CNSNews.com
Tuesday, June 5, 2001

"There are a lot of uncertainties here," said Brookings Institution senior fellow Thomas Mann, echoing the sentiment of many political observers. "It's a little hard at this point to forecast exactly what's going to happen."

Thanks to the decision of Sen. Jim Jeffords, I-Vt., last month to leave the Republican Party and throw his support, if not his affiliation, behind a newly minted 50-49-1 Democrat plurality, the power dynamic between the White House, the House and the Senate is unquestionably different.

But one of the key undercurrents of this week's power shift is the potential for more shifting in the wake of the 2002 elections. "It seems that almost everyone in Washington is going to be walking on eggshells," said Marshall Wittmann of the Hudson Institute.

"Both the Democrats in the Senate and the Republicans in the House and the White House are going to be afraid of over-reaching, one way or the other. It's not necessarily clear who the American people will blame if things fall apart in Washington," he said.

Analysts generally agree that Democrats and Republicans will have to be mindful not to offend their political base while courting swing voters. Also, it appears some political causes will probably be sent into deep freeze, at least for a while.

'Forget About Missile Defense'

"Forget about missile defense," said Wittmann. "Social Security privatization, forget about it. There will not be drilling in Alaska."

What will the Senate take up, instead? Wholesale energy price caps in California and other Western states - something the president has so far opposed - and minimum wage legislation, according to Mann.

"Minimum wage without small-business tax relief," stressed Marshall, who also predicted "electoral reform will be on the fast track."

"We could even see legislation like the Employment Nondiscrimination Act that would extend civil rights protections to gays in employment and hiring, which has been bottled up for a long time," said Marshall.

As far as the president's plan for a national energy policy, pundits are expecting changes.

"It's quite possible one will move," said Wittmann. "However, it will have a whole lot of corporate welfare and all sorts of gizmos for conservation. I suspect there will be tax credits if you take your recycling out."

While certain elements of the Bush agenda may well be in political peril, it's not as if it will suddenly be Christmas in June for the Democrats.

"On the Democratic side, I think the risk is appearing to be nay sayers and nothing else," said Mann. "It's going to be very important that they have a positive agenda.

"The point is to be forceful in moving their agenda because they know it's broadly supported in the country but do so in a manner that's respectful of the president and seems to be open to serious cooperation," he said.

Some observers see incoming Senate "Majority" Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., as an asset.

Daschle Not an Obstructionist?!

"Fortunately they have Daschle as their leader," Mann added, "because he won't appear negative, confrontational or obstructionist. He has a very soft manner, which goes down easy with a whole range of people."

In fact, it's likely Daschle's leadership style will be more closely watched than ever before as he assumes center stage in the Senate.

Wittmann described him as a "Clark Kent figure," saying the senator "seems very mild mannered until he goes into the phone booth and becomes Super Democrat Daschle."

Political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia called Daschle the "Velvet Hammer."

"He's all smiles, a sweet guy, pleasant," said Sabato. "The camera loves him, and in the back rooms, that's when the hammer comes out."

But Sabato cautioned against making too many predictions. "If you look at predictions six months or a year ago, well over half of them were wrong. Every man a king, every woman a queen in the Senate."

According to Sabato, it's possible neither Democrats nor Republicans will be able to move their agendas intact. "There are compromises that will be made and there are things the new majority will hate that will get through," said Sabato.

The real winners, Sabato believes, are those who like gridlock. "If you are a government person who likes to get things done, then this is a nightmare for you," said Sabato. "If you are someone who enjoys the gamesmanship of politics and probably prefers to stop government from doing things ... you actually will enjoy being in the minority more."

Copyright CNSNews.com

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