Charles R. Smith
Wednesday, June 20, 2001

The Rand study, "The Military Potential of China's Commercial Technology," states: "Potential theaters of conflict between China and the United States in the future may constrain the forces and capabilities the United States is able to employ. The U.S. military, including the U.S. Air Force, must prepare for the possibility of conflict under such conditions with a Chinese military that by 2020 will be significantly more advanced than it is at present."

"Although export restrictions may limit access to some items, China is nonetheless able to take to take advantage of various new technologies that are commercially available. They can't compete with the U.S. military across the board, but if they can pick niche areas, they can make life more difficult for us."

Chinese Threat of High-Tech Pearl Harbor

According to Al Santoli, national security adviser to Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., "the Rand report underscores the 'great leap forward' of China's high-tech military modernization, that now rivals U.S. capabilities."

"It also shows the serious undermining of U.S. national security due to relaxed restrictions on export of dual-use technologies. The Chinese threat of a 'high-tech Pearl Harbor' is well within their reach," stated Santoli.

One defense source noted that the operative word in the Rand report is "caution." The source noted that the Rand Report "simply assumes too much." At places the caution is justified, while in other places the caution is not justified. The Rand report notes that technology will advance, but Chinese military weapons made in 2020 will still be based on 2010 technologies.

"There is a report out on PRC research into Quantum computers. Some recent U.S. research notes that light-based Quantum computers could be a billion times faster than current supercomputers. Could the PRC make real breakthroughs in this area that would facilitate innumerable other breakthroughs?" asked the source, who requested not to be identified.

"A more recent example is the speed with which the PRC absorbed micro-satellite tech from the British. Less than two years from the signing of the co-development contract to the launching of the Tsinghua-1 microsat. That's scary," noted the source.

Chinese Military Buildup

According to Jack Spencer, a defense analyst and fellow at the Heritage Foundation, the Chinese military is preparing itself for a future war with America.

"Of course China is narrowing the technological gap. They are in the midst of a major military buildup that is driven by the belief that the United States will be its primary future competitor," stated Spencer.

"The United States continues to rely largely on 1970's technology. Even America's most modern fighter/bomber, the F-117, was first deployed nearly 20 years ago. What's more, the United States relies solely on the aircraft carrier for power projection (unless you count the 21 B-2's). And is completely dependent on its unprotected space-based assets and growing information networks.

"This allows China to put its modernization thrust behind the few technologies that they think will undermine America's homogenous power projection and undefended space-based information networks," noted Spencer.

"So if they can come up with a way to stop the carrier and/or blind a satellite, they have effectively stopped the American military, at least as it stands today. And that is why they are investing heavily in laser technology and advanced cruise missiles.

"The good news is that this does not have to be. The United States simply needs to invest in more diversified power projection options," commented Spencer.

"While the carrier will remain the backbone of U.S. power projection, its effectiveness could be greatly enhanced if combined with long-range precision strike capabilities. This may come in the form of more B-2's or the arsenal ship or something else. More than likely, it will be some combination of new technologies and platforms."

Spencer also warned of a newly developing scenario, in which a Chinese attack on a U.S. satellite could trigger a conflict between the two nations. Chinese intelligence officials threatened to shoot down a U.S. satellite in January, stating that the U.S. reconnaissance spacecraft were a threat to Chinese sovereignty.

"The United States must acknowledge that its space assets will eventually be targeted by hostile powers and that it must develop a modern space national security policy now that combines defense of space assets with the ability to rapidly replace assets that have been compromised," warned Spencer.

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