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Tuesday, March 20, 2001

Lott, a leader who usually has a meticulous plan for steering bills through his chamber, said he has no idea what shape the legislation will take by the time senators have concluded two weeks of debate and amendments. Though the public's focus is on campaign finance reform, Lott's attention is riveted on tax cuts, the centerpiece of President Bush's campaign and an issue that Republicans repeatedly raised during the Clinton administration.

But Bush's $1.6 trillion tax cut proposal is also in for a rewrite, Lott said in an interview with the Chicago Tribune.

The uncertainty is a highly unusual predicament for a Senate majority leader, but Lott, R-Miss., faces a highly unusual Senate. With the chamber divided between 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats, Lott is "a king without a kingdom," said Marshall Wittmann, the conservative Hudson Institute's political scholar. The GOP maintains the majority because Vice President Dick Cheney holds the tie-breaking vote.

"In many ways, he cannot operate like a normal majority leader with a majority, for he has no majority," Wittmann said. "The reason why he does not know the fate of the legislation is because there is an ad hoc bloc of senators who determine the outcome of these pieces of legislation. It's a floating group of senators from both sides of the aisle who are politically in the center and who are difficult to pin down on any particular issue."

During the interview, Lott was philosophical about Republican losses during the 2000 election that left him grappling to assemble and keep a majority.

"The majority, however slim, is better than the minority," he said. "I've been in the minority and I've been in the majority, and let me assure you, the majority is better."

Nevertheless, Lott was relaxed and, he said, happy just minutes before the Senate began what is expected to be a two-week free-for-all on campaign finance. This is the sixth time since 1995 that Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Russ Feingold, D-Wis., have brought the campaign finance issue to the Senate floor. Each time, opponents have filibustered and killed the bill.

Another battle is expected over Bush's tax cut package, with the Senate splintered over how to proceed. And once again, Lott is feeling his way as he tries to cobble together 51 votes.

Lott admitted he does not know whether McCain will prevail in his attempt to ban unregulated, unlimited "soft money" donations to the political parties by wealthy individuals, corporations and unions.

The measure, the centerpiece of McCain's presidential campaign, would redefine the way candidates raise money and run for office. Lott and the Republican Party, however, have fought the changes for years, saying the bill would curb free speech by limiting citizens' abilities to donate money as they choose. Though McCain has brought a white-hot spotlight to the subject, the Arizona senator fears that the conflict with Lott and other Republicans will topple the bill once more.

"At the end, we'll see what we have," Lott said, referring to the long amendment process.

Later, in another briefing, Lott put the legislative battle into basketball terms: "In this case, we agreed that we'd have a jump ball. ... And hopefully it'll produce a winning result. I'm not going to try to shape it or force it."

That's not to say Lott does not have strong feelings. When McCain calls the current system "legalized bribery, legalized extortion," the majority leader bristles.

"Well, I think that's probably an inappropriate and an inaccurate statement, too," said Lott, who supports a cap on soft money rather than a ban.

"I don't think the chances of McCain-Feingold passing as is are very good," Lott added.

If it passes, but is not to his liking, Lott hopes a small legislative clause used only about 10 times in the last 10 years could stop the measure from taking effect. That clause would kill the entire bill if any court were to strike down just a small portion of the legislation as unconstitutional. The clause has not been introduced as an amendment, but Lott expects it to be.

The battle ahead over tax cuts may be even more divisive, though Lott said he wants to expedite Senate consideration of a tax cut package and increase the amount of benefits that would kick in this year. "The sooner the better," he said, hoping to finish work by the end of May and send a bill to Bush in June. The mere knowledge that a tax cut is coming, he said, could help stimulate the economy.

Over the weekend, Lott said he read Thomas Jefferson's first inaugural address, crafted after a contentious election in 1800 between Jefferson and Aaron Burr that was resolved in the House of Representatives.

"Government should not take from the mouth of labor the bread that they have earned," he quoted.

"That's what this is all about," Lott said. "We are taking too much bread from the mouths of people working and paying taxes in America, and it is having an effect on the economy. Everybody is going to be paying taxes in the next 30 days, and they aren't going to be happy."

But as it stands, Bush's plan to reduce taxes over 10 years does not command a majority. Several Republicans say it is too big. A group of 11 Democrats and Republicans say they want to tie any cuts to a reduction in the national debt. And most Democrats have complained that the plan would be a boon to the rich while barely extending a hand to everyone else.

This is the conundrum of the 107th Congress. Though Republicans have only a narrow majority in the House, their rules allow them to push through bills without getting bogged down in lengthy debates with the Democratic minority. The Senate, however, requires labor-intensive efforts to bring about consensus before anything can move forward.

"Truly anything controversial will become mired in a complex amendment mess," Wittmann said.

When it comes time to negotiate on taxes, Lott is looking first to his Republicans. The Democrats, he said, will wait until the legislative freight train is upon them before giving in.

"I think they will resist as long as they can," Lott said. "They just don't really want tax cuts."

But Lott believes the tax bill is in for a rewrite, just as he believes campaign finance legislation will be reshaped. Lott would like to cut capital gains taxes as a way to stimulate the economy. He also would like to reduce estate taxes right away, rather than phasing them out over several years.

Others would like to adjust the alternative minimum tax, designed to ensure that wealthy Americans do not use too many loopholes to evade taxes altogether. In recent years, the formula has begun forcing middle-class Americans to pay more to the government.

"I think that as we go through this, there are going to be some changes made, and I don't think the president would expect anything different," Lott said. "I think he should not begin to move or make compromises to any way weaken what he has recommended."

Lott gave no sign of anxiety. He's typically cheery, particularly now that President Bill Clinton has left and Bush has arrived.

"Every day I get up happy that I am able to be on offense with a president I agree with," he said. "We had a president last year always threatening to veto bills because he wanted more. Now, we're going to have a president that may veto bills if they spend too much. That is a fundamental change."

Still, as the Senate began debating the campaign finance measure, it was not entirely clear who was on defense and who was on offense.

McCain and Feingold began the day with a brisk walk to the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee to protest the current method of tapping wealthy individuals, corporations and unions for funds to finance elections.

"Look, we recognize we're asking incumbents to vote to change a system that keeps incumbents in office," McCain said. "And every special interest in this town that uses money in order to buy access and influence is apoplectic about the prospect of losing that influence."

But opponents said McCain and Feingold would unconstitutionally limit Americans' ability to participate in the political process. "If people think money in politics is so pernicious, they should change the First Amendment," said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who has long fought off McCain's legislative advances.

This year, McConnell does not have the votes on his side to filibuster the bill. But neither side knows what will happen in the end.

"I think it would be easier to predict who's going to win the NCAA tournament," McConnell said.

(c) 2001, Chicago Tribune.

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