Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda
Friday, Dec. 14, 2001

The war in Afghanistan is coming to a close – the Taliban has lost all its territory and the last few thousand Taliban and al-Qaeda soldiers are hiding in caves. The military phase of the Afghan operation could be finished by year's end, though some bad surprises – mostly from the Chinese and/or Iranian side – still cannot be excluded.

The dramatic development of events in Afghanistan, stemming mainly from the effectiveness of the U.S. forces, was a great and unpleasant surprise – if not shock – for Moscow. Even in mid-November, after the fall of Mazar-i-Sharif, nobody in Moscow expected such a collapse of the Taliban.

For example, Moscow News in mid-November published this comment by Pavel Feldengauer, one of the most authoritative Russian military observers: "The Uzbek cavalry of General [Rashid] Dostum will loot Mazar-i-Sharif and return to the mountains. … The war will continue well into 2002." Russia's military leaders evidently shared the same viewpoint.

And in early December, Moscow TV commentators had to admit: "In two months, U.S. forces in Afghanistan solved the task which the Soviet army failed to accomplish during eight years of the Afghan war (1980-88). In particular, the present weaponry of the U.S. forces is several generations ahead of Soviet weapons of the 1980s."

However, the big question is as follows: What is the next major step for the U.S. government? According to many sources, the U.S. will continue the global anti-terrorist war by attacking the networks of al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in Yemen, Somalia and Sudan. The extermination of these networks could take a month or two, with no special problems foreseen.

So, what is the REAL MAJOR NEXT STEP in the global eradication of terrorism, and more specifically, what about Iraq? Can one leave Saddam in Baghdad? The authors – supported by a strong majority of U.S. citizens in a recent poll – say absolutely not.

This is because

(a) Iraq has close ties with al-Qaeda; moreover, Iraqi secret services had contact with the suicide groups that carried out the 9/11 attacks. Baghdad evidently shares with al-Qaeda the direct responsibility for these strikes.

(b) Iraq directly supports Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations. Wounded Hamas fighters enjoy medical treatment in Iraq, and financial and weaponry links between Hamas and Baghdad seems likely. Without Iraqi support, the bloody Intifada, which has resulted in some 1,000 deaths between September 2000 and December 2001, would lose half its steam.

(c) According to available data, Iraq has not abandoned its efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMD), including nuclear weapons, chemical and biological weapons, and long-range missiles for their delivery. And agents of international control organizations have been barred from entering Iraq since 1998.

In short, Iraq is now the most outstanding, outspoken and truly dangerous enemy of the U.S. and the West in all the Middle East. The U.S. administration is developing plans for military attacks on Iraq to topple Saddam's regime, according to newspaper reports from Britain, but the final decision on these attacks has not yet been made. U.S. public opinion almost unanimously supports such a decision, but the Bush administration must deal with the following obstacles:

a) Lack of enthusiasm among NATO allies;
b) The largely negative position of the Arab countries;
c) The adamantly negative position of Russia and China. This last obstacle is the most serious and even dangerous factor that Washington must consider.

In mid-1997, Moscow and Beijing reached basic agreement on joint support of Iraq, including economic aspects (large-scale purchases of Iraqi oil, development of Iraqi oil resources based on pacts with Baghdad after sanctions are lifted, restoration of major Iraqi economic facilities), diplomatic aspects (pro-Iraq policies in the U.N. and other international organizations), and, probably, military aspects.

This agreement was strengthened in 1998-2000, in parallel with the forging of Chinese-Russian strategic-military alliance and the growth of hostilities between Beijing and Moscow, on the one hand, and America and the West, on the other.

One example among many: On April 14-16, 2000 – just three weeks after Vladimir Putin was elected president of Russia – Iraqi Defense Minister Lt.-Gen. Sultan Ahmed met in secret in Moscow with then-Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev. The two sides discussed the military situation in the Persian Gulf, as well as military and defense-technology cooperation, and scheduled an exchange of military delegations.

Remarkably, Lt.-Gen. Ahmed traveled to Moscow from Belgrade, where he held talks with the notorious Slobodan Milosevich, leading to the forging of a "united front" against the U.S. and NATO.

At that same time, in mid-April 2000, Putin traveled to London for friendly talks with Prime Minister Tony Blair. Moscow media pithily commented on both events as Putin's "friendship with Blair, with Saddam in mind."

Between April 2000 and December 2001, ties between Moscow and Baghdad became even closer (as did ties between Beijing and Baghdad). Specifically:

The Russian government and some leading Russian oil companies (e.g., Lukoil) are reaping billions of dollars in annual income from legal business with Iran, including purchases of cheap Iraqi oil (under the "Oil for Food" program) and sale of various humanitarian goods. They are also raking in hundreds of millions of dollars from illegal business with Iraq, including the supply of weaponry and related technology via Belarus and other middlemen and underground channels (thus leaving Moscow's hands formally clean).

The Russian side intends to multiply both its legal and illegal incomes after the present international sanctions against Iraq are lifted. Oil purchases would greatly increase, Lukoil and Gazprom would invest huge sums into development of Iraqi oil and gas resources, and other Russian companies would gear up for local engineering projects.

Iraq would repay Moscow $8 billion for weaponry received up to 1990, and at the same time, new channels for legal and illegal arms trade would become available.

Finally, would Moscow allow the "destruction" of Iraq? Will Moscow accept the loss of its best Middle East ally (after Iran)? Of course not. Moreover, in the likely case of U.S. and Western strikes against Baghdad, Moscow will show its real face – the ugly one.

2. Moscow Shows Its Teeth

Let's look at Moscow media publications from October-November 2001. No need to cite Pravda and other newspapers of leftist and strong nationalist orientation. They are crying out about "American aggression," the "suffering of the innocent Afghan people," "U.S. plans to conquer the entire world," etc. However, this media sector is on the political periphery and of limited influence.

More serious media, such as Nezavisimaya gazeta – generally pro-government, though with some exceptions – has expressed disappointment over the events in Afghanistan: "U.S. gains are too great, and Russian profits are too small, if any; moreover, Russia has lost a significant part of its influence and control in Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus zone to the U.S. and its NATO allies."

Almost the entire Moscow media – both the leftist-nationalist and the moderate sectors reflecting the position of the Kremlin – are fiercely against any continuation of the U.S.-led anti-terrorist campaign and its spread outside Afghanistan.

"Indonesia could become the new object of U.S. retaliatory strikes," warned Nezavisimaya gazeta in mid-October. And Indonesia, in contrast to Iraq, is of no special interest to Moscow.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council. He is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

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