Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda
Friday, Nov. 9, 2001

This is probably the worst loss America suffered in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 strikes, and even the terrorists could not have dreamed of such a success: The nation is blind and totally unprepared for a new, much more terrible strike.

The new official foreign policy concept – "now America has no enemies except for terrorists" – is dead wrong. In particular, the PLA in September-November continued its rapid march toward modernization. The U.S. is still considered in Beijing to be the "major future enemy."

And who is the major supplier of advanced military technology to the PLA? Russia, of course.

On Sept. 12, Beijing newspapers published short reports on the terrorist strikes in New York and Washington. Most of these papers, such as Jingji Ribao, or Economic Daily, published on the same page – alongside the reports from America – much more detailed descriptions of new agreements concluded during the visit of Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji to Russia on Sept. 7-11.

Some items of these agreements deserve special attention:

• By 2005, China and Russia will put into service the 2500-km oil pipeline connecting the Eastern Siberian city of Angarsk, the eastern-most terminal of Russia's oil pipeline network, with China's northeastern city of Daqing, Heilongjiang Province, the northern-most terminal of China's oil pipeline network. As a result, tens of millions of tons of Russian oil from the huge Western Siberian deposits will flow into China.

• Simultaneously, construction work on a high-capacity natural gas pipeline connecting China and Russia (with a route approximately the same as that of the oil pipeline) will intensify.

• Sino-Russian trade volume will rise significantly during 2001-2002. In particular, in 2001 it could rise about 30% from its 2000 level and surpass $10 billion, while Chinese imports from Russia would increase about 40%, to more than $7.5 billion.

• China is purchasing five TU-204-120 large passenger aircraft from Russia and will ramp up technological cooperation with Russia in this area.

• China will increase the percentage of high-level machinery and high-tech products in its imports from Russia.

• China and Russia will expand cooperation in nuclear energy technology.

• China and Russia will greatly expand cooperation in the space area, including satellite development, satellite application technology, space science and technology (S&T), and development of basic modules for satellites and space launch vehicles (SLVs).

• China and Russia will step up cooperation in the aviation industry; Russia will provide China with next-generation aircraft technology.

• China and Russia are considering the ABM Treaty concluded by the U.S. and USSR in 1972 as one the basic pillars of international stability; both countries are against the deployment of a U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) system.

• Both countries will expand multilateral cooperation within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO), including China, Russia and four Central Asian republics.

• The Sino-Russian Alliance, formalized and codified in the 30-year "Chinese-Russian Good Neighborly Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation," signed during the visit of Chinese President Jiang Zemin to Moscow in July 2001, has been further buttressed by the pipelines connecting China and Russia.

  The laying of such pipelines will provide a solid foundation for large-scale bilateral cooperation for decades to come. Also, by late September China received permission to explore and develop oil and gas over most of Eastern Siberia and the huge Yakut Republic of the Russian Far East. This further solidified the cooperation and alliance between the two nations.

• Chinese imports of arms and related technology from Russia in 2001 will rise 50 percent to 60 percent from their 2000 level and will expand at about the same rate in 2002.

• In 2001-2002 China, aided by Russia, will dramatically boost development and production of advanced satellites, SLVs and related technology – for civilian and especially for military needs.

• The same holds true for the most advanced fighters, AWACS aircraft, military transports, and other modern technology for the PLA air force. PLA ground forces and the navy will also get their share of the new weaponry from Russia.

The publishing of the two aforementioned reports side by side on the same page is symbolic: Under the new world situation, China will increase economic and military-strategic cooperation with Russia, and the arms component could be the weightiest one in this relationship.

Some questions should be answered here.

1. Won't China have trouble financing these huge arms import deals?

By late September, foreign currency reserves in China's Ministry of Finance reached $195 billion; in addition, foreign currency deposits in state-owned banks approached $140 billion. And China's foreign debt obligations are comparatively low.

Moreover, the consequences of the Sept. 11 strikes have brought China a real windfall: Chinese economists, including those of the People's Bank of China, expect that many billions of dollars – "scared money" from U.S. financial markets – will rush into China now.

Eventually, annual foreign investment in China could expand, under the direct impact of the Sept. 11 events, from the present $50 billion to $100 billion. Therefore, China will have no financial problems with arms imports.

At the same time, Russia will suffer serious financial difficulties: The recent world oil price drop will cause – as early as 2002 – the loss of about $20 billion for Russia ($2 billion for every $1 per barrel of oil price drop); added losses related to falling prices for natural gas, chemicals and metals are comparable. Altogether, these losses could amount to over 10 percent of Russia's GDP.

That is why Russia is ready to deliver any amount of the most advanced weaponry and related technology to literally any nation, let alone such an experienced ally and close friend as China.

2. Why is China continuing its program of intensive military modernization in a period when all countries should be uniting to counter the terrorist threat?

In the opinion of the authors, supported by the conclusions of some Washington-based experts, China's leaders will deal with the great temptation to "solve the Taiwan problem" when major elements of the best U.S. troops and weapons are engaged in the Middle East and Asia – this despite the formal condolences sent by President Jiang to President Bush after the Sept. 11 strikes and warm negotiations between the two leaders in Shanghai on Oct. 19-21.

Moreover, according to the most recent data, China's leaders – just like those in the Kremlin – are very irritated by the U.S. military presence in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. Deployment of several PLA divisions in October 2001 in Xinjiang, near the borders of Afghanistan and the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan, could become a prelude to military escalation in this area also.

3. Perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin, widely hailed now as an American ally, will hesitate to supply China with powerful munitions that could be used against America?

It would be very naοve even to consider such a possibility. It is known for certain that during the two weeks between Sept. 11 and Sept. 25, Putin telephoned Jiang several times to discuss in detail all aspects of the present situation, and evidently got Jiang's blessing for a temporary alliance with Washington.

Jiang and Putin additionally promoted their cooperation in all areas during the recent APEC summit in Shanghai.

PLA Modernization

Let's look at the most important directions of current PLA modernization, based mainly on Russian assistance.

Development continued at a very high rate in September-October 2001 in the following areas:

(1) Developing space warfare, which includes:

a) Development of manned spacecraft and special heavy SLVs for their launch. The manned spacecraft will fulfill several important military functions.

b) Development and launch of large- and mid-sized satellites for both civilian and military ends (reconnaissance, guidance and positioning, command and control for ground-based troops, military telecom.).

c) Development, mass production and launch of mini-satellites and even micro-satellites. These will form specialized low-earth-orbit satellite constellations or even networks, supporting military activities such as reconnaissance, missile guidance, command and control, and tracking and destroying of enemy satellites (specialized "Parasitic Star" satellites and "nano-scale" satellites are under development for this purpose).

d) Construction and upgrade of ground-based stations for satellite command and control.

Russian assistance plays a decisive role in realizing almost all the above-listed items. A critical element here is a PLA program for establishing a Space Force – along the lines of the newly established Russian Space Troops.

Just after the Sept. 11 strikes, the PLA received an order to shoot down all aircraft approaching important facilities without permission. This means that mass production and deployment of advanced air-defense weapon systems in the PLA would additionally accelerate. This trend in PLA modernization has two objectives:

a) Providing reliable air defense for critical military and infrastructure facilities all over China.

b) Building from Beijing to Guangzhou a multi-level air defense network to protect the mainland coast from Taiwan and U.S. air strikes during any conflict around the Taiwan Strait.

New air-defense systems in this network include the following:

• improved domestic 25-mm and 35-mm anti-aircraft artillery models;

• domestic QW-1,QW-2, HN-5, and FM-6 portable anti-aircraft missiles;

• domestic low-altitude FM-series air defense missiles (ADMs) and Type-95 combination missile-gun air defense systems (copied from Russia's Tunguska missile-gun system);

• mid-altitude ADM systems, including the Chinese-made HQ-7, Russian-made Tor-M1, and the latter's Chinese clone, the HQ-17;

• high-altitude ADM systems, namely, China's FT-2000, Russia's S-300 PMU1, and the latter's Chinese variant, the HQ-15. Units of the best Russian high-altitude ADM system, the 400-km-range Triumf S-400, were also delivered to PLA by September 2001.

Almost all these systems are largely or entirely based on Russian technology.

In the very near future, China's air-defense network will be enhanced by deployment of several Russian-made A-50 AWACS aircraft and launch of reconnaissance satellite constellations. (3) Copying Russia's "sixth-generation warfare" concept and technologies.

In practice this means the active and comprehensive use of Russian army expertise and technology necessary for fielding "super-advanced" elite forces not inferior to the U.S. and NATO forces which participated in the Yugoslav War.

Russian and Chinese strategists hold that the major trends in realization of "sixth-generation warfare" include the following:

• Construction of modern information warfare systems (advanced computer networks for troop command and control, as well as sophisticated tools for destruction of enemy networks);

• Broad introduction of precision-guided munitions (long-range guided missiles);

• Establishment of a five-dimensional battlefield (with ground, naval, air, space and electromagnetic components or dimensions);

• Development of sophisticated "asymmetric warfare" techniques, extremely suitable for terrorist strikes against developed nations.

There is evidence that the PLA and Russian army are helping each other in implementing this sixth-generation warfare concept.

Realization of these three directions – definitely overlapping in some ways – will become a real force multiplier for the PLA. Already the PLA – and especially its "striking fist" concentrated near the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea – is much stronger than it was only two years ago. This "striking fist" will be further enhanced and upgraded in 2002.

In addition to the aforementioned three major directions, China and Russia in September-October 2001 accelerated the implementation of earlier concluded military-technological pacts: the delivery from Russia and production in China, with Russian technology, of advanced fighters and airborne missiles, new destroyers, diesel-electric and nuclear submarines, "super-advanced" missile craft, and state-of-the-art ordnance for the PLA ground troops. This should be considered as the most serious consequence of the Sino-Russian alliance.

Editor's Note: NewsMax has just released the new audiotape set "CIA Files: Defector Reveals Russia's Secret War Plans." You can hear for yourself exactly what Col. Stanislav Lunev, the highest-ranking officer ever to defect from Russia, told the CIA. For more info, CLICK HERE.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council. He is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

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