Chinese Navy Prepares to Invade Taiwan

Chinese Navy Prepares to Invade Taiwan

Charles R. Smith
Monday, July 9, 2001

The Chinese navy is designed not to win at sea but to enable the army to take Taiwan. The navy is intended to neutralize a U.S. fleet deployed in distant waters, while supporting a PLA war on Asian soil.

"All they have to do is go 100 miles, not 10,000 miles," stated one intelligence official who asked not to be identified.

In support of the land-based strategy, the People's Liberation Army navy recently acquired two Russian-made Soveremenny Destroyers armed with nuclear-tipped SS-N-22 Sunburn cruise missiles. In addition, China has added two newly built Luhu and two Luhai destroyers, armed with C-801 cruise missiles.

However, U.S. intelligence officials all agree that the future Chinese threat will come from under the sea. In May, a PLA navy Ming-class attack submarine conducted secret underwater operations for more than a month without being detected by U.S. forces.

The Ming submarine left the port of Qingdao on the Yellow Sea, opposite South Korea, and was observed by satellite returning 31 days later. The diesel-electric Ming-class boat is equipped with anti-ship cruise missiles and can lay advanced torpedo homing mines.

Chinese Subs Threaten U.S.

More disturbing is the fact that the Ming-class subs will soon be replaced by a new generation of Chinese nuclear attack submarines designated Type 093. Chinese Type 093 atomic subs could easily prowl off the Pacific and the Atlantic coasts of the United States. Intelligence officials confirmed the first Type 093 nuclear attack submarine becomes operational in 2002.

"Looks like the [Type] 093 is an 02 operation," stated the intelligence official. "The [Type] 094 might be an 04 job."

"The 093 will be a potent attack sub," noted the Pentagon source. "Armed with LACMs [Land Attack Cruise Missiles], the 093 will also be capable of limited power projection."

The Chinese navy is also building a new class of Type 094 ballistic-missile submarines. These much larger submarines are similar to the Russian Delta-class missile boats that patrolled off the U.S. coasts during the Cold War. Each Type 094 is armed with 16 long-range DF-31 missiles, capable of showering any city inside the United States with nuclear bombs.

"They will be potent platforms when they emerge," asserted the Pentagon source.

"The 094 SSBNs will likely be designed to operate from the Yellow Sea area, which will force the PLAN to focus on the surface ships and aircraft to defend a 'Bastion' in the Soviet sense as developed by the late Admiral Sergei Gorshkov."

Chinese Navy Inc.

The Chinese military is not the only seaborne force being upgraded by Beijing. China is also seeking to dominate the commercial waves globally. China has nearly 20 percent of all export orders for new ships. By 2010, China State Shipbuilding Co., or CSSC, will triple yard output and claim more than 50 percent of global ship commercial construction orders.

Yet the Chinese navy owns and operates CSSC. There is no question that Western technical and financing assistance given to CSSC commercial yards directly improved Chinese warship production.

Since 1990, 10 of China's largest yards have acquired Western computer-aided design and manufacture software. CSSC is using Western-built "TRIBON" software to design and produce warships. Since 1990, CSSC has introduced a whole new generation of capable Chinese warships including the Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers.

CSSC reports to directly to the PLA unit known as COSTIND or the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense. It is worth noting that in 2000, COSTIND declared shipbuilding a "strategic industry."

COSTIND acquired advanced technology from Europe for the PLA navy such as French anti-aircraft systems and German engines for warships. In fact, German-designed diesel MTU-EV493 engines power all PLA navy Song-class submarines. The engines are being built and installed on the advanced Chinese submarines without license by CSSC.

Advanced U.S. Ship Technology

COSTIND intelligence operations during the 1990s also included access to advanced ship technology from the United States. According to 1995 Chinese military documents, signed by COSTIND commanding Gen. Ding Henggao, China sought to import a vast array of amphibious U.S. ship building technology.

The documents were obtained by federal court order from the U.S. Commerce Department. The PLA documents were distributed through Ding's personal contact inside the Clinton White House then-Defense Secretary William Perry.

According to the COSTIND documents, China wanted to buy a "large scale ocean air cushion vessel with side walls in sea (about 400 passengers)", a "large-scale ocean hydrofoil boat with twin-hull and surfing boat (with about 300 passengers)" and a "aerofoil boat and ram wing boat."

It is obvious that China's planned attack on Taiwan requires amphibious assault vehicles. U.S. defense analysts are alarmed because the PLA navy is now producing large numbers of amphibious carrier ships very similar to U.S Navy's LCAC air-cushion ship.

In 1998, COSTIND and CSSC engineers worked successfully with Moscow on advanced air cushion technology for the Chinese navy. COSTIND signed a $4 billion deal with Russia to produce 100 high-speed amphibious ships annually from Chinese shipyards. One such Chinese navy air-cushion landing-ship now in production is called the "Swan."

Chinese Aircraft Carrier

U.S. defense officials assert the Chinese navy resembles the 1941 German Kreigsmarine, relying on fast, heavily armed, surface raiders and attack submarines. It does not have to win to be victorious.

However, to invade Taiwan and beat the United States the Chinese navy will have to fight at sea. Will it become a true blue-water fleet?

"They have no need for a blue-water surface fleet for years," noted the intelligence official.

"The PLA could indeed build a blue water fleet, but do they want that now, and do they want it enough to spend the money," stated another defense source.

"My guess is that after Taiwan is consumed, then they will spend the money for a blue water fleet. Still, it may not resemble a U.S. fleet, but perhaps more of a late Soviet fleet, with aircraft carriers designed to support submarines as the main strike force."

Is China capable of building an aircraft carrier? Defense and intelligence analysts agree that China can build a medium-sized aircraft carrier similar to the Russian Kuznetsov. Such a carrier would be equipped with a naval version of the SU-27 Flanker strike fighters and helicopter anti-submarine units.

"There are rumors that a carrier designed by the Russkies is being built in China, but I emphasize 'rumors'," stated the intelligence official.

"Sure, they could build one, but the question is whether they have the real need for one and are ready to commit the resources necessary for the task?" asked the Pentagon source.

"For these questions the answers are unclear. But we know they have been studying the carrier, both to attack and to build, for decades. The PLAN wants carriers and their attendant escorts. But for the Taiwan war, the PLA's first priority, they do not need a carrier. Fujian Province is enough of an aircraft and missile carrier."