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Thursday, Feb. 8, 2001

"Never in my experience has American intelligence had to deal with such a dynamic set of concerns affecting such a broad range of U.S. interests. Never have we had to deal with such a high quotient of uncertainty," Tenet said.

Tenet said his top priority was terrorism.

"Osama bin Laden and his global network of lieutenants and associates remain the most immediate and serious threat. His organization is continuing to place emphasis on developing surrogates to carry out attacks in an effort to avoid detection, blame and retaliation. As a result, it is often difficult to attribute terrorist incidents to his group, Al Qaida," Tenet said.

Moreover, Iran has stepped up its support for terrorist groups that opposed the Middle East peace talks over the last two years, and the ruling regime of Afghanistan, the Taliban, continues to harbor terrorists, Tenet said.

Iran poses not just a terrorist threat but also a conventional one, according to Tenet.

In addition to China, Russia and North Korea, Iran could threaten the United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles in the near future – in large part because of help Tehran has received from Russia and China, Tenet said. However, there is a greater and more immediate threat from short- and medium-range missiles aimed at American troops and U.S. allies, he said.

"As worrying as the ICBM threat will be, Mr. Chairman, the threat to U.S. interests and forces from short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles is here and now. The proliferation of MRBMs, driven largely, though not exclusively, by North Korean Nodong sales, is altering strategic balances in the Middle East and Asia," Tenet said.

The missiles include Iran's Shahab-3, Pakistan's Ghauri and the Indian Agni-2, Tenet said.

Making these weapons even more worrisome is the fact that Russia, China and North Korea continue to proliferate chemical, biological and nuclear technology, as well as long-range missile technology, which can dramatically increase the lethality of the missiles.

"Russian state-run defense and nuclear industries are still strapped for funds, and Moscow looks to them to acquire badly needed foreign exchange through exports," Tenet said.

Of particular concern, according to Tenet, are Russian entities' provisions of ballistic missile technology to Iran, India, China and Libya.

"Indeed, the transfer of ballistic missile technology from Russia to Iran was substantial last year and in our judgment will continue to accelerate Iranian efforts to develop new missiles and to become self-sufficient in production," he said.

Russia is using its weapons expertise as leverage against the United States' hegemony in world affairs, Tenet said.

"Moscow continues to value arms and technology sales as a major source of funds. It increasingly is using them as a tool to improve ties to its regional partners: China, India and Iran. Moscow also sees these relationships as a way to limit U.S. influence globally," Tenet said.

Tenet warned that a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan loomed as a possibility.

"I must report that relations between India and Pakistan remain volatile, making the risk of war between the two nuclear-armed adversaries unacceptably high," Tenet said. "If any issue has the potential to bring both sides to full-scale war, it is [the disputed territory in] Kashmir," he said.

India's conventional forces vastly outnumber Pakistan's, making it possible Pakistan would rely on its nuclear weapons to even the score in a battle.

"Pakistan relies heavily on its nuclear weapons for deterrence. Their deep-seated rivalry, frequent artillery exchanges in Kashmir, and short flight times for nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and aircraft all contribute to an unstable nuclear deterrence," Tenet said.

Nevertheless, Pakistan is pursuing more advanced conventional technologies, and will likely seek Chinese assistance to build its two-stage Shaheen-2 medium-range ballistic missile.

Beijing pledged not to provide assistance to "unsafeguarded" nuclear facilities in Pakistan in 1996, but Tenet does not know for sure whether that promise is being kept.

"There are contacts in some areas that are still are worrisome that we watch very, very carefully. So I'm not giving anybody a clean bill of health," he said.

China's drive to be the top regional power in East Asia is one of the United States chief diplomatic and political challenges, Tenet said.

"It is pursuing these goals through an ambitious economic reform agenda, military modernization, and a complex web of initiatives aimed at expanding China's international influence, especially relative to the United States," Tenet said.

While solid relations with Washington are important to Beijing, it is a double-edged sword for them, according to Tenet.

China's development remains heavily reliant on access to Western markets and technology, but they also view Washington as their primary obstacle because they perceive the U.S. is bent on keeping China from becoming a great power, he said.

Russia is also bent on claiming some of the status and power it lost after the breakup of the Soviet Union, Tenet said.

"There can be little doubt that President Putin wants to restore some aspects of the Soviet past status as a great power, strong central authority and a stable and predictable society, sometimes at the expense of neighboring states or the civil rights of individual Russians," said Tenet.

North Korea continues to view it ballistic missile technology as a way to drum up cash.

"Pyongyang attaches a high priority to the development and sale of ballistic missile equipment and related technology because these sales are a major source of hard currency," Tenet said.

Tracking and controlling the exchange of such dangerous technologies is increasingly difficult because of better "denial and deception" capabilities on the parts of arms holders, and the growing availability of "dual-use technologies" that have nonmilitary applications but also can contribute to weapons programs.

Despite North Korea's diplomatic efforts to reach out to the West during the last year, Pyongyang remains a major military threat to the Untied States and South Korea.

"We do not know how far Kim will go in opening the North, but I can report to you that we have not yet see a significant diminution of the threat from the North to American and South Korean interests. Pyongyang still believes that a strong military, capable of projecting power in the region, is an essential element of national power," Tenet said.

He also warned that if Kim's power slips, he is capable of swiftly reversing his course.

"The risk for Kim is that he overestimates his control of the security services and loses elite support, or if societal stresses reach a critical point, his regime and personal grip on power could be weakened. As with other authoritarian regimes, sudden radical change remains a possibility in Korea."

Iraq also continues to pose serious problems from the Untied States, especially as Saddam Hussein whittles away at the 10-year sanction regime imposed after the Gulf War to keep him from having the capital or technology to develop nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Since August, Baghdad has received more than 40 flights from abroad in violation of the U.N. embargo, Tenet said, and several countries - notably Syria - are restoring diplomatic relations with Iraq.

The continued drug trade and insurgent war in Colombia also threaten American interests. The United States has pledged $1.3 billion in aid to Colombia to combat narcotics traffickers and is providing limited military support to the operation. The main insurgent group there has said American soldiers in the combat zones would be targeted.

Continued economic and political instability in the Middle East - the latter largely inspired from the Palestinian and Israeli conflict - combined with an exploding youth population that may be unable to find work, could fracture that region further and lead to uprisings and possibly armed conflict.

Tenet did not comment on how the election of Ariel Sharon as Israeli prime minister would affect security of the region.

Copyright 2001 by United Press International. All rights reserved.

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