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Thursday, Aug. 2, 2001

The review is the Pentagon's mandatory Quadrennial Review, known in military parlance as the terms of reference, and sets out senior military planners' 13 top spending requirements. The 30-page document, obtained by United Press International, has not been made public by the Pentagon and is marked "classified," though many of its sections are stamped "unclassified."

Aside from a heavy emphasis on military applications of space-based technology, the terms of reference leans heavily toward missile defense. However, budgetary limitations have some analysts doubting how far the Pentagon can go in reaching its goals.

The Pentagon attempts to spell out what amounts to a defense philosophy for the United States as the only world superpower.

While wielding the proverbial big stick, the Bush administration's optimistic goal is to persuade all the world's major powers to cooperate with the United States in a loose alliance.

"The United States is committed to expanding its network of friendships and alliances with the aim that eventually all of the world's great powers will willingly cooperate with it to safeguard freedom and preserve peace. The aim is to extend the conditions favorable to peace and the U.S. geo-strategic position far into the future," states the document.

The way to do this, the document says, is by projecting military strength and an aura of invulnerability to convince enemies of the wisdom of an old saying, "If you can't beat them, join them."

There is a commitment that the United States will not throw its weight around.

"The United States uses [its military] advantage not to dominate others, but … to dissuade new functional or geographic military competition from emerging and to manage them if they do," states the document, which is closely held at the Pentagon.

Building a new generation of bombers that transit space is high on the agenda. The Bush administration has already made clear its intention to pursue space-based lasers and missiles for missile defense operations, but this bomber represents a new direction.

The "suborbital platform" - in other words, the bombers - would be capable of "conducting unwarned land attack. Suborbital space vehicles would also be valuable for conducting rapid global strikes," states the terms of reference.

The Pentagon believes that rather than being provocative, such weapons will ensure continued peace by maintaining the United States' strategic edge over potential adversaries.

"This review is based on the premise that in combination with other instruments of national power, the foundation of a peaceful world for ourselves and for our posterity rests on the ability of the U.S. armed forces to maintain a substantial margin of national military advantage relative to others," the terms of reference states.

A version of the terms of reference circulated on June 22 said, "U.S. forces must be sized and shaped to do the following (concurrently)."

First, they must be capable of defending the United States with a strategic missile defense system and a ready response to a nuclear, biological or chemical attack on the country.

Second they must deter aggression in critical areas of the world, which the document names as Europe, Northeast Asia, the East Asian littoral and the Middle East, and Southwest Asia, and "counter coercion and deter aggression by maintaining regionally tailored forward stations and deployed forces that are capable of swiftly defeating an enemy's efforts (with minimum reinforcement.)"

In a July revision, the word "concurrently" was stripped out, according to Pentagon officials. It also deleted the minimum reinforcement requirement. Together the two directives would have required the Pentagon to dramatically enlarge the military, including carrying a fleet of 34 $5 billion aircraft carriers with nearly 80 fighter jets each, according to the independent newsletter "Inside the Pentagon." The Navy maintains a fleet of 12 such vessels.

By all accounts, enlarging the military is not where the Bush administration wants to go. It has specified the creation of a "transformed" force that is smaller, lighter, more survivable and more lethal with the power to attack any target on Earth. Doing so will require significant investment, a drain on resources that makes enlarging traditional forces unaffordable.

In fact, the White House is limited in the amount by which it can increase military spending as it is committed to retaining a massive 10-year tax cut, and it has clearly stated its priorities: advanced technologies, research and development and a strategic missile defense system.

A third requirement mentioned is to "win decisively."

"When directed by the president, decisively defeat an adversary in any one of these critical areas of the world," the terms of reference states.

Finally, "U.S. forces will be capable of conducting small-scale contingencies of limited duration in other areas of the world, preferably in concert with allies and friends." Those areas may include urban environments and "other complex terrains and varied climatic conditions."

The document outlines the case for missile defense.

"The continued proliferation of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles poses a threat to U.S. territory, forces abroad, at sea and in space, as well as allies and friends. Therefore, the United States needs to develop missile defense as a matter priority and integrate those systems with other defensive as well as offensive means to safeguard America's freedom of action, enhance deterrence by denial and mitigate effects of attack if deterrence fails," it states.

"The ability to provide missile defense in anti-access environments will be essential to assure friends and allies, protect critical areas of access (especially air and sea ports of debarkation) and defeat adversaries."

The terms of reference then calls for expanded "pre-conflict management tools."

"To mitigate the chance of war, U.S. forces must be capable of deterring conflict and managing crises in peacetime. They will achieve deterrence through a combination of their demonstrated and credible war fighting capabilities and the communication of intent of the United States as a nation to defend national interests," it states.

Another area of investment would be in small, precise bombs and new platforms - including space-vehicles - from which to launch strikes.

The QDR terms of reference also call for light, lethal and quickly deployed land forces that can go deep into enemy territory without being detected. The Army has been working on such a battle concept for two years and has developed a family of medium-weight armored vehicles to take the place of tanks and personnel carriers.

Unmanned aerial vehicles and robotic platforms for reconnaissance and for combat will also receive attention and funding in the QDR, according to the document.

The terms of reference also emphasizes the need for new kinds of mobility - troop transportation - platforms, especially in places where chemical and nuclear weapons and missiles are being used.

"Future investments should address the need for mobility assets capable of penetrating and sustaining operations in anti-access environments," it states. "They should be less dependent on traditional air and sea points of debarkation, host nation support and traditional reception infrastructure. U.S. forces must improve their ability to project power to and from multiple, dispersed locations in the face of area denial threats."

The document also calls for developing weapons that can attack deep underground nuclear facilities and missile launchers, and to minimize the effects of a chemical, biological or nuclear release.

"U.S. forces must have the means to conducting operations after the cessation of hostilities to seize, dismantle and destroy the adversary's residual (nuclear, biological or chemical) weapons, associated delivery means and infrastructure and to begin remediation of NBC-contaminated environments."

Copyright 2001 by United Press International. All rights reserved.

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