Charles R. Smith
Wednesday, Nov. 7, 2001

U.S. defense officials have confirmed that China is preparing to test a new missile capable of delivering nuclear warheads directly to the United States.

The Chinese Army Second Artillery Corps is preparing to test its new Dong Feng 31, or "East Wind," ICBM during the next few days. The DF-31 reportedly can carry a single 3-megaton H-bomb or three 90-kiloton nuclear warheads. The missile has an official range of over 4,800 miles.

The Dong Feng 31 reportedly is equipped with U.S. missile and warhead technology that was obtained by China through espionage and legal and illegal technology transfers from the Clinton administration. It is expected that the Chinese army will declare the DF-31 operational within the next 12 months.

Chinese Navy Missile

The new PLA long-range weapon test comes only days after a Chinese navy test of a similar submarine-launched nuclear-tipped missile. The China navy test of a Julang 2, or "Great Wave," missile took place three weeks ago in an area located off the coast of north central China.

U.S. intelligence sources recorded a "pop-up" test of the JL-2 from a specially modified Chinese Golf-class diesel submarine. The test simulated the first step in a submarine-launched ballistic missile firing by ejecting the missile from its tube. In an actual launch, the missile's engine would be ignited after clearing the submarine.

The Chinese navy plans to deploy the JL-2 missile aboard China's newest ballistic missile submarine, known as the Type 094. The Chinese navy reportedly will take command of the first JL-2-equipped Type 094 submarine in the next 12 months.

"From open sources, one cannot assess the real range of the JL-2," noted Richard Fisher, a senior fellow and defense analyst at the Jamestown Foundation.

"Most sources note it is the sea-borne counterpart to the DF-31, which is credited with a 8,000 km (4,800 mile) range. However, there is some unconfirmed reporting that the JL-2 may have longer range."

U.S. Navy sources expressed concern that a JL-2-armed submarine could sail to within a few hundred miles of the U.S. West Coast. Such a move would place West Coast cities at "point-blank" range, enabling the Chinese submarine to shower Los Angeles or San Francisco with nuclear warheads. The move would also place most – if not all – U.S. cities within range of the H-bomb-equipped missile.

"It is likely that the goal for the JL-2 is to be able to reach the western U.S. from the Yellow Sea, an area that the PLA can defend with near-current ship and aircraft resources. But of course, if the Type 094 SSBN is able to reach launch points outside this area, the JL-2's reach will increase," stated Fisher.

"India also fears this new SLBM, as it expects that the PLA will produce enough Type 094 SSBNs to pose a credible second strike presence in the Indian Ocean," noted Fisher.

New Russian Missile

The Chinese missile tests are taking place at the same time Russia is trying to sell a new supersonic land attack missile. Russian missile maker NPO Mashinostroyenia announced in October that it was introducing a new version of the SS-N-26 Yahont cruise missile.

The Yahont ramjet-powered missile can reach targets up to 162 nautical miles away at speeds in excess of 1,500 miles an hour. The Yahont was originally designed to be an anti-ship attack missile, but NPO Mash is now offering a new version called the Yahont-M that can strike land targets with "extreme accuracy."

The deadly Yahont missile is being offered for sale to Iran, India and China. The missile can be air-launched, sea-launched or even launched from a submerged submarine through a torpedo tube. The Yahont reportedly flies at treetop level at a blistering speed of over 2.6 times the speed of sound.

NPO Mash is offering the Yahont-M in combination with the Kondor-E targeting satellite. Russian officials are offering to sell high-resolution satellite data to program the Yahont missile for land targets or even turn over a complete Kondor-E satellite with a radar designation targeting system.

The space-based targeting combination is being offered for export "to countries that lack the over-the-horizon targeting capability" required to operate the Yahont.

China and Iran in Space

U.S. officials are concerned because China reportedly may arm newly-purchased Russian navy vessels with the deadly Yahont missile. While China may not elect to purchase the Kondor-E satellite, it can easily modify a newly-developed SMMS imaging satellite to supply the same space-based targeting information.

According to U.S. defense officials, China and Iran are jointly developing the SMMS, or small multi-mission spacecraft. The 1,034-lb. satellite will carry a low-resolution CCD camera and telecommunications systems.

Iranian space engineers were in Beijing in September reviewing progress on the joint space satellite program. The SMMS satellite is scheduled for launch in 2004 atop a Chinese booster rocket.

China already has a mature medium resolution space imaging satellite program. However, the SMMS will allow the PRC and Iran to improve missile targeting and autonomous military reconnaissance. China has reportedly also offered similar military satellite capabilities to Pakistan.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
China/Taiwan
Russia
Middle East
Missile Defense

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