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Thursday, March 29, 2001

"The policy in its entirety is under review … certainly the containment aspects are under review," said Gen. Tommy Franks, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East.

Franks told reporters Wednesday that he delivered a host of new options for enforcing the no-fly zone to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld Tuesday, a list that included scaling back combat missions and boosting surveillance and reconnaissance.

"The options which are available … we can either fly more, fly less or continue doing what we do now, or have more combat aircraft and less [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance], or less combat missions and more ISR. Literally we portrayed a range of options," Franks told reporters after a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee.

Franks suggested that one of the options under consideration would be stopping enforcement of the no-fly zone, but indicated he would not support such a policy.

"My recommendation is that the no-fly zone continue in some form because I believe so long as we have a vital interest in the region, as long as we are concerned about a threat of weapons of mass destruction, it will be necessary to keep Saddam in his box," Franks said.

"In my view, maintaining the no-fly zone implies keeping some aircraft in the no-fly zones."

Franks said the Bush administration is reviewing the no-fly zone enforcement and economic sanctions against Iraq with an eye on efficacy.

"What's driving it is the fact that a new administration has an opportunity to consider the efficiency and the effectiveness of our ongoing policies," Franks told reporters. "That doesn't mean at the end of the day the policies will all be dumped in the trash."

On average, 175 to 200 aircraft enforce the southern no-fly zone on a given day, taking part in a dangerous cat-and-mouse game with Iraqi air defenses. They patrol the skies over southern Iraq and almost invariably draw fire. They then attack – sometimes the installations that targeted them, sometimes facilities on a list of appropriate aim points. This scenario has been played out over Iraq around twice a week since 1998, when Saddam Hussein began actively resisting the flights.

In nearly 10 years of enforcement of the no-fly zones, no U.S. aircraft have been hit – and it is not that the Iraqis have not been trying. U.S. aircraft have been fired upon more than 700 times, according to U.S. Central Command.

The Iraqis are getting better at it. Franks told the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that he launched a pre-emptive attack on radar sites around Baghdad in February because the Iraqis were getting exponentially better at targeting his aircraft.

The no-fly zones are not explicitly called for by the United Nations. The United States extrapolated them based on its reading of a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for the protection of Kurdish and Shiite minorities within Iraq.

The new powers in the Pentagon have publicly expressed frustration with the no-fly zones and sanctions against Iraq as half-measures doomed to failure.

Overthrow Saddam?

In 1998, Paul D. Wolfowitz, now the deputy defense secretary, criticized the Clinton administration for its unwillingness to do what it takes to unseat Saddam Hussein, which he said must be done to retain the support of the Persian Gulf countries.

"The heart of the problem is that the United States is unable or unwilling to pursue a serious policy in Iraq, one that would aim at liberating the Iraqi people from Saddam's tyrannical grasp and free Iraq's neighbors from Saddam's murderous threats. Such a policy, but only such a policy, would gain real support from our friends in the region," Wolfowitz told the House Armed Services Committee in 1998.

"I think our policy has collapsed, and it's going to continue collapsing further and see the restoration of Saddam to full power and enormous influence in the gulf unless we change course and make it clear that supporting the Iraqi people to get this man off their back is our goal," Wolfowitz said later in a 1998 television interview.

Also in 1998, Rumsfeld signed a letter to then-President Bill Clinton pressuring him to encourage a rebellion to overthrow Saddam Hussein.

"Iraq today is ripe for a broad-based insurrection. We must exploit this opportunity," stated the letter. It outlined a series of steps the government should take to help the rebellion, including positioning "U.S. ground force equipment in the region so that, as a last resort, we have the capacity to protect and assist the anti-Saddam forces in the northern and southern parts of Iraq."

That Saddam Hussein is regaining friends, trading partners and prestige cannot be disputed. Before the Gulf war he had relations with 70 countries, almost all of which were cut off during the war. By 1999, he had re-established ties with 44 countries. Today that number stands at 52, Franks said.

"And so from around the world, it is a true statement that the ability to isolate Iraq has been on a downward track, as has been, I think, accurately reported," Franks said to the committee.

Franks said the Pentagon is examining the roots of the containment policy to see if there is some way of maintaining a consensus among the gulf countries for continued sanctions on Iraq. The Iraqi population has suffered greatly under a 10-year economic embargo, which is designed to keep Saddam Hussein from getting cash to rebuild his weapons arsenal and threaten Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

"The first thing you do is look back and say, 'What are the underlying reasons for us to undertake containment?' " Franks said. "You look at the Security Council resolution in the aftermath of the Gulf War. From that rationale is being made an attempt to discuss with leaders both inside and outside the region – an effort to gain consensus – on what options are available to us to meet our objectives."

Franks said the decisions at the Pentagon were far from made.

"My personal view is the reason you haven't heard from the leadership is everything is still under consideration," Franks said.

Copyright 2001 by United Press International. All rights reserved.

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Bush Administration
Saddam Hussein / Iraq

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