Col. Stanislav Lunev
Wednesday, Feb. 14, 2001

"It is still difficult to say how much it will be, but the forecast is for 140-145 million tons.” he told reporters. "Export volumes will be distributed proportionally among oil to information from the Energy Ministry, Russia exported 142.41 million tons (2.85 million bpd) of crude oil last year, including supplies from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.

Russian experts have said that an increase in oil supplies resulted initially from an increase in the output of crude oil and gas condensate. Russia currently consumes only 1.9 million bpd of crude oil; the remaining 4.6 million bpd are exported in the form of crude oil and refined products.

It is no secret that under President Putin Russia is using its oil and gas monopoly to squeeze political concessions out of reticent neighbors, sending shivers as far away as Western Europe, where the nations rely heavily on Moscow for almost half of their fuel supply. This is one reason why Western European nations with socialist governments are currently showing sympathy for Putin’s new and ambitious policy of trying to force confrontations between American and European strategic interests.

Moscow is also using its status as a massive exporter and shipper of oil and natural gas to boost its security and defense objectives in the so-called "near abroad,” or non-Russian former Soviet republics.

During the last few months, the Kremlin has repeatedly canceled or threatened to cancel contracts for the supply of fuel to those energy-dependant neighbors who defy Russian interests. Many of these former Soviet republics remain heavily dependent on Moscow for energy supplies.

This winter, in perhaps the clearest example of this strategy thus far, Moscow briefly halted natural gas exports to Georgia, whose government doesn’t unconditionally support to Russia’s war in Chechnya, and where Chechnyn rebels are being given sanctuary in northern Georgia.

Russia also wants to preserve its military bases in Georgia, which date back to Soviet times, and is strongly opposed to this former Soviet republic’s intention to develop ties with the West. The interruptions in gas supplies resulted in power cuts in the frozen Georgian capital of Tbilisi.

As NewsMax.com has previously reported, Moscow put pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan in an effort to keep strategic control in the Trans-Caucasus region and restore its military presence on Azeri territory, where it hasn’t existed since the demise of the USSR.

Moscow has also had particularly prickly relations with Ukraine over energy policy, and is using the leverage of its energy wealth to limit Kiev’s ties to the West and increase its economic dependence on Russia. Ukraine is completely dependent upon Russia for energy and owes Moscow at least $1.5 billion in gas bills.

Ukraine has failed to reform its own energy sector or to make timely payments, and has admitted stealing gas that was destined for Western European markets from Russia’s main pipeline to the West. Recently, Russia’s head military prosecutor opened a criminal case over Ukrainian manipulations with these natural gas supplies that involved top Russian military generals.

Of course, although none of this appears on the surface to be directly connected with U.S. interests, it has a direct bearing on it. According to the Energy Information Administration, by the year 2020, the U.S. will import 64 percent of its crude oil needs compared to 51 percent today. Given America’s worsening energy situation, it is crucial that the Bush administration secure new and dependable sources of energy.

Although the Caspian Sea region is not as prolific an oil source as the Persian Gulf, it contains at least 10 percent of the world’s oil reserves – an amount equal to five times all U.S. oil reserves. In perspective, Caspian Sea production is projected to reach 5 million bpd by 2005. With a possible 100 billion barrels of reserves, the Caspian Sea region could be a dependable source of oil for the West for the next four decades.

Experts believe that oil projects approved thus far in Azerbaijan alone are expected to produce more than 2 million barrels per day – roughly equivalent to what the U.S. imports from OPEC’s Arab members.

Russia, however, views the U.S.-Caspian Sea oil and gas partnership as a dual threat – the Caspian Sea region’s breakaway from Russian domination, and America’s increasing clout in Russia’s traditional zone of influence.

Russia’s continuing strong-arm tactics in the Caspian Sea region and eight years of stalemate in American policy require some specific responses from the Bush administration. For example, until now practically all oil and gas pipelines to the West from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia have gone through Russia, and Moscow is doing practically everything it can to keep control over these routes. Russia’s leaders also want the newfound Caspian Sea deposits to come to market through Russian territory, while the U.S. favors a southern route via Georgia and Turkey.

Pipelines through Russia should not be the sole option for exporters because Moscow uses transport interruptions to influence its pipeline customers. As a result of this situation it would be much better if the U.S. were to provide more support to the completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline from Turkmenistan to Turkey.

Russian experts call these southern routes for oil and gas supplies a "pipe dream” but strong support from Washington D.C. for these pipelines could help to make this dream come true and finally secure America’s future energy interests in the region.

Moscow is increasingly willing to play the energy card to reclaim its dominance in the Caucasus and Caspian region. This region’s struggling countries born in the collapse of the Soviet Union are not strong enough to stand alone against Moscow’s intentions to win the "great game” over Caspian Sea oil and gas. But with American help and assistance they can do it not only for themselves but also for the benefit of the West in general, and the U.S. in particular.

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