Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda
Monday, Dec. 17, 2001

Read Part 1.

Russia's first official statements on Iraq emerged in late November. On Nov. 28, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Saltanov emphasized Russia's strong opposition to any military action against Iraq. "There would be a high probability of radicalizing the mood in Arab countries, further complicating the crisis in the Palestinian territories, and seriously destabilizing the situation in the Persian Gulf," he said.

Saltanov, who heads the Foreign Ministry's Africa and Middle East Department, stressed that action against Iraq would threaten the unity of the U.S.-led international coalition against terrorism, of which Russia is a key member.

The same day, Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the influential USA-Canada Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin's new friendship with the U.S. could be severely shaken if Washington presses for Iraq to be next on the anti-terrorist coalition's target list.

"Putin knows that his political and military elite are watching attentively to see whether he will, or will not, subordinate Russian policy toward Iraq to its policy toward the U.S., and he knows he should not do it," Kremenyuk added.

On Dec. 2, Nikolai Kartuzov, another high-ranking Russian diplomat, stated in Cairo, after talks with leaders of the Arab League, that Russia would oppose U.S. military strikes against Iraq and that Moscow was making a great effort to prevent an attack on Iraq. He also warned that targeting Iraq would have serious repercussions in the Middle East.

And on Dec. 7, the Siberia-Urals Oil, Gas and Chemical Company (also known as SIBUR) and Gazprom Corporation announced in Moscow that they intend to participate in a project for natural gas development and use in Iraq. Gazprom is a major "coffer" and geopolitical tool of the Kremlin, and SIBUR is largely owned by Gazprom.

Under the present circumstances, this could be considered a demonstration of close Moscow-Baghdad ties and one more warning to the U.S. and its allies.

U.S.-Russian contradictions over Iraq are additionally complicated by contradictions over the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty of 1972. On Dec. 7, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov told visiting U.S. Undersecretary of State John Bolton that the U.S. move to leave the ABM treaty – which now seems certain – would be a dangerous mistake causing grave consequences to the already uneasy international situation.

The talks took place just after a new successful test of the U.S. missile defense system over the Pacific Ocean, which caused a new wave of irritation in Moscow, particularly in the Ministry of Defense.

Just days before, on Dec. 4, Russian diplomats and generals angrily responded to the latest U.S. threats to punish Moscow's ties with Tehran in nuclear-missile technologies.

Russian military, economic and diplomatic support of the North Korean regime, the major supplier of long-range missiles and other dangerous weapons to the Middle East, also complicates Washington-Moscow relations.

In short, the so-called U.S.-Russian alliance is very shaky, despite the flow of sweet phrases from both sides. Of ultimate importance is the fact that Beijing unanimously supports Moscow in its ties with Iraq, Iran and North Korea and in the ABM dispute.

In addition, the growing U.S. presence and influence in Central Asia and in the Trans-Caucasus zone is increasingly unnerving both sides. After all, the Sino-Russian alliance is a reality and only becoming stronger.

What Tools Are at Moscow's Disposal?

The economic situation in Russia is bad and steadily worsening, primarily due to the drastic contraction in world prices for oil, natural gas and metals. Almost all Russian economists, including TV commentator Khryun Morzhov, state that in 2002-2003 Russia will go though very difficult times.

During these two years, Moscow has to pay approximately $30 billion on foreign debt, and a new default is not excluded. And what about the growing epidemic of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis infections? What about the decaying infrastructure? Russia has absolutely no money to address these life-or-death problems.

In such an environment, the Kremlin must demonstrate friendship toward the U.S. and the West, the keepers of Russian debt and possible sources of new injections of funds.

So, Moscow has been nice, but for how long? Toppling Saddam's regime would mean truly great financial losses – in addition to geopolitical defeat – for Moscow. Does this mean that U.S. strikes against Iraq, combined with the aforementioned complicating factors, would very likely result in a new round of U.S.-Russian confrontation?

To be more precise, such strikes would result in a confrontation between the U.S. and its close allies, on one hand, and the Sino-Russian alliance, supported by North Korea, Cuba, Iran and some other Sino-Russian clients in the Middle East, on the other hand.

It is hard to predict, at this moment, what forms this confrontation could take.

Saddam's regime is a rotten tooth which should be ripped out – beyond any serious doubt. This must be done. At the same time, necessary preparations to check the possible actions of Beijing and Moscow also should be started.

In this context, some dangerous secret tools of Moscow must be exposed. A few weeks ago, the authors first wrote on the phenomenon of "Moscow's Fifth Column in the U.S." During the last two and a half years, the Kremlin and FSB (a KGB successor) – with the help of Putin's chief strategist, Gleb Pavlovsky – have done much to establish this fifth column.

This process, fortunately, has attracted the attention of the popular weekly newspaper Forwerts (a New York-based Russian-language edition of the Jewish weekly Forward), probably the only anti-Kremlin newspaper among the many Russian-language periodicals in the U.S.

With the permission of Vladimir Yedidovich, the founder and chief editor of Forwerts from 1995-2000, here are some excerpts. It should be stressed that Forwerts gets information from thousands of readers in the U.S. and Canada and knows precisely what's happening among Soviet-Russian immigrants here and in Canada.

Forwerts, April 6-12, 2001, article by Yedidovich: "U.S.-Russian relations are worsening. It was supposed that, in the case of Russian-American conflict, our entire immigrant population (former Soviet and Russian citizens in the USA) will unanimously support American interests. However, life has shown that some among us are eagerly serving the Moscow bozos. Some are doing this because of lack of intellect, but others are fulfilling Moscow's task to form a fifth column [in the U.S. and Canada]. … At the same time, the activity of the Russian secret services on U.S. territory has definitely increased. … This is accompanied by propaganda from the pro-Moscow part of the local Russian-language media."

A similar article, describing the activity of the Kremlin and FSB among Russian immigrants, was published in Forwerts in early June, prompting a deluge of readers' letters confirming such activity.

Forwerts, June 29-July 6, 2001, article by Yedidovich: "Moscow is focusing efforts on putting Russian-language TV channels in America under its control. This could become a major tool for subordination of Soviet-Russian immigrants in the USA to Moscow's interests."

Forwerts, Aug. 10-16, 2001, article by Semyon Itskovich: "A large group of people in Moscow and New York is engaged in establishing control over the Russian-language media in the U.S. and, consequently, over the local community of immigrants from the former Soviet Union and Russia. Evidently, Dmitry Rogozin, outspoken nationalist and Chairman of the Foreign Committee of the Russian Duma [lower house of Parliament], coordinates this work in accordance with the Kremlin's task."

A similar project is described in a Forwerts (Sept. 7-13, 2001) article claiming that Moscow subsidizes the obedient Russian-language papers in the U.S., with the eventual goal being the establishment of a pro-Moscow immigrant community.

Forwerts, Nov. 16-22, 2001, article by Leonid Shkolnik, Chief Editor: "Moscow is intensifying its pressure on the Russian-language media and Russian-language community in the U.S. The direct goal is to transform this group into a compact pro-Moscow community which will use its intellectual, financial, and other resources in far-reaching Moscow interests."

Yes, Moscow is actively working among Soviet-Russian immigrants in the U.S. and Canada – both of Jewish and of ethnic Russian origin. This effort has greatly intensified in 2001 and has definitely born fruit. In the case of the conflict between the U.S. and Russia, the Kremlin and FSB would have some "secret strings" to pull on the U.S. homeland.

Already in the present stage, this work is not limited to pure propaganda activity. Organizations and individuals directly opposing these Moscow projects have become the object of very strong pressure and even provocation. One of the authors has had a truly bitter personal experience attesting to this coercion from a foreign power.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council. He is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
China/Taiwan
Homeland/Civil Defense
Russia
Saddam Hussein/Iraq