|
|
|||
|
|||
|
|
Major Consequences of Chinese-Russian Treaty Alexandr Nemets and Thomas TordaDuring the visit of Chinese President Jiang Zemin to Moscow this week, Jiang and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin signed a Sino-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Treaty. This treaty, with an effective period of 30 years (20 years, from other data), will have grave consequences for prospects of war and peace around Taiwan and, probably, in all of East Asia – if not the entire world. First of all, the treaty will formalize and codify the strategic axis of Beijing-Moscow, i.e., an alliance directed against the United States and its close allies. The signing of the treaty will have several important aspects: Purely Military Aspect There is enough reliable information that the treaty will contain open or hidden articles on Sino-Russian joint "resistance to aggression" against either of these two countries. This means that any attempt of the U.S. to defend Taiwan in the event of a People's Republic of China (PRC) attack on that island will be considered as aggression against the PRC, and the Russian army will come to the aid of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). Such aid could have different forms, which may be combined:
In mid-February 2001, Russian strategic forces, including ground-based ICBMs and strategic submarines, carried out a "mock attack" against U.S. troops within the framework of joint Sino-Russian military actions during the Taiwan conflict. These preparations should be regarded with extreme seriousness. Between 1998 and 2001, the military expenditures of Russia, in comparable prices, almost doubled. These funds are being used mainly to support and revive the major components of Russia's strategic potential, including space warfare. Military-Technological Aspect After signing the new Friendship and Cooperation Treaty, Russia will greatly boost its supply to the PLA of advanced conventional weaponry – fighters, attack helicopters, military transports, electronic warfare (EW) aircraft, diesel-electric submarines, destroyers equipped with advanced anti-ship missiles, air-defense missile systems of all kinds, and land-forces weapons. The same is true for the corresponding weapon-manufacturing technology. According to early data, in the first half of 2001, Russia's volume of weapon technology deliveries to China was at least two times more than in the first half of 2000. These deliveries will significantly expand in the 18 months after signing of the treaty this month. Moreover, after the treaty is signed, Russia (per agreements at the eighth Sino-Russian Military-Technological Cooperation Commission meeting in Moscow in February, with PLA Lt. Gen. Zhang Wannian as the head of the Chinese delegation) will also provide the PLA with TU-22 long-range bombers, state-of-the-art attack nuclear submarines, new-generation cruise missiles, and advanced EW and space warfare munitions. This will result in accelerated growth and qualitative upgrading of the PLA's combat potential, most of which will be focused into a "striking fist" around Taiwan. No illusions should remain here: After signing of the treaty, the entire Russian defense industry will be at the unlimited disposal of the PLA. Geopolitical Aspect On Monday, during the summit of the "Shanghai Five" countries in Shanghai, this organization absorbed the Republic of Uzbekistan and became the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – a new strategic-geopolitical bloc with many features of a military alliance. The establishment of SCO in particular means that the influence of the U.S. and its allies in Central Asia will be drastically curtailed and China's access to Central Asian oil and gas resources and other raw materials will be greatly expanded. Signing of the new treaty and codification of the Sino-Russian Axis will in effect automatically tie four Central Asian republics to this axis. The former Soviet Union (FSU) states of Belarus and Armenia, united with Russia by interstate security agreements, will also join the Sino-Russian Axis. As early as January 1997, Belarus President Lukashenko proposed creation of a Minsk-Moscow-Beijing axis. The Belarusian defense industry is equally at the disposal of the PLA. Very probably, the new strategic-military alliance could also cover Ukraine, which has been producing sophisticated weaponry, such as turbine engines, for the PLA. Outside the FSU territory, China and Russia could spread the alliance to a group of "nations of concern," including North Korea, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Cuba. These regimes, by late 2000, were transformed into "Sino-Russian clientele." Any of these countries could be used, at the moment of a Taiwan Strait conflict, to effectively distract U.S. troops. According to June reports in Russian media, Moscow considers such "distracting maneuvers" seriously enough. In May, Russia and North Korea signed a pact on Russian assistance to revive the North Korean defense industry and upgrade the North Korean army. This country could be used as a "trump card weapon" of the Sino-Russian alliance. Pakistani and Irani media state that Iran could become a new member of SCO in the near future. This could push into SCO the Republic of Turkmenistan, the last neutral Central Asian state, and simultaneously expand the influence of the Sino-Russian Axis in the Persian Gulf.
Increasing 'Conflict-Oriented Motivation' There is one more very serious aspect of the new Sino-Russian treaty: Hawks in the Chinese government and especially among the PLA brass are facing strong opposition from so-called opportunists, including President Jiang himself. These opportunists are afraid of direct military conflict with the United States. Signing of the Sino-Russian Friendship and Cooperation Treaty and its direct military, military-technological, and geopolitical consequences will strengthen the hawks and undermine the position of the opportunists in China's leadership. Russian military leaders – primarily Chief of Russian Army General Staff Kvashnin and Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Manilov (until his resignation in mid-June 2001) – have been effectively influencing First Deputy Chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC) Gen. Zhang Wannian, Defense Minister Gen. Chi Haotian, PLA Chief of General Staff Gen. Fu Quanyou and Deputy Chief Lt. Gen. Xiong Guangkai. The PLA generals, in turn, are pushing CMC Chairman Jiang directly into conflict. This Russian pressure through military channels undoubtedly will intensify after the signing of the new treaty. The same goes for pressure through diplomatic channels (Foreign Minister Ivanov, Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan) and direct influence, via the Jiang-Putin channel, the often-used Beijing-Moscow "hot line." The motivation of the Russian side in regard to a possible conflict is as follows:
Moreover, according to Moscow media, the Kremlin is impatient: The human and technological potential of Russia have been undergoing intense destruction. That destruction may be irreversible in two to three years, and Russia would then lose the remnants of its "Great Power" status. This is why Putin and his regime are looking for "geopolitical adventures" capable of improving the general situation within Russia and Russia's global status. All the above considerations lead to the conclusion that a military conflict around Taiwan, with the possibility of spreading over all of East Asia, will become much more probable by late 2001 and quite probable by late 2002. It would be advisable for the Department of Defense to consider such a prospect as a real one and make the necessary preparations. Russian media recently claimed that "the share of military expenses in the U.S. GDP is at its lowest level since the [Japanese attack on] Pearl Harbor … and claims about the overwhelming might of the U.S. military machine are inflated." At the same time, it is now necessary to prepare additional countermeasures against the Sino-Russian Axis and its actions. The most effective such measures will include:
a) Broad financial-economic sanctions against Moscow. b) "Nullifying" Russian influence on American soil – an especially important task. This means measures against the pro-Kremlin element of the U.S.-based Russian language media, because Moscow intends to establish a "fifth column" among FSU emigrants to the U.S. and Canada, and to use this fifth column as a "trump card." c) The most important direction is strengthening the influence of the U.S. and its allies, mainly Japan, in the regions of the Russian Far East and in the entire huge zone between Lake Baikal and the Pacific Ocean.
More concretely, administering to the needs of these impoverished, half-destroyed regions dealing with Chinese expansion should be placed above all else. Such intervention must involve large-scale U.S. and Japanese economic assistance to those regions – in the form of multibillion-dollar investment – in exchange for "gradual distancing" both from Moscow and Beijing. If such a U.S.-Japanese proposal is refused, a continuation of existing trends spells the final destruction and possibly Chinese occupation of these vast areas. The success of these measures – almost guaranteed, at least in Sakhalin Island and in the Sakha-Yakutia Republic – will be the most effective strike against the Sino-Russian alliance. It should be stressed that any negotiations with the Kremlin aimed at slowing down, let alone undermining, the Sino-Russian strategic-military alliance are certainly doomed to failure. This is because the rulers of Russia – desperate from the economic and political ravages of the 1990s – urgently need to foster closer ties with Beijing to resurrect Russia's badly damaged economy, especially its military-industrial complex, and to regain its former great geopolitical status.
Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
A product that might interest you: |
|
|||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
| All Rights Reserved © 2009 NewsMax.Com |