Dr. Alexandr Nemets and Dr. Thomas Torda
Thursday, Nov. 22, 2001

In our article published by NewsMax on Nov. 14, we predicted:

Regardless of what happens between the U.S. and Russia, cooperation between the Russian Army and the PLA [China’s People’s Liberation Army] will still flourish, the flow of Russian arms and weapon production technology to China will continue to rise, and Russian concessions in regard to the ABM Treaty won't exceed limits permitted by [Chinese] President Jiang [Zemin].

Alas, results of the "historical summits" in Washington and Texas in effect bore out this prediction:

1. The two sides failed to reach any agreement on the 1972 ABM treaty, despite great efforts by the U.S. government. And on Nov. 20, according to international reports, Russian President Putin and Chinese President Jiang held a phone conversation during which Putin briefed his Chinese counterpart on the summit talks last week with U.S. President George W. Bush and reaffirmed his commitment to the ABM treaty. Jiang also said there is no change in his stance on the ABM treaty.

Putin obediently follows Jiang's instructions. By the way, almost all the 'new policy toward Russia' – originating around June 2001 – was about a hiatus or at least slowdown in the Sino-Russian strategic-military alliance. Did this policy succeed? Answer for yourself.

Indeed, no split emerged between Moscow and Beijing. Careful study of Chinese-language newspapers published in the Far East and New York up to Nov. 15 confirms this fact.

2. The U.S. and Russian sides basically agreed to reduce the number of nuclear warheads down to about 2,000 by 2010. It is hard to imagine a better gift to China's leaders. Beijing for many years has claimed that the U.S. and Russia should reduce their nuclear stockpiles several times.

Let's suppose (though it is rather improbable) that nothing serious will happen in the world up to 2010 and that by that year Russia will have some 1,500 warheads, with some 2,500 in the U.S. How many strategic nuclear warheads will China have by this time?

The answer is very predictable: at least the same number as the U.S. – in the very best case.

As shown in the authors’ recent paper, "Great Comparison" (to be published in a few days at the American Foreign Policy Council website, www.afpc.org), China at present has absolutely no economic or technological limitations on serial production of the comparatively advanced DF-31 mobile ICBMs, each with 3 MIRVed warheads; "094 Project” strategic submarines, equipped with JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (16 missiles per sub, 4 MIRVed warheads per missile); and HN-3 strategic air-launched land-attack cruise missiles.

All this weaponry is at least 90% based on Russian technology; and Russia continues to aid China in developing and producing these and similar arms.

As a result, by 2010 China could easily have 2,000-3,000 nuclear warheads targeting U.S. territory – with all the ensuing consequences.

Russia has no money for preserving a huge nuclear potential to deter the U.S. nuclear arsenal. China will do this work. So, results of the summit are not only close to zero; they are counterproductive.

Additional Cards up Putin's Sleeve

President Putin on Oct. 11 told a Moscow meeting of the Congress of Russian Compatriots Abroad that Moscow must do more to help these compatriots than it has in the past, when efforts to reach out to them were hampered by "bureaucratism and indifference.”

He said he hopes that ethnic Russians abroad will feel at one with Russia and will help Russia to integrate into the international community. Meanwhile, Dmitriy Rogozin, chairman of the Duma’s International Relations Committee, said Russia should create an international organization to defend the rights of ethnic Russians abroad, and that the parliament (Duma) must adopt a law on the national cultural status of the Russian people who, he said, are the core of the Russian Federation.

Rogozin also proposed forming election districts abroad, so that ethnic Russians outside Russia could send their deputies to the Russian Duma.

The congress was held in the Column Palace of Unions House, in the center of Moscow, in an environment of extra security. Guests from 47 nations (14 former Soviet republics and 33 countries of the "Far Abroad," including the U.S. and Canada) attended the congress, along with leaders of the Russian Orthodox Church, Deputy Prime Minister Christenko, former Prime Minister Chernomyrdin, and renowned ultra-nationalist Zhirinovsky.

This congress definitely increased the Kremlin’s influence – and even control – over the ethnic Russian community abroad. The status of the U.S. and Canadian Russian community, now numbering over 2 million, is of especial concern now.

Of course, former Soviet/Russian citizens of Jewish origin are not swallowing Moscow’s bait. The same goes for Russian-speaking Baptists, Evangelists and Adventists; they have no illusions about Moscow’s rhetoric.

But several tens of thousands of ethnic Russians have become the object of very intensive treatment by the Kremlin and its foreign envoys; this work has already borne fruit. The rift among Russian-language papers published in the U.S. and Canada reflects the seriousness of the situation. At all costs, Moscow should be prevented from establishing a "fifth column" here.

In late October, according to Moscow media reports, the visa-issuing procedures at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow were greatly simplified. The ties between Moscow and its supporters (agents) in this country can now activate. And it is well known that the Kremlin and FSB (former KGB) prefer to use criminals for various "delicate missions."

In any case, vigilance is not the worst quality in these uneasy times.

Dr. Alexandr V. Nemets is a consultant to the American Foreign Policy Council. He is co-author of "Chinese-Russian Military Relations, Fate of Taiwan and New Geopolitics."

Dr. Thomas J. Torda has been a Chinese linguist specializing in science and technology with FBIS, and a Chinese/Russian defense technology consultant with the Office of Naval Intelligence.

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