terrorists, as I am convinced they were (see my series The Crucifixion of Steven Hatfill ), this was another case of bargain-basement terrorism – the cost being that of some stamps and envelopes, plus weaponized anthrax spores the terrorists probably got at no cost from Iraq's huge store of the stuff.

For that matter, the cost of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon amounted to practically nothing compared to the billions of dollars they have cost the U.S.

We've got to think about these things – certainly al-Qaeda does. And if it hasn't, it will after observing the effects of the sniper attacks, which already have cost the U.S. government and state and local police agencies millions upon millions of dollars.

Consider this: In the past couple of weeks, a sniper and perhaps a co-conspirator have held the capital of this country prisoner. As New York Post columnist Steve Dunleavy noted, "The Washington area is completely paralyzed. Schools have canceled outdoor activities – some have even papered over their windows. ... This city, this country, has not come to grips with the fact that one lone gunman, two lone gunmen, or jihad can close down the capital of this country. "

The lesson for al-Qaeda here is what a colleague of Dunleavy's told him: "10 gunman doing the same thing could close down the country."

Terrorism on the cheap.

There could well be a good reason why there aren't "10 gunman doing the same thing" at the moment. Al-Qaeda has shown that it is adept at careful planning. It is said that the 9/11 hijackers flew on the same planes they later took over on their deadly flights, observing everything that could bear on their future mission. 9/11 was meticulously planned, rehearsed and carried out.

The current sniper attacks could be the dress rehearsal for a future rash of nationwide snipings. The terrorists are not only learning what works and what doesn't work in putting their well thought-out plans into action – they are observing how the police agencies are reacting to their attacks, what steps they are taking to apprehend them.

And this is one reason why the police have tried to keep from the press and public as much as they can of their investigative techniques and information about any clues they have unearthed. If this is a training mission which aims to teach the terrorists how to outwit the police, then playing their hands close to their chests is crucial for the police.

There are lessons to be learned here. This arcane business of profiling has gotten completely out of hand. More a work of imagination than cold science, it has at times proved spectacularly wrong, as in the case of the Unabomber profile in which the subject, who looked and dressed like a skid row bum and turned out to have held high academic posts, was described by FBI profilers as likely to be a fastidious dresser who had probably held only the most menial of jobs.

There may be some validity to profiling as a law enforcement tool in some ordinary criminal cases, but it is been vastly overblown and should be taken with a very large grain of salt.

According to retired New York police detective John Baeza, profiling does little to solve homicides and has led to few arrests. Baeza told the Washington Times that statistical theories on the race, age and sex of a criminal are often groundless when little evidence exists.

Then there's the matter of the media. If the snipers are reconnoitering, checking on police reaction and investigative methods, some of the media have been their best friends, ignoring pleas from the police to respect their need to keep some evidence to themselves. What confidential information some of the media have learned they have broadcast. Thanks a lot.

Finally, there appears to be an inexplicable reluctance on the part of the federal government to describe certain acts of violence as being the possible work of foreign terrorists. This was seen in the case of TWA Flight 800, where the FBI simply ignored massive evidence in the form of almost 300 credible eyewitness reports about a missile, and resorted to using such devices as a rigged CIA graphic to prove the unlikely theory of a fuel tank explosion.

And then there is the case of the anthrax attacks, where the bureau simply turned its back on the obvious terrorist connection to pursue a home-grown lone wolf attacker because, it seems, it was the politically correct thing to do.

We continue to expect all sorts of high-tech forms of terrorism – suitcase nuclear bombs, aerosol attacks of smallpox – while al-Qaeda relies on whatever is at hand – terrorism on the cheap.

Look for it at your local discount or hardware store.

Phil Brennan is a veteran journalist who writes for NewsMax.com. He is editor & publisher of Wednesday on the Web (http://www.pvbr.com) and was Washington columnist for National Review magazine in the 1960s. He also served as a staff aide for the House Republican Policy Committee and helped handle the Washington public relations operation for the Alaska Statehood Committee which won statehood for Alaska. He is a trustee of the Lincoln Heritage Institute.

He can be reached at phil@newsmax.com

Editor's note:
Revealed: The Terrorists Living Among Us